Top 46 Prospects: Cleveland Baseball Team
For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of Future Value’s merits and drawbacks, read Future Value.
Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nolan Jones | 22.7 | AA | LF | 2021 | 50 |
2 | Triston McKenzie | 23.4 | MLB | SP | 2020 | 50 |
3 | George Valera | 20.1 | A | RF | 2022 | 50 |
4 | Brayan Rocchio | 20.0 | A- | SS | 2022 | 50 |
5 | Tyler Freeman | 21.6 | A+ | 2B | 2022 | 50 |
6 | Daniel Espino | 20.0 | A- | SP | 2022 | 50 |
7 | Bo Naylor | 20.9 | A | C | 2023 | 50 |
8 | Aaron Bracho | 19.7 | A- | 2B | 2024 | 45+ |
9 | Gabriel Arias | 20.9 | A+ | SS | 2021 | 45+ |
10 | Lenny Torres | 20.2 | R | SP | 2023 | 45 |
11 | Angel Martinez | 19.0 | R | SS | 2023 | 45 |
12 | Ethan Hankins | 20.6 | A | SP | 2023 | 45 |
13 | Sam Hentges | 24.5 | AA | SIRP | 2021 | 45 |
14 | Owen Miller | 24.1 | AA | SS | 2021 | 45 |
15 | Carlos Vargas | 21.2 | A- | SIRP | 2023 | 45 |
16 | Daniel Johnson Jr. | 25.5 | MLB | RF | 2021 | 45 |
17 | Joey Cantillo | 21.0 | A+ | SP | 2022 | 45 |
18 | Emmanuel Clase | 22.8 | MLB | SIRP | 2020 | 40+ |
19 | Carson Tucker | 18.9 | R | SS | 2025 | 40+ |
20 | Tanner Burns | 22.0 | R | SP | 2024 | 40+ |
21 | Logan Allen | 22.3 | R | SP | 2024 | 40+ |
22 | Petey Halpin | 18.6 | R | CF | 2025 | 40+ |
23 | Junior Sanquintin | 19.0 | R | SS | 2023 | 40+ |
24 | Nick Mikolajchak | 23.1 | A- | SIRP | 2023 | 40+ |
25 | Cody Morris | 24.2 | A+ | MIRP | 2022 | 40+ |
26 | Gabriel Rodriguez | 18.9 | R | 3B | 2023 | 40+ |
27 | Hunter Gaddis | 22.7 | A- | MIRP | 2023 | 40 |
28 | Bryan Lavastida | 22.1 | A | C | 2022 | 40 |
29 | Richard Palacios | 23.6 | A | 2B | 2022 | 40 |
30 | Jose Tena | 19.8 | R | SS | 2024 | 40 |
31 | Trevor Stephan | 25.1 | AA | SIRP | 2021 | 40 |
32 | Jose Fermin | 21.8 | A | SS | 2023 | 40 |
33 | Milan Tolentino | 19.1 | R | SS | 2025 | 40 |
34 | Raymond Burgos | 22.1 | A | MIRP | 2021 | 40 |
35 | Bobby Bradley | 24.6 | MLB | DH | 2019 | 40 |
36 | Alexfri Planez | 19.4 | R | RF | 2024 | 40 |
37 | Yordys Valdes | 19.4 | R | SS | 2024 | 35+ |
38 | Cameron Hill | 26.6 | MLB | SIRP | 2021 | 35+ |
39 | Eli Morgan | 24.6 | AAA | MIRP | 2021 | 35+ |
40 | Robert Broom | 24.3 | AA | SIRP | 2021 | 35+ |
41 | Nick Sandlin | 24.0 | AAA | SIRP | 2020 | 35+ |
42 | Scott Moss | 26.2 | AAA | MIRP | 2020 | 35+ |
43 | Jean Carlos Mejia | 24.4 | A+ | SP | 2020 | 35+ |
44 | Jhonkensy Noel | 19.5 | R | 1B | 2022 | 35+ |
45 | Adam Scott | 25.2 | AA | SIRP | 2022 | 35+ |
46 | Steven Kwan | 23.3 | A+ | CF | 2022 | 35+ |
- All
- C
- 1B
- 2B
- SS
- 3B
- OF
- LF
- CF
- RF
- LHP
- RHP
50 FV Prospects
Age | 22.7 | Height | 6? 4? | Weight | 220 | Bat / Thr | L / R | FV | 50 |
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Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
30/40 | 70/70 | 50/65 | 30/30 | 40/45 | 70 |
A high school shortstop who has almost exclusively been a third baseman in pro ball, Jones played first base and both outfield corners during Fall instructs. Defensive versatility is valuable on its own, and this was also a logical trial given Cleveland’s situation at the corner spots. Carlos Santana has departed, the club’s outfield was below replacement level in 2020, and one of the better hitters on the planet is already the club’s third sacker. But regardless of the circumstance, there is a contingent of scouts who think Jones has already outgrown third base. He’s stretched two additional (listed) inches since high school and now stands in at a long-legged 6-foot-4. Though his ridiculous arm enables him to make some tough plays, Jones’ size has an impact on his defensive footwork and mobility.
