ZiPS 2021 Projections: Boston Red Sox

December 17, 2020

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox.

ZiPS Projections

20212020

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Batters

The Red Sox took a great deal of heat for the zeal with which they traded Mookie Betts last offseason, practically advertising to the world their intent to deal him as if it were a point of pride. When was the last time you saw a restaurant send out a press release announcing that their food was going to get worse? However you feel about the wisdom of the trade, it was a significant short-term downgrade for a team that had nearly fallen off the proverbial cliff in 2019. As a bizarre silver lining, Boston struggled so much in 2020 that, even in a 16-team playoff, it seems unlikely that they would have made the playoffs if they had retained Betts. He wasn’t five wins better than his replacements, after all.

While Boston finished the season in last place in the AL East, even looking up at the Orioles, the offense didn’t really have a lot to do with that bleak result. Ranking 12th in baseball in wRC+ and 11th in overall runs scored doesn’t exactly reek of awesomeness, but it’s at least respectable, something .400 teams aren’t particularly known for. Nor was there a dramatic drop-off in Boston’s very ordinary defense. Some things did go right, but certainly not everything:

J.D. Martinez and Michael Chavis were dreadful.
Rafael Devers took a step back from his 2019 season.
Andrew Benintendi‘s ribcage strain could arguably be called his seasonal highlight.

There’s a lot of work to do, and it’s unclear if Boston has the ability to do it quickly. Moving a year of Betts wasn’t enough to restock the farm system single-trade-edly, and there isn’t a lot of immediate help for the lineup in the minors. Alex Verdugo‘s fine, but even if we assumed that he was a one-for-one replacement for Mookie — he’s not, of course — Boston faces the prospect of replacing Jackie Bradley Jr., and perhaps both Martinez and Benintendi on top of that. ZiPS is still projecting a bounce for both players, but that’s far from a guarantee, and the projected comebacks aren’t star-level.

Hunter Renfroe is unlikely to be the savior in this regard. Yes, I’ve seen the pretty home run overlays that show a bunch of Renfroe outs becoming homers in Fenway, but that kind of exercise is highly misleading. You can do that and get similar results for most right-handed sluggers due to the park dimensions, but if it actually worked that way in practice, you’d see significant batter-friendly park statistics for righties. Fact is, Fenway hasn’t been a huge haven for right-handed hitters for something like 35 years now.

ZiPS remains optimistic about Devers despite a 2020 season that can fairly be classified as a disappointment. His contact numbers regressed, but they don’t reflect a broken approach at the plate, and it’s important to remember he was just 23 last season. If you wiped out his statistical record prior to 2020 and pretended that this was his rookie season, you’d likely be at least somewhat satisfied with his moderately successful debut. That he was a legitimate superstar in 2019 shouldn’t make your feelings worse!

Has Xander Bogaerts become the most underrated shortstop in baseball? Short season or not, we have another datapoint suggesting that his 2018 offensive improvement represents a new baseline rather than a blip, but with the Red Sox struggling, that’s gotten lost in a league with an unreal number of extremely talented young shortstops. Bogaerts is slowly building his Hall of Fame case and still projects as a .277/.343/.474 hitter in 2026. 2,500 hits and over 350 homers, as ZiPS is currently projecting, ought to be enough to get him to Cooperstown.

First base looks like a serious weakness, but I fully expect Mitch Moreland to show up in the spring, and for the Red Sox to assume that someone in the front office must have signed him for a year at $4 million or something.

Pitchers

ZiPS is a bit grumpier than Steamer when it comes to Boston’s pitching by just under two wins, enough to drop Boston’s rotation into the bottom-third of baseball. On the other hand, considering the Red Sox starting five finished 30th out of 30 in WAR in 2020, that could be considered a triumph.

Well, maybe not, but the starting pitching will struggle to, well, struggle as much as they did in 2019. The team won’t have Chris Sale for the entire season, but it seems likely that they’ll get his services back sometimes in the summer, a definite improvement over the zero innings they got from him in 2020. As difficult as Sale’s loss was, don’t forget that Boston also lost Eduardo Rodriguez, who had a solid case for being the team’s most valuable pitcher in 2019. Based on WAR, the Red Sox lost seven wins before the season even started due to those two players’ injuries, and even a team trying in good faith to win would have had tremendous difficulty replacing them with no advanced notice.

