ZiPS 2021 Projections: Colorado Rockies

November 25, 2020

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies.

ZiPS Projections

20212020

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Batters

This is one of the worst teams in the majors — certainly the worst that seems blissfully unaware of that fact. The Rockies have two position players they can count on to be good, and one of them, Nolan Arenado, is no guarantee to start the 2021 season with Colorado. Even after a weak 60-game stretch in a year everyone would like to forget, if the Rockies do shop Arenado, they will get significant interest in the market. But would they actually close a deal? I’m not sure they will be realistic about the effect his contract and the unknown of an opt-out will have on trade offers. Regardless, ZiPS expects a bounceback season as he continues to make his mid-career Hall of Fame case.

If the Rockies do trade Arenado — and maybe even if they don’t — it would be hard for them to avoid trading Trevor Story if they actually do go for a full-on rebuild. Colorado has had poor fortune with some of its top offensive prospects, but Story has been one of the best kinds of surprises: a player who got far less press as a prospect than others in the organization (despite being a high draft pick) but kept hitting as he went up the ladder, got to the majors first and left the competition scrambling to find other positions. One of those players, Brendan Rodgers, is at risk of going the way of Ryan McMahon, in that he’s done everything he could in the minors to earn a chance in the majors only to find the team casually disinterested in distributing the necessary playing time.

The bright spots for Colorado end with Arenado and Story. There are few players on this roster who should be starting for a major league team; after more injuries and some ugly numbers when on the field in 2020, David Dahl may not actually be one of them. Josh Fuentes is currently listed as the first baseman on our depth charts, but I don’t expect him to end the offseason with that job. It’s possible that the Rockies stick with him at first, but his .306 batting average shouldn’t mask his .759 OPS at the position.

On the plus side, the Rockies got a good long look at promising youngster Matt Kemp, and Ian Desmond is coming off the best season of his Colorado career with an 86 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR.

Pitchers

Things are less bleak here, though likely nowhere near enough to compensate for the team’s all-encompassing malpractice in the lineup. German Marquez is just below the top tier of starting pitchers, but he’s survived Coors Field better than most. In a good season, he ought to make some noise at the back of Cy Young ballots; if I’d had an NL Cy Young vote in 2018, I’d have given him a spot on the ballot over Kyle Freeland. Signed through 2023 with an option for ’24, I think Marquez would actually fetch more on the market than either Arenado or Story, as weird as that might sound.

There were reasons to both be happy and worried about Freeland’s 2020. His line was closer to reasonable expectations than his dreadful 2019 season as — predictably — his home-run rate returned to relative normalcy. It’s not quite captured in a computer projection, but I like that he tinkered with his repertoire and focused on his curve and changeup quite a lot during the season. But on the negative side, losing a strikeout a game for two straight seasons is rarely an auspicious sign, so it keeps me in “hold” rather than “buy” territory.

As usual, the bullpen needs help. ZiPS likes Scott Oberg, Mychal Givens, and Carlos Estevez just fine, but there isn’t a great deal of upside, and the quality falls off after this trio. One exception is Daniel Bard, one of the majors’ best comeback stories and who hadn’t been both healthy and effective since 2011. He came back throwing 97 mph and struck out 27 batters in 24 1/3 innings for Colorado; his projection might in fact be low. In this case, though, I can’t really expect ZiPS to have a great feel for a player in this type of situation.