But ultimately, it doesn’t really matter where Jones plays, because he has a special offensive skillset that will likely profile anywhere. Not only does he have big raw power, but Jones has perhaps the best strike zone discipline in the entire minor leagues. He ran a 20% walk rate across a 100-game sample as a 21-year-old at Hi-A, then posted a 14.7% rate at Double-A (he had turned 22 by then) to wrap up 2019. Jones has the highest walk rate (17.9%) the last two years among minor leaguers who have reached at least Double-A, and there are only five other hitters his age or younger who are within three percentage points of him. That patience combined with high-end raw power (he has the fourth-highest max exit velo among prospects on The Board) that Jones hasn’t yet totally tapped into should enable him to be a cleanup-hitting force.
There’s some platoon-y, strikeout risk here. Jones struck out a lot his short Double-A trial and then in the 2019 Arizona Fall League. He’s not good against left-handed pitching and will need to be dropped in the lineup against lefties, and sometimes come off the bench. But again, Jones has elite feel for the zone and huge power. His skillset is a scaled down version of Adam Dunn‘s or Joey Gallo‘s, and quite similar to Pat Burrell‘s (other than the handedness). (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)
Age | 23.4 | Height | 6? 5? | Weight | 165 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 50 |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
50/50 | 45/50 | 55/55 | 45/50 | 50/60 | 90-95 / 97 |
Age | 20.1 | Height | 6? 0? | Weight | 190 | Bat / Thr | L / L | FV | 50 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
35/45 | 55/60 | 35/60 | 50/45 | 45/45 | 55 |
There, including in the Fall of 2020, Valera has the best combination of feel for contact and power among his peers in this system. Among the other teenagers, Valera looks like a jazz bassist jamming with a group of teenagers who taught themselves the guitar using Blink-182 tabs. He has great in-the-box rhythm and timing, unloading on pitches with veteran anticipation. When Valera’s curt, all-fields uppercut swing connects just right, you’d swear you were watching a young Robinson Cano, and like Cano, Valera is going to hit some emphatic, picturesque dingers. While his swinging style will likely always cause him to whiff more than average, he has the most potent hit/power combination in this system and there are scouts who think he should be ranked first in the org. Because he has so little actual pro experience, he is likely to play a corner outfield spot — I liked Valera’s defensive instincts enough to keep him alive in center field on last year’s list, but folks who saw him this Fall only watched him in right, so center seems to less likely to me now -and due to his track record of swinging and missing, other scouts think he should slide behind the hit-first middle infielders ranked a few spots behind him here. It’s very important for Valera to have a full, healthy 2021 since he’s part of huge contingent of prospects who need to be added to the 40-man next offseason. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)
Age | 20.0 | Height | 5? 10? | Weight | 150 | Bat / Thr | S / R | FV | 50 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
35/60 | 30/40 | 30/40 | 60/60 | 60/70 | 50 |
Age | 21.6 | Height | 6? 0? | Weight | 170 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 50 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
50/70 | 40/45 | 20/30 | 55/50 | 45/50 | 45 |
Age | 20.0 | Height | 6? 2? | Weight | 205 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 50 |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
65/65 | 55/60 | 50/55 | 45/55 | 40/50 | 94-97 / 99 |
We still don’t know whether Espino can hold his prodigious velocity for an entire season’s worth of starter innings because the pandemic put a premature end to what would have been his first full slate. Instead he pitched manicured innings at the alternate site, then did some remote development before instructs, where Espino did not throw in games due to a minor shoulder injury. This comes after he was only allowed to throw one or two frames per outing for his first several pro appearances, then three to four for his final few — Espino sat 94-97 and touched 99 with two plus breaking balls and starter’s command during those. Whether he retains that level of heat over an entire season’s worth of innings on regular rest (he was 92-97 in longer starts before the draft) we simply don’t know, but there’s no reason to think he is any more of an injury risk than other teenage pitchers unless you twist your brain into knots and conclude that his velocity is somehow a negative, or that he strength trains excessively.