One big thing separating Steamer from ZiPS is the very different projections each has for Nathan Eovaldi. I’m personally closer to Steamer than ZiPS in this fight; Eovaldi got his walks back under control, and I don’t think ZiPS is compensating enough for his injury interruptions in 2019 as a mitigating factor. But hey, if I agreed with every projection, I could just write down my personal feelings rather than run algorithms, couldn’t I?

Where Steamer and ZiPS do broadly agree is the bullpen, with the WAR differences coming down to the fact that ZiPS uses leverage index in its projections. Both systems see a solid Matt Barnes, three more solid, middle-of-the-road relievers in Ryan Brasier, Josh Taylor, and Darwinzon Hernandez, and a whole lot more question marks.

What the Red Sox do really depends on where their organizational priorities actually land this winter. The team hasn’t really telegraphed how steep this retooling process will be. The Red Sox need to add quite a lot this offseason, but they’ve given little indication that they’re any more willing to bust through the luxury tax threshold that they were last year, even after resetting the penalty in 2020. As it stands now, our estimate is that, including player benefits, they’re already at $177 million for 2021. Relief pitching is likely to be relatively inexpensive, so I can see some additions there, but starting pitching won’t be, and the team needs more outfield depth, too.

Batters – Standard

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Xander Bogaerts	R	28	SS	639	572	95	165	38	2	27	94	60	116	13	1
Rafael Devers	L	24	3B	675	624	102	179	44	3	32	112	45	146	5	4
Christian Vazquez	R	30	C	467	432	54	115	22	1	15	51	30	90	7	4
Alex Verdugo	L	25	RF	534	484	69	141	32	2	14	51	43	87	8	2
J.D. Martinez	R	33	DH	581	515	75	136	30	2	27	86	58	143	3	0
Andrew Benintendi	L	26	LF	583	501	73	127	31	4	14	64	69	129	13	5
Jackie Bradley Jr.	L	31	CF	525	464	66	112	26	2	17	57	48	132	10	4
Hunter Renfroe	R	29	RF	462	420	56	97	25	1	26	81	34	130	5	0
Bobby Dalbec	R	26	1B	502	442	59	97	19	1	26	63	48	197	3	4
Kevin Plawecki	R	30	C	311	279	30	74	17	2	6	41	23	54	1	1
Cesar Puello	R	30	CF	337	293	37	74	13	1	7	37	26	84	5	2
Christian Arroyo	R	26	3B	296	272	34	71	16	1	10	42	19	62	2	1
Yairo Munoz	R	26	SS	410	387	47	107	26	2	11	48	18	92	12	4
Jeter Downs	R	22	SS	575	517	68	118	32	4	19	72	47	147	22	11
Michael Chavis	R	25	2B	465	427	54	100	21	3	20	64	30	145	5	0
Jarren Duran	L	24	CF	567	527	59	141	22	8	5	39	31	125	33	11
Michael Gettys	R	25	CF	533	494	63	105	25	6	18	72	31	204	14	7
Ryder Jones	L	27	3B	469	430	50	101	24	3	13	56	30	123	3	1
Deivy Grullon	R	25	C	438	394	46	93	21	0	15	60	39	152	1	0
Jhonny Pereda	R	25	C	455	407	43	95	16	1	5	35	44	84	2	2
Joey Meneses	R	29	1B	480	443	52	115	22	1	12	53	33	114	0	0
John Andreoli	R	31	LF	471	409	51	86	20	3	9	41	55	143	12	4
Chad De La Guerra	L	28	SS	403	369	44	83	18	2	12	42	28	120	4	2
Rusney Castillo	R	33	RF	471	448	50	121	25	1	9	44	17	72	7	6
Hudson Potts	R	22	3B	537	496	58	112	27	2	16	65	33	167	4	1
Triston Casas	L	21	1B	540	488	62	107	25	4	22	70	43	170	4	3
Dustin Pedroia	R	37	2B	356	326	37	82	13	0	4	31	27	46	1	2
Roldani Baldwin	R	25	C	241	228	23	50	13	0	6	26	9	62	1	0
Tommy Joseph ??	R	29	1B	430	397	45	96	24	0	17	63	24	102	0	0
Jett Bandy	R	31	C	302	276	29	56	13	0	10	31	15	79	1	1
Connor Wong	R	25	C	464	428	49	93	21	3	14	53	28	169	8	4
C.J. Chatham	R	26	SS	513	486	45	123	23	2	5	37	18	115	6	3
Josh Ockimey	L	25	1B	495	427	57	88	21	2	18	54	61	180	0	2
Jonathan Arauz	B	22	SS	487	448	48	101	22	3	10	48	35	111	5	5
Juan Centeno	L	31	C	325	298	29	72	14	1	3	25	18	56	2	0
Johan Mieses	R	25	RF	497	454	52	91	19	2	18	54	33	158	3	1
Marcus Wilson	R	24	CF	493	445	53	92	23	2	15	51	40	184	11	6
Garrett Benge	L	25	3B	385	348	35	69	14	1	5	26	34	134	5	5
Jeisson Rosario	L	21	CF	561	484	61	107	19	6	5	37	68	151	11	8
Ryan Fitzgerald	L	27	SS	492	452	45	98	17	4	5	37	33	141	6	7
Brett Netzer	L	25	2B	520	478	45	100	22	2	6	37	32	158	3	6
Marco Hernandez	L	28	2B	368	350	38	85	18	1	4	25	12	84	4	4
Pedro Castellanos	R	23	1B	531	501	54	123	24	2	10	51	17	96	9	9

