Meg Rowley: Hi everyone – thanks for chatting with us! We’ll be getting started here shortly.

Thurman15: Brandon Lowe batting in the 5 slot is not wise. He is a lefty against Framber (a lefty). And Lowe has been horrendous in the playoffs.

Meg Rowley: Lowe has been in a slump, but this year was actually better against lefties, and has a 127 career wRC+ against LHP.

Meg Rowley: Also a good chance to plug Ben’s piece on Lowe! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-brandon-lowe-broken/

Lzfreak: Baseball!

Meg Rowley: Base. Ball.

Derek: This has been a super weird series. I hope tonight is no different!

Meg Rowley:

David Laurila: Hello baseball fans. The aesthetically-pleasing — yes they are — Rays are one win away from the World Series. The displeasing-to-many –yes they are — Astros are two wins away.

MickDeBrique: How does this chat system work?

Meg Rowley: We take many, but not all, of the questions and endeavor to have fun.

LFC Mike: Before first pitch..Meg.. how excited are you about the young Mariners? Looking forward to Kelenic next year.

Meg Rowley: The system is good, and the prospect of a home grown core is neat, and they’ll need to spend money in free agency.

Meg Rowley: We have been to the moon, but struggle with bullpen door latches. Humans are the best.

Derek: I think those poll results might reflect a wee bit of wishful thinking

David Laurila: When the Red Sox came back from down 3-0 vs the Yankees in 2004, they won nail-biters in games 4 and 5, one of them on a walk-off home run. The Astros have won games 4 and 5 in nail-biters, one on a walk-off home run. Someone might want to give Framber Valdez some red dye.

Meg Rowley: ‘Stros are clearly in better shape now than at various points in the season, and they out-hit tampa in some respects in the first three games, but they were the No. 1 seed for a reason.

Meg Rowley: It took 5 pitches for shadow talk.

Derek: There’s no research out there supporting the idea that shadows have that huge of an impact is there?

Lzfreak: What are people’s opinions on the 3 man booth?

David Laurila: Two-person booths are usually better, but a three is fine with the right mix. This on is solid.

Meg Rowley: Everything that I have seen has been pretty inconclusive – it is the sort of thing that makes intuitive sense as a problem, but hasn’t been proven as far as I know.

Meg Rowley: I know the hitters discussed having a hard time picking up the ball early in the series

Al: Who’s the umpire behind the plate?

Meg Rowley: Tim Timmons, per GameDay

David Laurila: Interesting to see these throws to first. That’s Altuve on base, not Joe Morgan.

David Laurila: If any of you missed it, Dusty Baker compared Altuve and Joe Morgan to Mighty Mouse yesterday. In Baker’s words, “Mighty was a bad little dude.”

Lzfreak: Tim Timmons is an 80 grade umpire name

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Strike em out throw em out!

Meg Rowley: No first inning home run – shocking, truly.

David Laurila: Like I said, that was Altuve on base, not Joe Morgan. Jay Jaffe brought up Morgan’s fantastic stolen base success rate in the latest FanGraphs audio, which went up today.

JBJ: Snell dialed one up to 98 MPH, seems to have his swing and miss stuff tonight

Meg Rowley: Hardest pitch he’s throw this season, if my Savant query is right

David Laurila: I asked Kevin Cash in today’s media session if he feels his team has been putting up good at bats, and he said no. He feels his hitters haven’t been putting pressure on the pitcher, nor on the defense. He suggested that they have been putting pressure on themselves.

Meg Rowley: Any other interesting nuggets from that media session, David?

David Laurila: Nothing stands out, mostly because I didn’t do Diusty’s.

Meg Rowley: If you’re a player traded away from San Diego, do you think you have the highest average city downgrade?

David Laurila: Randy Arozarena came into today 8 for 21 in this series. Willy Adames, Mike Brosseau, Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, Hunter Renfroe, and Joey Wendle came in a combined 8 for 74.

Meg Rowley: So what you’re saying is, they’re due.