His arm action is atypical and quite long, similar to Madison Bumgarner‘s, but it works for Espino. If, like Bumgarner, Espino loses some velocity even before he reaches the majors, be it due to a pro workload or injury, I think he has a command-centric, four-pitch strike-thrower outcome. His changeup is much better than I gave it credit for last year, and realizing that during calls with scouts to prep for this list is why Espino is moving up a FV tier even tough he was kept at the alt site all year. He’s an All-Star talent with a risky profile. (Alternate site, at-home dev)
Age | 20.9 | Height | 6? 0? | Weight | 205 | Bat / Thr | L / R | FV | 50 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
35/40 | 55/60 | 30/50 | 50/40 | 40/45 | 55 |
His swing’s a little grooved, but it is electric and produces big power for anyone, let alone a catcher. If he gets to most of it in games, and he has so far (he had strong amateur statistical performance, as well), there’s plenty of room for him to profile even if he ends up as a 40 bat, which I think is possible considering the lack of barrel variability. If he performs against High-A pitching early in 2021 and reinforces confidence in his ability to hit, he’ll move onto the Top 100. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)
45+ FV Prospects
Age | 19.7 | Height | 5? 11? | Weight | 175 | Bat / Thr | S / R | FV | 45+ |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
35/55 | 55/55 | 25/55 | 50/45 | 30/40 | 45 |
What’s important is that Bracho can really hit. He’s stout and strong and hits balls much harder than is typical for someone with a frame this compact. He’s patient and poised at the dish and clearly has an approach. He’ll take giant hacks in hitter’s counts and more measured ones when he’s adjusting to a breaking ball or just trying to put a ball in play, though his swing looks a little long at times. His bat head can take a deeper path to the bottom of the zone but it’s still usually on time because Bracho’s levers are so short. He’s quite polished for a hitter who won’t turn 20 until near the start of the 2021 season. There’s not a lot of body projection here despite Bracho’s age. He’s got a square, 5-foot-11-ish frame and is already physically mature. The lack of affiliated data here probably means the max exit velo listed for Bracho on The Board is less than he’s capable of producing, and someone from outside the org told me they saw him hit a ball 450 feet over the batter’s eye at the Reds place during a Fall game. I’d like to see him perform in more than 35 games to stick him in the Top 100, so for now consider Bracho a likely mid- or post-season addition with a profile similar to that of Shed Long Jr. and Nick Solak, both recent top 100 types. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)
Age | 20.9 | Height | 6? 1? | Weight | 201 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 45+ |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
30/35 | 55/60 | 35/50 | 55/55 | 55/60 | 70 |
The splashiest name in the Mike Clevinger trade was Arias because a) he’s been known and hyped for longer and b) he has a closer proximity to the big leagues than the others who were acquired. Arias was part of San Diego’s huge 2016 international signing class, inking a deal worth just shy of $2 million. He quickly became the most promising of the young infielders the club signed that year and was pushed to full season ball late during his age-17 season, well out ahead of the others in his class. After a rough statistical 2018 as a very young player at Low-A Fort Wayne, Arias had a great 2019 on paper, hitting .302/.339/.470 as a 19-year-old at Hi-A Lake Elsinore.