Batters – Advanced

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	ISO	BABIP	RC/27	Def	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Xander Bogaerts	.288	.357	.503	125	.215	.322	7.0	-5	4.1	Alan Trammell
Rafael Devers	.287	.338	.521	123	.234	.330	6.6	-7	3.3	Ryan Zimmerman
Christian Vazquez	.266	.315	.426	94	.160	.306	4.9	7	2.3	Dan Wilson
Alex Verdugo	.291	.350	.452	111	.161	.332	6.1	3	2.2	Ryan Sweeney
J.D. Martinez	.264	.339	.487	116	.223	.316	6.1	0	1.9	Geronimo Berroa ???
Andrew Benintendi	.253	.347	.415	101	.162	.316	5.3	2	1.6	Stu Pederson
Jackie Bradley Jr.	.241	.323	.416	94	.175	.302	4.8	2	1.5	Brian Lesher
Hunter Renfroe	.231	.292	.481	100	.250	.269	5.1	4	1.3	Darryl Motley
Bobby Dalbec	.219	.307	.443	96	.224	.324	4.6	6	1.0	Nate Rolison
Kevin Plawecki	.265	.334	.405	95	.140	.311	4.9	-1	1.0	Charlie Berry
Cesar Puello	.253	.338	.375	90	.123	.332	4.6	2	1.0	Armando Rios
Christian Arroyo	.261	.315	.438	97	.176	.305	5.0	1	1.0	Jose Vidro
Yairo Munoz	.276	.312	.439	96	.163	.338	5.2	-5	0.9	Fred Manrique
Jeter Downs	.228	.298	.416	87	.188	.282	4.3	-6	0.7	Sean Rodriguez
Michael Chavis	.234	.292	.438	90	.204	.305	4.6	-5	0.5	Erick Almonte
Jarren Duran	.268	.313	.368	80	.101	.343	4.5	-2	0.5	Luis Polonia
Michael Gettys	.213	.263	.397	72	.184	.320	3.6	7	0.5	Fred Lewis
Ryder Jones	.235	.292	.395	80	.160	.299	4.1	1	0.4	Mike Bell
Deivy Grullon	.236	.306	.404	86	.168	.344	4.4	-9	0.3	Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Jhonny Pereda	.233	.309	.314	67	.081	.283	3.4	2	0.3	Tom Wieghaus
Joey Meneses	.260	.311	.395	86	.135	.325	4.5	3	0.2	Alejandro Freire
John Andreoli	.210	.306	.340	72	.130	.300	3.7	7	0.2	Adam Shabala
Chad De La Guerra	.225	.284	.382	74	.157	.300	3.8	-2	0.1	Mike Neal
Rusney Castillo	.270	.301	.391	82	.121	.305	4.2	3	0.0	Don Kolloway
Hudson Potts	.226	.281	.385	74	.159	.307	3.8	-1	0.0	Matthew Brown
Triston Casas	.219	.287	.422	85	.203	.287	4.1	2	0.0	Kevin Burns
Dustin Pedroia	.252	.310	.328	70	.077	.283	3.6	0	-0.2	Ossie Bluege
Roldani Baldwin	.219	.253	.355	59	.136	.275	3.2	1	-0.2	Jeff Winchester
Tommy Joseph	.242	.291	.431	88	.189	.284	4.5	-2	-0.2	Nate Gold
Jett Bandy	.203	.266	.359	64	.156	.246	3.2	-1	-0.2	Chad Moeller
Connor Wong	.217	.272	.379	70	.161	.322	3.6	-5	-0.3	Troy Afenir
C.J. Chatham	.253	.281	.340	64	.086	.322	3.5	0	-0.4	Tom Veryzer
Josh Ockimey	.206	.307	.391	84	.185	.306	4.0	-2	-0.4	Jeff Bailey
Jonathan Arauz	.225	.283	.355	68	.129	.278	3.4	-3	-0.4	Todd Carey
Juan Centeno	.242	.292	.326	64	.084	.289	3.5	-6	-0.6	Randy Gomez
Johan Mieses	.200	.264	.370	66	.170	.263	3.3	4	-0.7	Kris Harvey
Marcus Wilson	.207	.276	.369	69	.162	.313	3.4	-6	-0.9	Corey Brown
Garrett Benge	.198	.271	.287	49	.089	.306	2.5	2	-1.1	Chase Voshell
Jeisson Rosario	.221	.320	.316	70	.095	.311	3.4	-10	-1.1	Gregor Blanco
Ryan Fitzgerald	.217	.272	.305	53	.088	.304	2.7	-1	-1.2	Scott Carnes
Brett Netzer	.209	.263	.301	50	.092	.299	2.5	5	-1.2	Jason Wood
Marco Hernandez	.243	.272	.334	60	.091	.309	3.1	-7	-1.4	Steve Sisco
Pedro Castellanos	.246	.279	.361	68	.116	.286	3.4	-5	-2.0	Mike Collins

