2021 ZiPS Projections: Toronto Blue Jays

November 18, 2020

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays.

ZiPS Projections

20212020

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Batters

The Jays offense did what it needed to in 2020, with the team doing an excellent job filling some of the holes in the lineup, especially in the outfield. I was admittedly skeptical of the motley crew of players who aren’t related to former big leaguers, but most of the personnel decisions worked out solidly for the organization. Teoscar Hernandez finished in the top 10 in exit velocity; ZiPS now has him projected for a slugging percentage over .500 in 2021, enough to make him a legitimate starter rather than an interesting, one-dimensional bat. This is also the least skeptical ZiPS has been of Lourdes Gurriel Jr..

But while the outfield now looks like a decent group, the trickiest thing is still Randal Grichuk in center. I appreciate the Jays’ willingness to get creative and use a player who doesn’t look like a traditional fit at the position, but Grichuk still isn’t particularly good and his short-season 2020 stats were more good than great. After Grichuk, the team’s center field options aren’t all that appealing and I’d be inclined to improve the big league club’s depth at the position.

There’s a bit of disagreement between ZiPS and Steamer about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ZiPS is more worried about Vladito than Steamer is (conversely, ZiPS likes Bo Bichette better than Steamer does). I’m not actually sure which projection system I’m closer to personally. Guerrero’s raw stats in the majors haven’t been mind-blowing by any stretch of the imagination, but he also doesn’t turn 22 until just before the start of the season. If you translated his actual major league performances to Double-A in 2019 and Triple-A in 2020, perfectly reasonable levels for his age, I doubt anyone would be disappointed. Still, his ceiling has to be slightly lower now, his conditioning is meh, and he has quickly moved the wrong way on the defensive spectrum.

That being said, I’m probably exaggerating the weakness of his ZiPS projection. ZiPS continues to expect him to be fine, it’s just not sure when; it still projects his average career at 50 WAR, only three less than it did before last season. While I haven’t run everyone yet, that would still put him in the top 15 for rest-of-career projections.

Pitchers

Going into the season, I was really concerned about how well the Blue Jays would patch their pitching together after Hyun Jin Ryu. Those worries turned out to be warranted, as apart from Ryu and the six starts the team got from Taijuan Walker, the rotation’s performance was pretty bleak. But it wasn’t so bleak that it kept the team from making the greatly expanded playoffs, finishing above .500. I’m actually more positive about the team’s hurlers this time around. Ryu pitched as well in the AL East as the projections hoped, so there’s much less worry there and ZiPS remains a fan of Robbie Ray. Both Ross Stripling and Tanner Roark project to have better seasons than their 2020 as well.

ZiPS is really into Nate Pearson for 2021 (another disagreement with Steamer). Only one other pitcher has gotten a comp to Jim Palmer at any stage of his career: Mike Soroka. I think the Jays would be quite happy if Pearson turned out to be as solid as Soroka was, pre-injury of course. The larger question is how durable Pearson will be, though 2020 didn’t provide much of a good answer.

I really hope the Jays are aggressive in adding to the bullpen this winter. Outside of Rafael Dolis and Jordan Romano, there’s just not a whole lot of zazz, zork, kapowza, or anything else that puts mazuma in the bank. This is a team that really could have justified claiming Brad Hand (not that there wasn’t company on that score). Average relievers tend to have an ERA+ of 108 or so, though that figure was lower in 2020; only the two relievers named above project to clear that mark. Toronto’s a team on the edge of the playoff race in a tough division and every win added is a high-leverage one.