Arias looks like a stud at five o’clock when he’s taking batting practice and infield, but his in-game swing decisions have been a problem, and were even during that statistically impressive 2019. The Padres threw every developmental trick in the book at him during the 2019-20 offseason, including virtual reality training, to try to get him to better identify balls from strikes, and chase less often. In a small spring sample, it appeared to be working — Arias played some spring games in the place of Fernando Tatis Jr., who was one of several Padres to miss time with flu-like symptoms during the spring before baseball shut down. The importance of Arias’ approach extends beyond his on base ability to his power production. His swing is grooved, making the parts of the zone where he can do real damage limited, so for him to get to his power in games he’s not only going to have to recognize balls and strikes, but also learn what he can actually hit. It’s possible this will occur, and Arias will be a star if it does, but I think an Orlando Arcia trajectory — where there are growing pains and frustration amid flashes of spectacle — is more likely. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)
45 FV Prospects
Age | 20.2 | Height | 6? 2? | Weight | 190 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 45 |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|
60/60 | 50/60 | 40/50 | 40/50 | 92-95 / 97 |
Perhaps the most striking aspect of Torres’ post-draft performance was how regularly he located his slider down and to his glove side. He has mid-rotation components if you’re willing to dream based on his athleticism, age, and geographic background, even coming off of a 2019 surgery that, combined with COVID, caused Torres to miss nearly two seasons. (Fall Instructional League…sort of)
Age | 19.0 | Height | 6? 0? | Weight | 165 | Bat / Thr | S / R | FV | 45 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
25/55 | 40/50 | 20/45 | 60/60 | 40/50 | 60 |
This hitting style and Martinez’s relatively modest physical projection (he’s already a pretty ripped 6-feet) make me think the ultimate home run totals will be low but that he will still slug. He has catalytic qualities on offense and a chance to play a premium defensive position. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)
Age | 20.6 | Height | 6? 6? | Weight | 215 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 45 |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
55/60 | 50/55 | 50/50 | 45/50 | 30/50 | 92-95 / 97 |
Hankins had a strong showing on paper and video at the alt site, then looked visibly excellent in the Fall, appearing a little more svelte and really turning over an improved, power sink upper-80s changeup. His best two pitches remain his fastball, which several scouts saw up to 96 (I have him sitting 91-96, and 93-96 in separate outings), and a sharp mid-80s slider, which routinely shows plus. He also has a 12-to-6 curveball he can backdoor for strikes. It’s a starter’s toolbox of pitches, and Hankins will be a mid-rotation option should his velocity and slider bite, which have waxed and waned a bit during his time on the prospect radar, continue to look like they did in 2020. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)
Age | 24.5 | Height | 6? 8? | Weight | 245 | Bat / Thr | L / L | FV | 45 |
---|
Fastball | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|
65/65 | 55/55 | 45/45 | 35/40 | 91-95 / 99 |
Age | 24.1 | Height | 6? 0? | Weight | 190 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 45 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
40/55 | 50/50 | 30/40 | 45/45 | 45/50 | 55 |