Derek: Almost certainly, Meg – unless you’re just really into New York or something I guess

Meg Rowley: It is good, I suppose, to remember that people like living all sorts of places.

melon: 12 runs one inning let’s go Rays flap flap

Meg Rowley: Is “flap flap” the preferred rallying cry of Rays fans?

David Laurila: Rays hitters are due, but not in the same way Astros hitters were due earlier in the series. Dusty was happy with the at bats; the bad luck they were hitting into was the issue.

Meg Rowley: I know the efficacy of the shift is disputed, but the positioning of the Rays had to be maddening for Houston.

melon: I’m definitely trying my hardest to make it so

Sea Pancake: I really hope so. Rays are such an underappreciated mascot and I feel like Tampa doesn’t market them enough!

David Laurila: Not only have the Rays been positioning well, they’ve been playing clean D.

Meg Rowley: Indeed – clean routes. Though they seem to enjoy making Ji-Man stretch.

David Laurila: Dusty Baker suggested the other day that Joey Wendle has been playing third base like Brooks Robinson and Graig Nettles.

David Laurila: That was, ahem, a clean turn of two.

Mister Puppy: Clairvoyant much?

Meg Rowley: Quite a good player, that Wendle.

David Laurila: If only I were Clairvoyant. I do have a neighbor names Claire.

Meg Rowley: Did the ball boys travel from Tampa, or are these the Petco regulars?

Meg Rowley: (and Houston, for that matter)

Steven S: Wendle has traditionally been a utility player with the Rays, but I wonder if they think about making his primary position 3rd base. Really impressed by his work at the hot corner this postseason.

David Laurila: I don’t think Wendle has enough of a track record to be firmly slotted in at third. Not at 30 years old.

Jordan: do you still get a lot of jabs at Houston Astros hitters in these chats?

David Laurila: There weren’t many when I chatted a few days ago. They’re a bit tiresome, frankly.

Meg Rowley: I think there’s room for discussion of the obvious, but like all things, best in moderation.

David Laurila: A high pitch count early is not something the Rays want.

Meg Rowley: I do wonder what kind of reception they’ll get when fans are back in the ballpark – we tend to have long memories.

Jeremy: Does it look like Snell is struggling to find the zone or that the gameplan is to get the Astros to chase?

David Laurila: The Astros don’t chase a lot, so I think Snell is just missing.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I get that things like AsTeRiSkS gets old, but I am sick on seeing men with contempt for rules and decency get away with it. Seeing unapologetic cheaters celebrate is infuriating.

David Laurila: I’m more offended by a sub-.500 team in the postseason, frankly.

Steven S: The Rays do a good job of getting their young guys to trust their stuff and throw strikes, but if feels like Snell has been nibbling at the edges all year. What needs to change for Snell?

Lzfreak: Maybe it’s just me but every time I watch Snell I come away unimpressed. Lots of high pitch counts and early exits

Smok: If it’s just this season it can be accepted. If next season has a similar structure….

Meg Rowley: This season was his lowest in-zone rate in the majors, and I think some of this is missing, but he hasn’t been all in-zone in the past.

Meg Rowley: I think it is good practice for people who screw up as badly as Houston has to apologize and do so convincingly – sadly think they’ve taken ownership’s cue on that score.

Meg Rowley: Just haven’t had a great track record of understanding that forgiveness doesn’t happen on the offender’s time table.

Quadrangular: Has the industry opinion of defense shifted (pun not intended) at all over the last few years? Seems to oscillate more dramatically on a year by year basis. Remember when announcers were lauding how well setup the Championship Cubs were with their world-beating defense?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think you’ll ever find an analyst who thinks it is good to have a bad defense. I do think a lot of folks are open to less good fielders if their team can position them effectively and they possess a potent bat.

David Laurila: FWIW: I haven’t checked if they’re reasonably synced up with TV, but the Astros and Rays both have top-notch radio broadcast duos. (Not suggesting that this TV trio isn’t good.)

melon: “Strobe effect”!!

Meg Rowley: At least that’s a nice bit of phrasing

Derek: A run! Not driven in by a homer!