One pedantic note for 2021: For the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Bo Bichette	R	23	SS	545	504	77	144	33	6	23	95	37	94	27	8
Cavan Biggio	L	26	2B	609	514	84	118	26	3	22	75	85	169	14	3
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	R	22	1B	601	544	77	150	33	5	26	98	50	95	2	1
Teoscar Hernandez	R	28	DH	539	489	76	121	24	3	35	90	44	174	11	5
Alejandro Kirk	R	22	C	386	347	47	90	24	2	10	47	34	56	1	0
Danny Jansen	R	26	C	417	361	52	83	17	1	17	60	42	79	1	0
Travis Shaw	L	31	3B	485	424	56	97	20	0	22	64	55	128	3	1
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	R	27	LF	508	474	64	129	27	1	25	79	25	116	6	4
Rowdy Tellez	L	26	1B	497	448	67	117	26	0	27	84	39	114	2	3
Randal Grichuk	R	29	CF	563	523	76	130	29	3	31	90	33	146	3	2
Jonathan Villar	B	30	3B	586	529	66	130	19	2	16	60	50	155	39	11
Breyvic Valera	B	29	2B	483	436	55	117	18	4	9	45	38	51	8	8
Derek Fisher	L	27	LF	398	347	54	79	15	3	18	54	45	128	10	6
Jonathan Davis	R	29	CF	454	398	50	85	18	3	11	45	36	122	14	4
Joe Panik	L	30	2B	464	412	50	104	20	2	7	38	44	55	3	1
Riley Adams	R	25	C	421	376	42	77	16	1	10	38	35	144	3	1
Santiago Espinal	R	26	2B	470	434	50	105	19	2	7	40	27	88	8	6
Kevin Smith	R	24	SS	490	459	51	95	20	2	20	62	23	168	12	5
Reese McGuire	L	26	C	351	316	35	70	13	2	10	33	22	73	3	1
Brandon Drury	R	28	3B	389	358	36	80	19	1	10	39	25	94	1	1
Josh Palacios	L	25	CF	486	440	49	94	18	3	10	44	39	141	11	7
Caleb Joseph	R	35	C	266	249	29	53	11	1	7	25	12	71	0	0
Nick Podkul	R	24	3B	392	348	39	70	15	2	7	32	34	89	7	3
Ryan Noda	L	25	1B	485	412	55	76	19	1	15	55	63	189	8	3
Forrest Wall	L	25	CF	544	494	59	107	22	4	12	49	44	163	16	9
Samad Taylor	R	22	2B	491	437	50	82	22	4	13	49	42	162	24	16
Chavez Young	B	23	CF	519	479	50	100	19	4	10	42	32	143	23	15
Christopher Bec	R	25	C	267	236	24	45	9	1	4	21	26	74	15	3
Cullen Large	B	25	3B	435	395	39	84	19	3	5	31	29	138	4	2
Brock Lundquist	L	25	LF	453	409	45	82	17	2	12	46	34	145	5	4
Mac James	R	28	C	272	248	24	51	6	0	3	17	20	61	1	3
Logan Warmoth	R	25	2B	418	380	34	70	14	3	3	24	27	142	10	2
Gabriel Guerrero	R	27	RF	485	462	49	108	19	3	14	53	18	134	4	5