Miller is arguably polished enough to play in the big leagues in 2021, and with Cleveland’s infield situation very touch and go with Cesar Hernandez leaving and Francisco Lindor primed to be traded, he may need to. If Cleveland ends up with a one-year stopgap, Miller doesn’t have to be put on the 40-man until December of next year, so even though he’s a polished hitter with upper-level experience and could feasibly be called upon to provide above-replacement-level reps in the event that Cleveland’s middle infield is beset by injury, he doesn’t have to occupy a valuable 40-man spot until it is absolutely necessary. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)
Age | 21.2 | Height | 6? 3? | Weight | 180 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 45 |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|
55/65 | 55/60 | 35/45 | 30/40 | 94-97 / 99 |
Age | 25.5 | Height | 5? 10? | Weight | 185 | Bat / Thr | L / L | FV | 45 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
40/45 | 55/55 | 40/45 | 70/70 | 50/50 | 80 |
Age | 21.0 | Height | 6? 4? | Weight | 220 | Bat / Thr | L / L | FV | 45 |
---|
Fastball | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|
45/50 | 40/45 | 55/60 | 40/55 | 87-90 / 92 |
He was a Pick to Click of mine last offseason, but Cantillo hasn’t added any fastball velocity (he sat 87-89 in the Fall), so I can’t justify moving him into the Top 100 this offseason. I still think, even at a lesser velocity, Cantillo’s fastball will play fine because of its flat angle and the big carry created by how perfectly it backspins, but it needs to become at least a low-90s offering to have a shot to dominate (like Colin Poche‘s fastball). It behooves Cantillo to add power to his breaking ball as well. Though it only needs to function as a pitch he can flip into the zone for a strike once in a while, it’s currently bending in at about 70 mph and that gives hitters too much time to adjust to it in mid-air. But Cantillo’s money pitch is his changeup, and his ability to locate it in consistently enticing areas. He’s still just 21 and his new org has a history of helping pitchers add velo, and for getting the most out of changeup/command pitchers, but until we see a velocity spike I’ll have Cantillo in the 45 FV tier. (Alternate site)
40+ FV Prospects
Age | 22.8 | Height | 6? 2? | Weight | 206 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 40+ |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|
80/80 | 50/55 | 40/40 | 98-100 / 102 |
Age | 18.9 | Height | 6? 1? | Weight | 175 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 40+ |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
20/45 | 45/55 | 20/50 | 55/50 | 45/50 | 60 |
Age | 22.0 | Height | 6? 0? | Weight | 215 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 40+ |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
45/50 | 50/55 | 45/45 | 45/50 | 40/50 | 90-94 / 95 |
Age | 22.3 | Height | 6? 0? | Weight | 180 | Bat / Thr | R / L | FV | 40+ |
---|
Fastball | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|
45/50 | 45/50 | 50/60 | 35/55 | 89-92 / 94 |
Age | 18.6 | Height | 6? 0? | Weight | 180 | Bat / Thr | L / R | FV | 40+ |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
25/55 | 35/45 | 20/40 | 60/60 | 45/55 | 60 |
Age | 19.0 | Height | 6? 0? | Weight | 180 | Bat / Thr | S / R | FV | 40+ |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
25/50 | 45/55 | 25/50 | 55/50 | 40/50 | 60 |
Cleveland’s young infield contingent has begun to spread throughout these rankings as their bodies mature and more light is shed on their likely defensive futures, and their showcase skills and hitting acumen are actually tested during in-game competition. Of all the teenage infielders, it’s Sanquintin’s profile that remains the cloudiest. There’s no scout consensus as to which infield spot he fits best, and both his left- and right-handed swings need to cleaned up to work but are really exciting because of his bat speed. He swings hard and shows power potential from both sides, but his hands are awfully noisy from the left, while his righty bat path sometimes chops downward in an ineffectual way.