Matt Pierpont is an interesting minor league free agent as a pitcher ZiPS thought should be in Colorado’s bullpen for 2021, but like countless others before (Mike Tauchman, Tom Murphy, Roberto Ramos, etc), the Rockies never showed much interest in him despite his success in the minors. He didn’t make this list, but Alexander Guillen, signed by the Marlins, had a projection of similar quality.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Trevor Story	R	28	SS	650	587	96	160	35	6	33	86	57	176	27	7
Nolan Arenado	R	30	3B	613	547	86	158	32	3	32	99	56	89	2	2
Colton Welker	R	23	3B	518	472	56	133	28	2	15	67	36	104	3	1
Kevin Pillar	R	32	CF	586	552	79	156	36	3	17	74	23	90	13	5
Charlie Blackmon	L	34	RF	603	545	93	159	29	6	22	76	46	112	5	5
Ryan McMahon	L	26	2B	524	469	65	118	24	3	22	73	49	162	5	2
Yonathan Daza	R	27	CF	535	501	61	148	28	5	7	45	26	89	12	8
Raimel Tapia	L	27	LF	527	489	68	144	29	8	8	48	31	106	17	4
Dom Nunez	L	26	C	369	319	44	69	14	1	13	40	42	105	5	2
David Dahl	L	27	LF	429	394	56	109	21	6	18	58	27	119	5	3
Garrett Hampson	R	26	2B	513	465	64	121	18	7	11	39	39	127	25	6
Ryan Vilade	R	22	3B	608	543	71	138	24	7	10	49	48	129	15	9
Mike Gerber	L	28	CF	488	448	62	114	30	3	20	69	33	148	4	3
Brendan Rodgers	R	24	2B	389	359	46	92	20	2	12	46	22	88	5	2
Brian Serven	R	26	C	326	292	35	64	14	1	9	30	21	82	1	4
Chris Owings	R	29	2B	366	337	45	84	17	2	12	43	24	99	11	4
Eric Stamets	R	29	SS	371	335	39	74	15	2	8	33	25	102	10	1
Tony Wolters	L	29	C	333	294	33	70	13	2	2	28	29	70	0	1
Connor Joe	R	28	1B	442	383	54	93	22	3	12	49	49	102	1	3
Josh Fuentes	R	28	1B	499	470	60	126	27	4	13	60	18	130	4	2
Chris Rabago	R	28	C	306	273	29	59	12	2	4	22	27	79	10	5
Max George	R	25	C	345	298	39	62	12	2	8	27	32	91	17	7
Elias Diaz	R	30	C	340	315	33	84	16	0	6	38	22	57	1	0
Jose Briceno	R	28	C	277	260	28	59	9	1	10	32	13	70	4	1
Alan Trejo	R	25	SS	504	468	51	112	21	2	12	45	24	129	5	6
Kelby Tomlinson	R	31	SS	367	334	35	83	12	2	0	19	27	75	7	4
Daniel Murphy	L	36	1B	411	379	46	104	22	1	12	55	27	61	1	0
Austin Bernard	B	25	C	252	220	24	38	8	2	5	17	27	93	2	1
Sam Hilliard	L	27	RF	522	476	65	110	18	5	22	58	41	183	19	8
Matt Kemp	R	36	LF	377	346	43	93	14	0	17	64	28	95	1	0
Vince Fernandez	L	25	LF	424	376	49	77	16	3	16	46	42	179	5	6
Jimmy Herron	R	24	CF	374	332	39	77	13	3	8	35	32	77	10	9
Bret Boswell	L	26	2B	469	432	53	95	15	2	17	48	29	163	5	7
Drew Butera	R	37	C	215	192	23	39	10	1	3	20	17	56	0	0
Ian Desmond	R	35	LF	471	430	59	105	21	5	15	58	34	115	8	4
Matt McLaughlin	R	25	2B	400	358	38	83	15	1	2	24	32	101	8	10
Drew Weeks	R	28	LF	443	405	52	100	19	4	13	48	28	103	6	8
Luke Morgan	R	25	RF	352	318	35	69	15	4	3	22	29	106	10	4
Matt Hearn	L	25	CF	450	414	44	103	12	4	1	22	30	97	19	13
Casey Golden	R	26	LF	432	385	50	71	13	1	18	46	31	204	10	5
Taylor Snyder	R	26	SS	379	351	35	71	14	2	9	33	19	142	10	7
Manuel Melendez	L	24	CF	553	523	56	132	17	6	6	41	18	93	16	13
Sean Bouchard	R	25	LF	404	367	42	78	19	1	9	36	30	137	9	6