Pitchers – Standard

Player	T	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP
Chris Sale	L	32	9	5	3.35	20	20	121.0	103	45	14	28	147	3.20
Eduardo Rodriguez	L	28	11	8	4.23	29	28	164.0	159	77	21	60	167	4.02
Martin Perez	L	30	8	8	5.07	27	25	135.0	149	76	19	55	104	4.78
Nathan Eovaldi	R	31	5	4	4.70	21	17	90.0	93	47	15	26	90	4.31
Connor Seabold	R	25	5	4	4.85	19	19	94.7	99	51	16	27	91	4.47
Ryan Weber	R	30	6	5	4.86	35	17	111.0	125	60	17	30	73	4.83
Andrew Cashner	R	34	8	7	5.05	28	20	117.7	123	66	17	48	85	4.94
Bryan Mata	R	22	9	8	4.97	23	23	105.0	104	58	12	62	90	4.89
Collin McHugh	R	34	4	3	4.35	32	9	72.3	69	35	10	27	75	4.19
Garrett Whitlock	R	25	4	4	4.89	18	18	84.7	92	46	10	37	65	4.67
Matt Hall	L	27	5	5	4.93	31	12	95.0	96	52	12	49	95	4.53
Joel Payamps	R	27	6	6	4.86	20	15	87.0	95	47	14	25	75	4.58
Nick Pivetta	R	28	7	7	5.16	28	19	113.3	118	65	18	45	104	4.71
Ryan Brasier	R	33	3	2	3.92	60	1	57.3	53	25	7	18	57	3.83
Zack Godley	R	31	7	7	5.16	26	18	106.3	112	61	16	48	105	4.68
Matt Barnes	R	31	5	3	3.99	63	0	58.7	47	26	6	34	78	3.69
Chris Mazza	R	31	4	4	5.06	23	15	90.7	99	51	13	35	69	4.88
Kutter Crawford	R	25	7	8	5.30	23	23	105.3	110	62	15	60	93	5.17
Jeffrey Springs	L	28	4	3	4.50	39	5	70.0	67	35	10	33	82	4.24
Eduard Bazardo	R	25	5	4	4.58	33	4	72.7	76	37	12	21	65	4.61
Tanner Houck	R	25	7	8	5.31	26	17	95.0	100	56	15	46	81	5.17
Mike Kickham	L	32	5	4	5.06	24	12	74.7	79	42	13	27	65	4.95
Stephen Gonsalves	L	26	8	8	5.43	24	21	104.3	107	63	15	60	98	5.04
Josh Taylor	L	28	4	3	4.20	57	0	55.7	50	26	7	26	63	4.11
Raynel Espinal	R	29	5	5	4.81	24	3	67.3	67	36	12	24	68	4.68
Dylan Covey	R	29	5	6	5.40	27	18	96.7	110	58	13	35	71	4.64
Marcus Walden	R	32	4	4	4.67	45	3	61.7	62	32	7	28	54	4.41
Brian Johnson	L	30	3	3	5.33	27	13	74.3	81	44	13	35	66	5.17
Darwinzon Hernandez	L	24	3	3	4.35	57	0	49.7	39	24	6	35	65	4.49
Phillips Valdez	R	29	4	4	5.30	39	11	91.7	103	54	14	43	77	5.09
Kevin McCarthy	R	29	3	2	4.45	52	0	58.7	64	29	6	21	38	4.39
Austin Brice	R	29	3	2	4.61	46	1	52.7	49	27	8	22	56	4.57
Andrew Triggs	R	32	3	3	5.36	11	9	43.7	46	26	8	17	37	5.24
Kyle Hart	L	28	7	9	5.70	21	19	102.7	118	65	17	47	80	5.29
R.J. Alvarez	R	30	4	4	4.60	47	0	47.0	42	24	5	30	51	4.44
Colten Brewer	R	28	4	4	4.93	52	3	65.7	65	36	9	33	62	4.72
Steven Wright	R	36	2	2	5.66	13	7	47.7	52	30	9	22	35	5.74
Seth Blair	R	32	2	2	5.06	11	1	21.3	21	12	3	13	21	5.01
Mike Shawaryn	R	26	4	5	5.99	25	19	100.7	113	67	20	48	85	5.68
Robinson Leyer	R	28	2	3	5.51	37	1	47.3	46	29	7	36	50	5.46
Durbin Feltman	R	24	3	3	5.33	45	0	50.7	49	30	6	35	48	5.07
Caleb Simpson	R	29	3	4	5.54	35	0	37.3	34	23	5	28	40	5.27
Kaleb Ort	R	29	3	3	5.68	33	0	44.3	39	28	6	38	53	5.32
Adam Lau	R	26	3	4	5.81	40	1	57.3	60	37	10	38	56	5.69