Meg Rowley: In this economy!?

David Laurila: Ladies and gentlemen, a run scored without a ball leaving the yard. Just like the old days! Run and tell old gramps.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: KK falling over the dugout fence…

Meg Rowley: Be careful of your wrist, dude!

5 Run Homer: What happens to Adames when Wander comes up?

Guest: Adames had such a nice year, what do you think of his outlook? I’m definitely a fan

Meg Rowley: I would imagine he moves to second, when the time comes – and that isn’t even all of the infield glut in that system.

Meg Rowley: Adames isn’t a free agent until 2025, and they love versatile infield dudes.

David Laurila: With that curveball, Valdez is a little like late-career Frank Tanana, but with more velo.

Meg Rowley: Now, your next question is, where do they put Brujan if Adames is at second, and to that I say, I don’t know, but gosh are they lousy with options.

Meg Rowley: (a moment, I need to locate my water bottle)

Derek: And where does Lowe, Brandon go?

Meg Rowley: and if they push Vidal out to center, where does Josh Lowe go?!

Quadrangular: Tampa seems to recognize their own glut of middle infield talent when considering the trades they’ve pulled off. When you have depth, utilize it!

Meg Rowley: Indeed – much like SD, the consolidation tends to net them interesting pieces.

Sea Pancake: And what even happened to Nate Lowe???

David Laurila: Just looked at my Twitter feed and someone was bringing up Mike Davis’s fantasy points. My first thought was, ‘What does a 1980s Oakland A’s outfielder have to do with fantasy points?’ (Presumably there is a modern-day Mike Davis.)

Meg Rowley: They pulled him off the CS roster I think? For Diaz, I believe.

Derek: That Mike Davis is a running back for the Panthers!

Meg Rowley: (and having a surprisingly good season!)

Wire Fan: Are the Astros going to end up regretting the Altuve extension?

David Laurila: I think Altuve has another two or three really good seasons in him.

Meg Rowley: I don’t think he’s as bad as this, but it is hard to know what effect the banging scheme had, or how complete our understanding of their cheating is. Tony Adams analysis had him using the scheme less often than others, but it feels naive to look at the drop and not wonder.

Meg Rowley: he had two good years after ’17, and he’s running a BABIP 50 points lower than he usually does in a weird season

Jeremy: Lowe was dropped when Austin Meadows returned from injury.

Meg Rowley: That’s right – thank you.

David Laurila: Not that the last week-plus portends his future, but Altuve came into tonight 14 for 34 with five home runs over his last nine games.

David Laurila: Altuve had a 138 wRC+ in 2019, and he’s only 30, so I think this year was an outlier.

Meg Rowley: Another good reason not to cheat – when you just have a weird down year, people assume something more!

Dean P. Simmer: @David you had me at “late career Frank Tanana”

David Laurila: Early-career Tanana was smoke.

melon: Do you buy Correa’s assertion that Altuve didn’t want to be involved? (sorry if this topic has been run into the ground)

David Laurila: I have no idea if Altuve wanted to be involved or not, but I have had a few hitters tell me they’d rather not know what’s coming (as hard as that is to believe). One said that he has a better chance of hitting a slider is he’s simply reacting to it, as opposed to sitting on one.

Mick: Are the cardboard fans in the stadium Padres fans? Or a mix of Rays/Astros?

Meg Rowley: I think they’re more neutral now – first responders and broadcasters – at least behind home.

Meg Rowley: Hunter Renfroe looks like he could be related to Mike Trout.

Meg Rowley: Of potential interest to the group

Grant: If Renfroe and Trout are related, only one of them got the gene that makes you swing at two straight curves in the dirt

Meg Rowley: heh – I didn’t say they are related, just that they look like they could be.

David Laurila: Kevin Cash is on the short list of baseball’s best managers.

Meg Rowley: He’s terrific – and so strange to think he’s now the third longest tenured AL manager?

Meg Rowley: (my internet is being a little pesky – I’ll be right back, need to power cycle the router)

Dreen: TB getting a lot of credit for positioning correctly. I would assume that everyone can do positioning right in this day and age of analytics. Do you think TB positions better?