Batters – Advanced

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	ISO	BABIP	RC/27	Def	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Bo Bichette	.286	.334	.512	125	.226	.313	6.7	1	4.0	Lou Boudreau
Cavan Biggio	.230	.342	.420	106	.191	.297	5.2	5	3.2	Lou Whitaker
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	.276	.341	.498	124	.222	.293	6.3	2	2.8	Paul Konerko
Teoscar Hernandez	.247	.312	.524	121	.276	.307	5.9	0	2.1	Bob Allison
Alejandro Kirk	.259	.329	.427	104	.167	.285	5.1	1	1.8	Mike Sweeney
Danny Jansen	.230	.322	.424	101	.194	.249	4.8	0	1.8	Jamie Nelson
Travis Shaw	.229	.320	.432	102	.203	.274	4.9	2	1.8	Hank Thompson
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	.272	.311	.492	113	.219	.312	5.6	1	1.8	Rico Carty
Rowdy Tellez	.261	.324	.500	119	.239	.293	5.8	1	1.7	Mario Valdez
Randal Grichuk	.249	.297	.493	109	.245	.286	5.2	-8	1.5	Chet Lemon
Jonathan Villar	.246	.312	.380	87	.134	.318	4.6	1	1.4	Len Randle
Breyvic Valera	.268	.328	.390	95	.122	.287	4.5	1	1.2	Quilvio Veras
Derek Fisher	.228	.320	.444	105	.216	.303	4.9	2	1.1	Sandy Amoros
Jonathan Davis	.214	.299	.357	78	.143	.279	3.8	3	0.7	Lance Blankenship
Joe Panik	.252	.326	.362	87	.109	.277	4.3	-2	0.6	Dan Rohn
Riley Adams	.205	.285	.332	68	.128	.302	3.2	5	0.6	Lou Marson
Santiago Espinal	.242	.288	.343	71	.101	.289	3.4	7	0.4	Charlie Montoyo
Kevin Smith	.207	.249	.390	70	.183	.277	3.4	4	0.4	Dick Schofield
Reese McGuire	.222	.276	.370	74	.149	.258	3.6	1	0.3	Scott Hatteberg
Brandon Drury	.223	.278	.366	73	.142	.276	3.5	1	0.0	Paul Schaal
Josh Palacios	.214	.282	.336	68	.123	.291	3.2	2	-0.2	Jim Gosger
Caleb Joseph	.213	.257	.349	63	.137	.269	3.1	-1	-0.2	Rick Cerone
Nick Podkul	.201	.284	.316	63	.115	.250	3.1	0	-0.4	Richard Slavik
Ryan Noda	.184	.300	.345	75	.160	.293	3.5	1	-0.5	Doug Snyder
Forrest Wall	.217	.285	.350	72	.134	.298	3.4	-3	-0.5	Rich Becker
Samad Taylor	.188	.262	.346	64	.158	.263	2.8	1	-0.7	Ralph Milliard
Chavez Young	.209	.263	.328	59	.119	.276	2.8	3	-0.8	Stan Javier
Christopher Bec	.191	.271	.288	53	.097	.259	3.0	-7	-1.0	Sean McCraw
Cullen Large	.213	.276	.314	60	.101	.313	3.0	-2	-1.0	Wayne Garrett
Brock Lundquist	.200	.272	.340	65	.139	.278	3.0	1	-1.1	Brian Finley
Mac James	.206	.265	.266	46	.060	.261	2.2	-3	-1.1	Chris Tremie
Logan Warmoth	.184	.248	.261	39	.076	.285	2.3	3	-1.4	James Guerrero
Gabriel Guerrero	.234	.262	.379	71	.145	.299	3.4	-6	-1.7	Shane Mack