Pitchers – Standard

Player	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BB%	K%	BABIP	ERA+	ERA-	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Chris Sale	10.9	2.1	1.0	5.6%	29.6%	.299	139	72	3.1	John Smiley
Eduardo Rodriguez	9.2	3.3	1.2	8.5%	23.7%	.305	110	91	2.8	Mark Mulder
Martin Perez	6.9	3.7	1.3	9.1%	17.2%	.309	91	109	1.1	Woodie Fryman
Nathan Eovaldi	9.0	2.6	1.5	6.7%	23.3%	.310	99	101	1.0	Pat Ahearne
Connor Seabold	8.7	2.6	1.5	6.6%	22.3%	.309	96	105	1.0	Mark Knudson
Ryan Weber	5.9	2.4	1.4	6.2%	15.1%	.301	95	105	1.0	Willis Hudlin
Andrew Cashner	6.5	3.7	1.3	9.2%	16.4%	.290	92	109	1.0	Spec Shea
Bryan Mata	7.7	5.3	1.0	12.9%	18.8%	.298	93	107	1.0	Stan Fansler
Collin McHugh	9.3	3.4	1.2	8.7%	24.0%	.301	106	94	0.9	Mike Fyhrie ???
Garrett Whitlock	6.9	3.9	1.1	9.7%	17.0%	.309	95	105	0.9	Steve Arlin
Matt Hall	9.0	4.6	1.1	11.4%	22.1%	.313	94	106	0.8	Jake Chapman
Joel Payamps	7.8	2.6	1.4	6.6%	19.7%	.310	95	105	0.8	Ray Bare
Nick Pivetta	8.3	3.6	1.4	9.0%	20.8%	.305	90	111	0.7	Brian Kingman
Ryan Brasier	8.9	2.8	1.1	7.5%	23.7%	.293	118	85	0.7	Todd Williams
Zack Godley	8.9	4.1	1.4	10.0%	22.0%	.317	90	111	0.7	Julian Tavarez
Matt Barnes	12.0	5.2	0.9	13.3%	30.5%	.301	116	86	0.7	Cory Bailey
Chris Mazza	6.8	3.5	1.3	8.6%	17.0%	.305	92	109	0.7	Jim Bagby
Kutter Crawford	7.9	5.1	1.3	12.4%	19.2%	.306	88	114	0.7	Randy Hennis
Jeffrey Springs	10.5	4.2	1.3	10.7%	26.5%	.315	103	97	0.6	Randy Choate
Eduard Bazardo	8.1	2.6	1.5	6.7%	20.6%	.302	101	99	0.6	John Doherty
Tanner Houck	7.7	4.4	1.4	10.7%	18.8%	.301	87	114	0.5	Tim Byron
Mike Kickham	7.8	3.3	1.6	8.2%	19.8%	.300	92	109	0.5	Bob Chipman