David Laurila: Tigers radio voice Dan Dickerson was on FanGraphs audio today, and one thing he talked about was how positioning paired with reads/instinct is optimal. The data may show you want to be in particular spot, but the specific situation and read could mean you should be two steps in either direction.

melon: Who else is on that short list of best managers for you?

David Laurila: Bob Melvin for one.

David Laurila: Francona, Counsell, Baldelli are three more.

David Laurila: Cora and Hinch are (were?) outstanding managers.

Drew: enjoyed seeing valdez come right back with that deuce and win the at-bat and mental battle

David Laurila: Pitchers with plus hooks can be a lot of fun to watch.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Supposing the score stays as is, do you let Snell face the top of the order again?

Meg Rowley: (am returned, sorry about that)

David Laurila: Snell is at 71 pitches, so he’s maybe around 90 by the time he reaches third-tim-through. Hmmm. That’s a tough call, but if he looks good next inning, I say yes.

Derek: What exactly do you look for when you’re evaluating managers? The most obvious thing to us laypeople are things like shifting and bullpen management… What else?

David Laurila: I think good people skills is crucial. Giving all the information available, most all managers “should” be able to make smart in-game decisions.

Astros_fan: Hi. New to this. Just wanted to hop in and say this season has been difficult as a ‘Stros fan. I feel like a lot of people at Fangraphs have taken a decently balanced approach to things. It’s one of those situations where there are so many things that are actually wrong and deserving repudiation, but others which feel like they are unfair. No idea how to try and say anything nuanced in a chat like this, and don’t want to distract from the game. But if anyone wants to talk about it, I’d welcome the discourse. reddit’s r/baseball has really hurt me in ways I just wasn’t prepared for. I just want to talk thru some of it.

David Laurila: Fandom isn’t always simple.

staz: John Farrell went from WS win to out the door because he lost the Red Sox clubhouse.

David Laurila: Can’t vouch for the veracity of that, but it’s true that you need control of the clubhouse (ideally without a steel fist).

Meg Rowley: Managing people is really hard (uh, David can testify how I am not perfect at it) and I can’t imagine doing it with 25ish dudes with the mentality pro athletes have. That part should get talked about more imo.

Dreen: One observation by reading the posts in SBNation is that everyone believes the announcers are “against their team”. Clearly there must be some kind of confirmation bias. Now, with that said, has there been more “objective” measurement on whether playoff tv announcers are objective or favor one team?

David Laurila: I was at Wrigley in the last week of Joe Maddon’s Cubs tenure, and asked him about managerial shelf life. He admitted that a manager’s voice/message will often get stale after a matter years.

Meg Rowley: I haven’t seen an objective analysis – I was impressed with how Joe Davis and Jason Benetti dealt with the Wild Card Series games that involved the teams they call all season.

Guest: As a Patriots fan, my advice to Astros fans is to accept the role of villain and root for your team.

staz: That’s the theory on SoSH anyway, Mr. Laurila ?

Meg Rowley: I also think it can lead to some healthy distance – the issue is with the behavior of those on the team, not the fans.

David Laurila: I don’t visit SoSh much these days. Should maybe drop in more often.

Astros_fan: Yeah – I agree David Laurila. I think the part that hurts worst is some of the criticism of Altuve. I have had a few personal interactions with him, and I can honestly attest to how sweet and decent a person he is. Anyway! enough psycho-therapy from me. Just appreciate y’all letting me just air my feelings. ? Wish the best for everyone on this thread and on the field today!

David Laurila: Somewhat lost in the cheating scandal is the fact that there are a lot of good people in the Astros clubhouse. That doesn’t mean they should all be left off the hook, but we should be careful not to overtly criticize each and every individual for the actions of others.