Batters – Advanced

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	ISO	BABIP	RC/27	Def	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Trevor Story	.273	.340	.521	110	.249	.336	6.8	6	4.0	Robby Thompson
Nolan Arenado	.289	.354	.534	117	.245	.296	7.1	10	3.8	Aramis Ramirez
Colton Welker	.282	.331	.445	91	.163	.334	5.6	3	1.3	Willy Aybar
Kevin Pillar	.283	.317	.451	88	.168	.312	5.5	0	1.1	Garry Maddox
Charlie Blackmon	.292	.352	.488	106	.196	.333	6.4	-5	1.1	Andy Van Slyke
Ryan McMahon	.252	.324	.456	92	.205	.337	5.4	-1	1.1	Mat Gamel
Yonathan Daza	.295	.331	.413	84	.118	.348	5.1	2	0.9	Skip Schumaker
Raimel Tapia	.294	.337	.436	91	.141	.363	5.8	2	0.8	David DeJesus
Dom Nunez	.216	.313	.389	74	.172	.279	4.2	4	0.7	Chad Kreuter
David Dahl	.277	.325	.497	101	.221	.354	6.0	-2	0.7	Brant Brown
Garrett Hampson	.260	.317	.400	77	.140	.336	4.9	1	0.7	Mike Fontenot
Ryan Vilade	.254	.313	.379	72	.125	.317	4.2	9	0.6	Denny Hocking
Mike Gerber	.254	.310	.469	90	.214	.336	5.2	-4	0.6	Dan Briggs
Brendan Rodgers	.256	.306	.423	79	.167	.309	4.7	3	0.6	Kelly Heath
Brian Serven	.219	.280	.366	59	.147	.274	3.3	9	0.4	Blake Barthol
Chris Owings	.249	.301	.418	77	.169	.319	4.6	2	0.4	Gookie Dawkins
Eric Stamets	.221	.283	.349	57	.128	.293	3.7	7	0.3	Erick Monzon
Tony Wolters	.238	.315	.316	59	.078	.306	3.5	5	0.1	Doug Newstrom
Connor Joe	.243	.336	.410	85	.167	.301	4.8	1	0.1	Chris Jelic
Josh Fuentes	.268	.298	.426	77	.157	.346	4.7	7	0.1	Jose Leon
Chris Rabago	.216	.290	.319	52	.103	.289	3.2	5	0.0	Paul Hoover
Max George	.208	.303	.342	61	.134	.271	3.6	0	0.0	Brian Moon
Elias Diaz	.267	.315	.375	71	.108	.310	4.4	-3	0.0	Raul Chavez
Jose Briceno	.227	.264	.385	59	.158	.272	3.6	2	-0.1	Jason Brown
Alan Trejo	.239	.281	.370	60	.130	.306	3.5	6	-0.1	Travis Hanson
Kelby Tomlinson	.249	.307	.296	52	.048	.320	3.2	6	-0.2	Chico Ruiz
Daniel Murphy	.274	.324	.433	86	.158	.301	5.2	-3	-0.3	Rich Aurilia
Austin Bernard	.173	.271	.295	41	.123	.270	2.6	4	-0.3	Jerrey Thurston
Sam Hilliard	.231	.294	.429	77	.197	.325	4.5	0	-0.4	Andy Tomberlin
Matt Kemp	.269	.321	.457	91	.188	.325	5.4	-8	-0.4	Walt Dropo
Vince Fernandez	.205	.291	.391	68	.186	.337	3.7	5	-0.5	Juan Williams
Jimmy Herron	.232	.306	.361	66	.130	.279	3.6	-1	-0.5	Lee Grimes
Bret Boswell	.220	.274	.382	61	.162	.310	3.4	4	-0.5	Paul Gonzalez
Drew Butera	.203	.268	.313	44	.109	.271	2.8	-1	-0.6	Tony Pena
Ian Desmond	.244	.302	.421	78	.177	.300	4.5	-5	-0.8	Dan Gladden
Matt McLaughlin	.232	.302	.296	51	.064	.318	2.8	-1	-1.3	Chris Gutierrez
Drew Weeks	.247	.302	.410	75	.163	.301	4.2	-8	-1.3	Fletcher Bates
Luke Morgan	.217	.286	.318	50	.101	.316	3.2	-1	-1.4	Scott Little
Matt Hearn	.249	.303	.304	52	.056	.323	3.1	-2	-1.4	Trench Davis
Casey Golden	.184	.265	.364	54	.179	.325	3.2	1	-1.4	Keith Kimsey
Taylor Snyder	.202	.249	.330	43	.128	.310	2.7	-1	-1.5	Jake Wald
Manuel Melendez	.252	.282	.342	55	.090	.297	3.3	-1	-1.6	Clay Timpner
Sean Bouchard	.213	.275	.343	53	.131	.312	3.2	-1	-1.6	Gary Crabtree