Pitchers – Standard

Player	T	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP
Hyun-jin Ryu	L	34	10	6	3.58	25	24	138.3	133	55	19	28	133	3.71
Robbie Ray	L	29	10	8	4.15	30	29	151.7	124	70	24	80	208	4.18
Nate Pearson	R	24	6	4	4.00	24	24	99.0	92	44	14	33	107	4.01
Taijuan Walker	R	28	7	5	4.41	20	20	100.0	101	49	15	36	86	4.67
Trent Thornton	R	27	7	6	4.62	24	22	117.0	120	60	18	36	109	4.37
Ross Stripling	R	31	6	5	4.38	32	16	98.7	100	48	17	26	98	4.25
Simeon Woods Richardson	R	20	12	11	4.90	24	24	141.3	146	77	21	58	117	4.81
Tanner Roark	R	34	8	8	4.93	26	25	133.3	140	73	24	44	121	4.88
Chase Anderson	R	33	6	5	4.85	26	23	115.0	113	62	23	40	107	5.12
Ryan Borucki	L	27	7	6	4.77	30	17	103.7	105	55	15	42	90	4.66
Jacob Waguespack	R	27	6	6	4.81	29	17	103.0	105	55	14	47	89	4.76
Rafael Dolis	R	33	5	3	3.51	54	0	51.3	44	20	5	22	56	3.73
Ken Giles	R	30	3	1	3.18	47	0	45.3	36	16	6	14	63	3.11
Shun Yamaguchi	R	33	7	7	5.00	27	16	113.3	108	63	20	54	125	4.86
Anthony Kay	L	26	8	8	5.09	29	20	115.0	115	65	17	60	108	4.95
Sean Reid-Foley	R	25	7	7	5.05	28	22	112.3	106	63	17	70	117	5.07
Thomas Hatch	R	26	8	8	5.14	31	21	112.0	117	64	17	51	97	4.95
Joey Murray	R	24	9	10	5.23	28	25	125.7	128	73	22	59	114	5.24
Patrick Murphy	R	26	5	5	4.91	20	17	88.0	91	48	11	39	69	4.74
Matt Shoemaker	R	34	3	3	4.71	11	11	57.3	55	30	11	19	55	4.85
A.J. Cole	R	29	5	5	4.81	42	10	86.0	87	46	15	34	86	4.74
Julian Merryweather	R	29	4	4	5.06	18	15	74.7	80	42	13	26	64	4.93
Jordan Romano	R	28	3	2	4.07	49	0	48.7	43	22	8	18	57	4.27
Graham Spraker	R	26	5	5	5.19	23	16	93.7	106	54	14	33	58	5.13
Anthony Bass	R	33	4	3	4.37	49	2	55.7	54	27	7	19	49	4.19
Curtis Taylor	R	25	4	3	4.50	33	3	56.0	54	28	8	25	55	4.57
Yennsy Diaz	R	24	9	10	5.51	26	24	129.0	142	79	21	61	92	5.45
Jake Fishman	L	26	1	0	4.38	44	0	61.7	62	30	9	18	56	4.28
Kirby Snead	L	26	6	4	4.40	51	0	61.3	58	30	6	31	56	4.29
Sam Gaviglio	R	31	3	2	4.43	46	0	63.0	63	31	9	18	54	4.32
Brad Wilson	R	24	4	3	4.45	42	0	54.7	53	27	7	22	53	4.28
Ty Tice	R	24	4	4	4.48	50	0	60.3	57	30	7	34	59	4.57
Justin Dillon	R	27	6	7	5.51	23	17	99.7	114	61	18	34	66	5.41
T.J. Zeuch	R	25	5	6	5.64	19	17	97.3	111	61	17	37	58	5.52
Conor Fisk	R	29	4	5	5.27	41	8	82.0	89	48	15	28	65	5.18
Connor Overton	R	27	1	1	5.06	16	1	32.0	33	18	4	15	26	4.68
Hector Perez	R	25	4	5	5.75	21	18	87.7	91	56	13	64	79	5.67
Dany Jimenez	R	27	4	4	4.89	35	0	46.0	43	25	8	24	54	4.85
Zach Jackson	R	26	4	4	4.93	48	0	65.7	63	36	9	36	64	4.79
Elvis Luciano	R	21	2	3	5.60	24	3	45.0	47	28	7	29	37	5.76
Ryan Dull	R	31	3	3	5.20	47	0	55.3	57	32	12	18	59	4.95
Zach Logue	L	25	5	7	6.05	22	20	105.7	124	71	23	41	73	5.96
Bryan Baker	R	26	4	5	5.79	49	0	51.3	49	33	9	42	60	5.75
Willy Ortiz	R	25	3	5	6.63	17	8	58.3	68	43	13	34	43	6.56
Mike Ellenbest	R	26	3	6	7.23	25	12	74.7	92	60	18	49	47	7.22