Derek: Not suggesting Astros_fan or anyone else do this – I think it is a certain kind of admirable to stick with a team you’ve been a fan of for a while no matter what – but it’s also not impossible (or wrong) to find a new favorite team! I’ve been a Red Sox fan pretty much since I knew what baseball was (2000-ish) and made the decision to finally just stop supporting them after the Betts trade and John Henry’s other various forms of shithousery (which he also employs in England as the owner of Liverpool – and I am a fan of Everton, Liverpool’s intra-city rival so it made it a little easier to just distance myself from Henry altogether), and it’s been great! Still looking for a true new “favorite” team but just watching and following baseball has been fun (well, “fun” for 2020, anyway) this season. So that’s always an option!

David Laurila: Fellow Everton fan here. Tomorrow should be interesting.

it’s true I guess: Blake Snell is an anagram of Ellen’s Balk.

staz: I’m of the opinion that all 30 teams bend the rules, some more than others. Some get caught and some don’t.

David Laurila: I think there were a lot of nervous people around the gam when the Astros scandal emerged.

Guest: I’m with staz, I assume everybody’s looking for an edge. I’m honestly a little surprised at the level of outrage at the Astros.

David Laurila: Success has a way of breeding contempt, so the vitriol isn’t be too surprising. See Patriots, New England.

Meg Rowley: Eh this wasn’t the only sign of a bad culture in that org. They aren’t the only ones to break the rules (they broke them, they didn’t bend them), and not every one who works there is rotten obviously, but they messed up badly and have handled it terribly since.

Derek: Ah, didn’t realize that, David! I am pretty excited for the game (but also emotionally prepared for a typical Everton-style letdown, so…)

David Laurila: Everton fan for 20-plus years. They’ll win ta derby eventually.

Jeremy: For me, the Taubman thing and the organization’s response to that is much more of a reason to hate the Astros than the cheating.

David Laurila: True. Very true.

Meg Rowley: Yup.

5 Run Homer: The Astros thing is more about a moral bankruptcy and what that means than the actual act of cheating

David Laurila: At the risk of stating the obvious, this is a huge situation that could detrmine the outcome.

Meg Rowley: Two run single from Springer.

David Laurila: Springer is going to become a rich man this winter.

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, I’m dropping in for an hour or so

Ben Clemens: A-Rod is livid right now. Successful sacrifice bunt in the playoffs and he didn’t get to announce it!

Ben Clemens: At least Jeter wasn’t doing a guest call.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: This hurts so much, but I deserve it for ascribing higher meanings of justice and right and wrong to a children’s game.

Internet Stranger: “I think there were a lot of nervous people around the gam when the Astros scandal emerged.” They were pretty obviously scapegoated. There were plenty of articles about other team’s sign stealing pursuits for anyone that cared to look.

Ben Clemens: None of us would watch baseball if we didn’t like that feeling of pain

Ben Clemens: It’s nice that it’s inconsequential

Meg Rowley: (It’s the 5th inning)

TCWHY: Whatcha drinking tonight ben

Ben Clemens: Water!

Ben Clemens: But soon, probably a nice Dogfish Head Seaquench Ale

Ben Clemens: My semi-weekly poker game starts at six so I will have my fair share of beers tonight, no need to get started too early

forestation: How much credit should hitters get for hitting grounders “thru the hole,” “against the shift” etc? Isn’t it mostly just luck?

Ben Clemens: I think there are kinda two questions here.

Guest: Do we know what the game 7 pitching matchup would be?

David Laurila: Morton-McCullers, presumably.

Ben Clemens: If you’re saying, do they deserve as much credit as they get? no

Ben Clemens: But hitting it hard makes it more likely to find a hole, for example

Ben Clemens: There’s stuff you can do to improve your chances

Guest: If the Rays win this game, how many times will we hear some combination of the words “2004,” “Red Sox,” and/or “Millar” in the next 24 hours?

David Laurila: Ad infinitum is a Latin term.

Guest: Ben, isn’t the proper strategy for poker to drink water while everyone *else* at the table is drinking beer?

Ben Clemens: Kinda depends if you’re trying to win a few nickels from your friends or have fun

Internet Stranger: Five game’s worth of babip are evening out in this inning it feels like

Ben Clemens: Seeeeriously