“If you’re Burch Smith, you would love to be able to hand the ball off to somebody in the eighth inning,” A’s analyst Dallas Braden said on the broadcast as Smith tossed his warm-up pitches. In the moment, it sounded optimistic, maybe even a tad foolhardy. Saying something like that is a nice way to remind Oakland fans watching at home that a bad start does not mean hope is lost, and that their team is very much still in the game. But expecting any reliever to go get 11 outs when the starter could only achieve 10 is a pretty tough ask, especially when it’s a 30-year-old journeyman who owns a career ERA north of 6.00.
Manaea’s performance, meanwhile, was quite unusual for Oakland starters. Here are the most valuable rotations in baseball right now:
The Cubs and Reds have stellar rotations that have been brought down by woeful bullpens, while the White Sox ‘pen has had to lift up its starters. The A’s, however, are getting the best of both. Their pitchers have been worth a combined 2.9 WAR through 12 games — the best mark in all of baseball, as well as a driving force in Oakland’s current five-game winning streak and their first-place spot in the AL West.
To call this hot start to the season a shock would be a bit misleading, as the team finished with the eighth-most valuable pitching staff in the majors a year ago. That being said, it was difficult to know exactly what we should expect from this staff entering 2020. Of the six pitchers who made at least 10 starts for Oakland last year, three — Brett Anderson, Homer Bailey, and Tanner Roark — left in the offseason. It didn’t take much brainpower to determine who might fill those spots, with Manaea set to rejoin the staff after missing most of last season with an injury and top prospects A.J. Puk and Jesus Luzardo ready to take on significant major league roles for the first time. But whether or not Manaea would return to form or the rookies would actually settle in quickly were entirely different questions.
Look no further than Wednesday’start for a microcosm of Manaea’s season so far. He struck out five batters in 3.1 innings while walking just one, and he got a total of nine whiffs on 73 pitches. His evening ended early, however, after five of the 10 balls in play against him fell for hits, and one of the two fly balls he allowed left the yard. That funky batted ball luck has affected Manaea for all three of his starts so far, leading to an 8.03 ERA in 12.1 innings but just a 3.39 FIP and 3.15 xFIP. As for the rookies, we have yet to see Puk in action this year due to a shoulder injury, but Luzardo is off to a good start, throwing five shutout innings against Texas on Tuesday and posting a 0.77 ERA and 2.21 FIP through his first 11.2 innings.
The returning members from last season’s rotation have impressed as well. Frankie Montas was dominating opponents to the tune of a 2.63 ERA and 3 WAR through his first 16 starts last season before an 80-game PED suspension stopped his breakout year in its tracks. He hasn’t missed a beat since returning, tossing seven innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts on Sunday in the longest outing of the season for an Oakland pitcher, and he now holds a 2.25 ERA and 2.73 FIP through his first 16 frames. Chris Bassitt has also been impressive through 9.2 innings of work this year — allowing just one run and one walk while striking out 12 — after his own breakout in 2019.
The A’s rotation has been outstanding, but because the team has been methodical in stretching out its starters over the first couple weeks of the season, the bullpen has had to work an almost equal number of innings as starters have. So far, however, that hasn’t been an impediment. Look at the production the A’s are getting out of their relievers through the first 12 games of the year.
I know it’s a 12-game sample, but those are some extremely low numbers! When nearly everyone in your bullpen is rocking a sub-3.00 FIP, you’re going to be in a really good position to have success. There’s going to be some home run regression at some point — the bullpen has allowed a grand total of two in 52 innings — and Luzardo is in the rotation now after making two relief appearances, which means a weaker pitcher will take his bullpen spot going forward. But it isn’t as if we didn’t expect Oakland’s bullpen to be good. They were the fourth-most valuable pen in the majors last year and notably had the lowest HR/FB rate in baseball too.
And after the first few games of the season, they’ve gone totally lights-out. Over the past six games, the A’s bullpen has thrown 22.2 innings and allowed two runs. Both of those have been given up by Yusmeiro Petit — remove him from the picture, and the rest of the relievers haven’t allowed a single run in their last 19.2 innings of work. That’s been instrumental in the team’s current win streak — three of Oakland’s last five wins have come via comeback efforts that were made possible through stingy relief work.
We’ve covered a few impressive individual pitchers this week who have started this season brilliantly, from Zach Plesac to Shane Bieber to Dustin May. When it comes to the A’s, however, there’s no single arm grabbing all the attention. Through the first 12 games of the year, the entire pitching staff is pulling the sled. Perhaps it’s time to take a cue from Dallas Braden and start expecting the best from them.
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