Stephen Gonsalves	8.5	5.2	1.3	12.6%	20.5%	.307	85	117	0.5	John Courtwright
Josh Taylor	10.2	4.2	1.1	10.7%	26.0%	.301	110	91	0.4	Scott Wiegandt
Raynel Espinal	9.1	3.2	1.6	8.2%	23.4%	.299	96	104	0.4	Keith Glauber
Dylan Covey	6.6	3.3	1.2	8.1%	16.5%	.314	86	116	0.4	Ownie Carroll
Marcus Walden	7.9	4.1	1.0	10.2%	19.7%	.302	99	101	0.4	Jim Todd
Brian Johnson	8.0	4.2	1.6	10.4%	19.6%	.309	87	115	0.3	Mike Kekich
Darwinzon Hernandez	11.8	6.3	1.1	15.6%	29.0%	.289	107	94	0.3	Luke Walker
Phillips Valdez	7.6	4.2	1.4	10.2%	18.3%	.318	87	114	0.3	Ed Klieman
Kevin McCarthy	5.8	3.2	0.9	8.1%	14.7%	.304	104	96	0.3	Frank Linzy
Austin Brice	9.6	3.8	1.4	9.5%	24.2%	.293	100	100	0.2	Mike Koplove
Andrew Triggs	7.6	3.5	1.6	8.8%	19.1%	.295	87	116	0.2	Steve Sparks
Kyle Hart	7.0	4.1	1.5	10.0%	17.0%	.315	81	123	0.2	Vaughn Eshelman
R.J. Alvarez	9.8	5.7	1.0	14.2%	24.1%	.298	101	99	0.2	Ed Farmer
Colten Brewer	8.5	4.5	1.2	11.3%	21.2%	.301	94	106	0.2	Jim Duffalo
Steven Wright	6.6	4.2	1.7	10.2%	16.2%	.293	82	122	0.1	Tommy Thomas
Seth Blair	8.9	5.5	1.3	13.3%	21.4%	.300	92	109	0.1	Jerry Johnson
Mike Shawaryn	7.6	4.3	1.8	10.4%	18.4%	.307	77	129	-0.1	Kevin Hodges ???
Robinson Leyer	9.5	6.8	1.3	16.1%	22.3%	.305	84	119	-0.2	Jim Dickson
Durbin Feltman	8.5	6.2	1.1	14.9%	20.4%	.301	87	115	-0.2	Jim Winn
Caleb Simpson	9.6	6.8	1.2	16.0%	22.9%	.293	84	120	-0.2	Maximo Nunez
Kaleb Ort	10.8	7.7	1.2	18.1%	25.2%	.300	82	123	-0.3	Archie Corbin
Adam Lau	8.8	6.0	1.6	14.1%	20.7%	.309	80	125	-0.4	Sean Green

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.

Milwaukee’s Andy Haines Talks Hitting

Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.