Pitchers – Advanced

Player	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BB%	K%	BABIP	ERA+	ERA-	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Hyun-jin Ryu	8.7	1.8	1.2	4.9%	23.4%	.295	126	80	3.1	Herb Pennock
Robbie Ray	12.3	4.7	1.4	12.2%	31.7%	.295	108	92	2.5	Al Leiter
Nate Pearson	9.7	3.0	1.3	7.8%	25.4%	.298	112	89	1.8	Jim Palmer
Taijuan Walker	7.7	3.2	1.4	8.3%	19.7%	.294	102	98	1.4	Bob Porterfield
Trent Thornton	8.4	2.8	1.4	7.1%	21.6%	.304	97	103	1.4	Lary Sorensen
Ross Stripling	8.9	2.4	1.6	6.3%	23.6%	.303	103	97	1.2	Elmer Dessens
Simeon Woods Richardson	7.5	3.7	1.3	9.3%	18.8%	.296	92	109	1.2	Mike Mills
Tanner Roark	8.2	3.0	1.6	7.5%	20.8%	.301	91	110	1.1	Bill Lee
Chase Anderson	8.4	3.1	1.8	8.1%	21.6%	.281	93	108	1.0	Armando Reynoso
Ryan Borucki	7.8	3.6	1.3	9.3%	19.8%	.297	94	106	1.0	Andy Hassler
Jacob Waguespack	7.8	4.1	1.2	10.2%	19.3%	.299	94	107	0.9	Don Stanhouse
Rafael Dolis	9.8	3.9	0.9	10.0%	25.5%	.291	128	78	0.8	Jim Hughes
Ken Giles	12.5	2.8	1.2	7.6%	34.1%	.297	142	71	0.8	Greg McMichael
Shun Yamaguchi	9.9	4.3	1.6	10.8%	25.0%	.297	90	111	0.8	Bobby Munoz
Anthony Kay	8.5	4.7	1.3	11.6%	20.8%	.300	88	113	0.8	Bill Wight
Sean Reid-Foley	9.4	5.6	1.4	13.7%	22.9%	.295	89	112	0.7	Dick Ruthven
Thomas Hatch	7.8	4.1	1.4	10.2%	19.3%	.302	87	114	0.7	Sean White
Joey Murray	8.2	4.2	1.6	10.5%	20.2%	.294	86	116	0.6	Robert Averette
Patrick Murphy	7.1	4.0	1.1	9.9%	17.6%	.299	92	109	0.6	Steve Arlin
Matt Shoemaker	8.6	3.0	1.7	7.8%	22.5%	.280	95	105	0.6	Mark Portugal
A.J. Cole	9.0	3.6	1.6	9.0%	22.9%	.303	93	107	0.6	Rick Lysander
Julian Merryweather	7.7	3.1	1.6	7.9%	19.5%	.302	89	113	0.6	Kyle Snyder
Jordan Romano	10.5	3.3	1.5	8.7%	27.5%	.289	111	90	0.5	Mike Perez
Graham Spraker	5.6	3.2	1.3	7.9%	13.9%	.300	87	115	0.5	Ed Linke
Anthony Bass	7.9	3.1	1.1	8.0%	20.6%	.292	103	97	0.4	Tom Timmermann
Curtis Taylor	8.8	4.0	1.3	10.2%	22.4%	.297	100	100	0.4	Ray Herbert
Yennsy Diaz	6.4	4.3	1.5	10.4%	15.7%	.298	82	123	0.3	Jake Dittler
Jake Fishman	8.2	2.6	1.3	6.8%	21.2%	.298	103	97	0.3	Steve Sharts
Kirby Snead	8.2	4.5	0.9	11.4%	20.6%	.295	102	98	0.2	Mike Cosgrove
Sam Gaviglio	7.7	2.6	1.3	6.7%	20.1%	.293	102	99	0.2	Ron Taylor
Brad Wilson	8.7	3.6	1.2	9.2%	22.3%	.301	101	99	0.2	Ray Herbert
Ty Tice	8.8	5.1	1.0	12.5%	21.8%	.298	100	100	0.2	Sam Nahem
Justin Dillon	6.0	3.1	1.6	7.6%	14.8%	.299	82	123	0.2	Steve Lemke
T.J. Zeuch	5.4	3.4	1.6	8.5%	13.3%	.294	80	125	0.1	Mark Cahill
Conor Fisk	7.1	3.1	1.6	7.7%	18.0%	.297	85	117	0.1	Bill Fischer
Connor Overton	7.3	4.2	1.1	10.5%	18.2%	.299	89	113	0.0	Bill Zuber
Hector Perez	8.1	6.6	1.3	15.3%	18.9%	.305	78	128	0.0	Rich Dorman
Dany Jimenez	10.6	4.7	1.6	11.7%	26.3%	.302	92	109	-0.1	Paul Schneider
Zach Jackson	8.8	4.9	1.2	12.2%	21.8%	.297	91	110	-0.1	Joe Hudson
Elvis Luciano	7.4	5.8	1.4	13.7%	17.5%	.296	80	125	-0.2	Cuddles Marshall
Ryan Dull	9.6	2.9	2.0	7.5%	24.7%	.304	86	116	-0.3	Chuck Crim
Zach Logue	6.2	3.5	2.0	8.5%	15.2%	.300	74	135	-0.4	Jason Cromer
Bryan Baker	10.5	7.4	1.6	17.1%	24.5%	.305	78	129	-0.6	Jeff Smith
Willy Ortiz	6.6	5.2	2.0	12.3%	15.5%	.301	68	148	-0.6	Julian Leyva
Mike Ellenbest	5.7	5.9	2.2	13.5%	12.9%	.302	62	161	-1.3	Dallas Trahern

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.