Pitchers – Standard

Player	T	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP
German Marquez	R	26	13	9	4.29	32	32	186.7	191	89	28	49	200	3.87
Kyle Freeland	L	28	9	8	5.07	29	29	149.0	169	84	22	58	113	4.87
Jon Gray	R	29	9	8	5.05	25	25	133.7	147	75	22	47	130	4.52
Antonio Senzatela	R	26	10	11	5.51	32	28	150.3	175	92	24	58	103	5.16
Antonio Santos	R	24	6	6	5.49	23	21	114.7	133	70	22	33	89	5.17
Jeff Hoffman	R	28	8	8	5.66	31	21	117.7	130	74	20	53	115	4.94
Scott Oberg	R	31	4	2	3.88	55	0	55.7	51	24	6	21	58	3.74
Wes Parsons	R	28	4	4	5.27	27	10	85.3	93	50	14	38	75	5.07
Brandon Gold	R	26	8	9	5.93	25	25	133.7	177	88	27	31	88	5.36
Ryan Rolison	L	23	6	6	5.68	19	19	90.3	100	57	17	39	76	5.44
Carlos Estevez	R	28	4	3	4.64	67	0	66.0	66	34	11	25	75	4.30
Peter Lambert	R	24	7	8	6.15	29	29	142.0	170	97	30	49	101	5.71
Mychal Givens	R	31	4	3	4.63	56	0	58.3	51	30	10	24	74	4.26
Heath Holder	R	28	5	5	5.54	35	7	79.7	85	49	14	39	77	5.19
Jairo Diaz	R	30	4	4	4.75	62	0	60.7	61	32	7	31	60	4.43
Matt Pierpont	R	30	3	3	4.57	35	0	45.3	46	23	6	20	42	4.57
Ashton Goudeau	R	28	4	4	5.71	21	11	69.3	81	44	13	23	53	5.26
Dereck Rodriguez	R	29	6	7	6.12	25	18	103.0	124	70	22	37	83	5.57
Tommy Doyle	R	25	5	4	4.85	44	0	42.7	43	23	6	20	41	4.70
Daniel Bard	R	36	6	5	4.83	41	0	41.0	36	22	5	26	47	4.74
Phillip Diehl	L	26	3	2	5.13	44	1	59.7	61	34	10	25	61	4.77
Matt Dennis	R	26	7	9	6.27	29	20	117.7	152	82	23	49	76	5.86
Ben Bowden	L	26	3	3	5.07	50	0	49.7	44	28	9	32	67	4.89
Chi Chi Gonzalez	R	29	5	7	6.42	23	19	102.3	117	73	21	54	79	6.03
Yency Almonte	R	27	4	3	5.32	67	0	69.3	73	41	11	38	64	5.21
Reid Humphreys	R	26	2	2	5.24	40	0	34.3	34	20	5	19	34	4.93
Zac Rosscup	L	33	0	0	5.24	24	0	22.3	20	13	4	16	29	5.19
Wade Davis	R	35	3	3	5.45	43	0	38.0	36	23	6	23	42	5.00
Chad Smith	R	26	3	3	5.53	37	0	40.7	40	25	4	32	39	5.12
Harrison Musgrave	L	29	2	3	6.35	29	7	56.7	62	40	12	31	51	5.88
Jose Mujica	R	25	2	3	6.75	10	8	41.3	55	31	9	17	19	6.47
Tyler Kinley	R	30	3	3	5.76	61	0	54.7	52	35	9	41	61	5.50
Tim Collins	L	31	3	3	5.94	46	0	36.3	36	24	6	28	38	5.63
James Pazos	L	30	2	3	5.92	49	0	48.7	54	32	9	27	42	5.71
AJ Ramos	R	34	2	2	6.31	29	0	25.7	27	18	5	18	27	5.83
Rayan Gonzalez	R	30	2	3	5.98	40	0	43.7	46	29	7	31	38	5.86
Joe Harvey	R	29	2	2	6.23	37	0	39.0	40	27	8	26	41	5.90
Jesus Tinoco	R	26	3	3	6.05	55	0	61.0	69	41	11	37	50	5.85
Brian Gonzalez	L	25	4	5	6.80	24	12	83.3	104	63	19	39	61	6.23
Justin Lawrence	R	26	2	3	6.37	46	0	41.0	43	29	5	37	35	5.98
Nelson Gonzalez	R	31	1	2	7.02	18	3	41.0	48	32	10	27	35	6.77
Tim Melville	R	31	6	9	7.03	23	18	96.0	115	75	25	50	79	6.64
Ryan Castellani	R	25	5	8	7.44	21	20	90.7	107	75	21	67	69	7.08

Pitchers – Advanced

Player	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BB%	K%	BABIP	ERA+	ERA-	WAR	No. 1 Comp
German Marquez	9.6	2.4	1.4	6.2%	25.2%	.319	120	83	3.5	Bob Rush
Kyle Freeland	6.8	3.5	1.3	8.7%	16.9%	.313	101	99	1.8	Johnny Schmitz
Jon Gray	8.8	3.2	1.5	8.0%	22.0%	.323	102	98	1.7	Mike Krukow
Antonio Senzatela	6.2	3.5	1.4	8.6%	15.2%	.310	93	107	1.3	John Denny
Antonio Santos	7.0	2.6	1.7	6.5%	17.5%	.311	94	107	0.9	Rick Wise
Jeff Hoffman	8.8	4.1	1.5	9.9%	21.5%	.324	91	110	0.8	Bill Swift
Scott Oberg	9.4	3.4	1.0	8.9%	24.5%	.300	132	75	0.8	Greg Minton
Wes Parsons	7.9	4.0	1.5	9.8%	19.4%	.311	97	103	0.8	Russ Bauers
Brandon Gold	5.9	2.1	1.8	5.1%	14.5%	.332	87	115	0.7	Lary Sorensen
Ryan Rolison	7.6	3.9	1.7	9.5%	18.6%	.306	91	110	0.7	Mike Miller
Carlos Estevez	10.2	3.4	1.5	8.7%	26.1%	.316	111	90	0.5	Jerry Dipoto
Peter Lambert	6.4	3.1	1.9	7.6%	15.7%	.308	84	120	0.5	John Mitchell
Mychal Givens	11.4	3.7	1.5	9.6%	29.6%	.295	111	90	0.5	Gregg Olson
Heath Holder	8.7	4.4	1.6	10.8%	21.3%	.313	93	108	0.4	Tony Fiore
Jairo Diaz	8.9	4.6	1.0	11.3%	21.9%	.314	108	92	0.4	Doug Sisk
Matt Pierpont	8.3	4.0	1.2	9.9%	20.8%	.305	113	89	0.3	Ed Farmer
Ashton Goudeau	6.9	3.0	1.7	7.4%	17.0%	.312	90	111	0.3	Bill Swaggerty
Dereck Rodriguez	7.3	3.2	1.9	7.9%	17.8%	.319	84	119	0.3	Ownie Carroll
Tommy Doyle	8.6	4.2	1.3	10.5%	21.5%	.306	106	94	0.2	Newt Kimball
Daniel Bard	10.3	5.7	1.1	13.9%	25.1%	.298	106	94	0.2	Ryne Duren
Phillip Diehl	9.2	3.8	1.5	9.4%	23.0%	.309	100	100	0.2	Juan Agosto
Matt Dennis	5.8	3.7	1.8	8.9%	13.8%	.325	82	122	0.2	Bill Swift
Ben Bowden	12.1	5.8	1.6	14.3%	29.9%	.307	101	99	0.2	Darren Oliver
Chi Chi Gonzalez	6.9	4.7	1.8	11.4%	16.6%	.304	80	125	0.1	Don Schwall
Yency Almonte	8.3	4.9	1.4	11.9%	20.1%	.308	97	104	0.1	Bill Kelso
Reid Humphreys	8.9	5.0	1.3	12.2%	21.8%	.302	98	102	0.1	Bill Zuber
Zac Rosscup	11.7	6.4	1.6	15.5%	28.2%	.302	98	102	0.0	Marshall Bridges
Wade Davis	9.9	5.4	1.4	13.3%	24.3%	.300	94	106	0.0	Don Aase
Chad Smith	8.6	7.1	0.9	16.5%	20.1%	.310	93	108	0.0	Newt Kimball
Harrison Musgrave	8.1	4.9	1.9	11.9%	19.5%	.303	81	124	-0.1	Dean Stone
Jose Mujica	4.1	3.7	2.0	8.8%	9.8%	.313	76	131	-0.1	Mike Nagy
Tyler Kinley	10.0	6.8	1.5	16.0%	23.8%	.303	89	112	-0.1	Ted Abernathy
Tim Collins	9.4	6.9	1.5	16.3%	22.1%	.303	86	116	-0.1	Arnold Earley
James Pazos	7.8	5.0	1.7	11.9%	18.6%	.310	87	115	-0.2	Jim Brewer
AJ Ramos	9.5	6.3	1.8	14.9%	22.3%	.314	81	123	-0.2	Marshall Bridges
Rayan Gonzalez	7.8	6.4	1.4	14.9%	18.3%	.302	86	116	-0.2	Ted Abernathy
Joe Harvey	9.5	6.0	1.8	14.3%	22.5%	.305	83	121	-0.2	Newt Kimball
Jesus Tinoco	7.4	5.5	1.6	12.9%	17.4%	.312	85	118	-0.3	Ron Willis
Brian Gonzalez	6.6	4.2	2.1	10.0%	15.6%	.317	76	132	-0.3	Mark Brandenburg
Justin Lawrence	7.7	8.1	1.1	18.2%	17.2%	.309	81	124	-0.3	Ken Wright
Nelson Gonzalez	7.7	5.9	2.2	13.7%	17.8%	.309	73	137	-0.3	Jerry Johnson
Tim Melville	7.4	4.7	2.3	11.1%	17.5%	.308	73	137	-0.4	Dick Fowler
Ryan Castellani	6.8	6.7	2.1	15.1%	15.5%	.305	69	145	-0.7	Rod Boxberger

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.

Let’s Rethink the Playoffs

Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.