But Sanquintin shows a crude knack for putting the bat on the ball and hitting it hard, and switch-hitters typically take a little longer to refine their swings. Sanquintin isn’t in the Ronny Mauricio mold where you can pretty easily see him adding 20 pounds while staying at shortstop. He’s a little more compact than that at a square-shouldered 6-foot-1, a little thicker and more physical than the typical 19 year old. He could end up at third base or as a big, strong, heavy-footed second baseman, or the cement might be dry on his frame and he stays at short. Either way, the important thing is that Sanquintin continue to refine his feel to hit from both sides of the plate, as switch-hitting infielders with power can basically play anywhere. (Fall Instructional League)
Age | 23.1 | Height | 6? 2? | Weight | 215 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 40+ |
---|
Fastball | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|
55/60 | 55/60 | 50/55 | 40/50 | 90-93 / 95 |
Age | 24.2 | Height | 6? 5? | Weight | 225 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 40+ |
---|
Fastball | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|
55/55 | 50/55 | 50/50 | 40/45 | 92-95 / 98 |
Age | 18.9 | Height | 6? 2? | Weight | 195 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 40+ |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
20/40 | 50/60 | 25/55 | 50/40 | 40/50 | 60 |
40 FV Prospects
Age | 22.7 | Height | 6? 6? | Weight | 212 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 40 |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
45/50 | 50/55 | 40/40 | 55/60 | 40/50 | 90-93 / 96 |
Age | 22.1 | Height | 6? 0? | Weight | 200 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 40 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
30/45 | 50/55 | 35/40 | 30/30 | 30/45 | 45 |
Lavastida continued to improve defensively and show ongoing signs of offensive competence during 2020 instructs, so with his 40-man deadline arriving in 2021, he’s no longer just an interesting developmental sleeper. He’s now a high-priority follow for teams (and for internal evaluation) throughout next season.
Though he squatted a few times at JUCO in the month leading up to the 2018 draft, Lavastida only totally moved from shortstop to catcher after he entered pro ball. His hitting hands are pretty powerful, working in a lift-friendly circle (Lavastida inside-outs some balls he could pull but he’s strong enough to do damage anyway), and Lavastida has had no issues adjusting to pro pitching while learning to catch. He struck out just 12% of the time against Penn League pitching in 2019. His defense may be challenged when he’s forced to catch real big league stuff with greater regularity, and because he was alternating between catching and DH during most of 2019 we don’t know whether Lavastida’s offense will be diluted by catcher’s bumps and bruises. But because he has a shot to both catch and be a viable offensive threat, Lavastida is a 2021 breakout candidate. (Fall Instructional League)
Age | 23.6 | Height | 5? 9? | Weight | 160 | Bat / Thr | L / R | FV | 40 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
35/60 | 40/40 | 30/30 | 60/60 | 45/50 | 40 |
Had he not gotten hurt and were it not for the pandemic, Palacios might have reached the majors already. He was a polished college hitter who walked 52 times and struck out just 16 as a junior at Towson while also swiping an ultra-efficient 25 bases in 26 attempts, and he hit .360/.420/.538 against low-level pro pitching after he signed. He’s a nearly plus-plus runner and a capable middle infield defender (probably at second, based on how his arm stroke works) with premium hand-eye coordination and bat control. He’s a line drive spray hitter without big game power, despite his impressive physique. There was some concern that Palacios beat up on small conference pitching his entire career, and that he may not replicate that performance against pro pitching, a concern he hasn’t yet had the opportunity to allay. He was one of the older prospects at instructs but also hadn’t seen in-game pitching for quite some time, making him a very difficult contextual evaluation. It’s rare for contact-oriented hitters to be high variance prospects, but the layoff and injuries push Palacios into that bucket. (Fall Instructional League)
Age | 19.8 | Height | 5? 9? | Weight | 160 | Bat / Thr | L / R | FV | 40 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
25/55 | 40/45 | 20/40 | 55/55 | 40/50 | 55 |
Age | 25.1 | Height | 6? 4? | Weight | 210 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 40 |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|
60/60 | 55/60 | 40/45 | 40/50 | 90-94 / 97 |
Age | 21.8 | Height | 5? 11? | Weight | 160 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 40 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
35/60 | 30/35 | 20/30 | 55/55 | 50/55 | 50 |
No change to Fermin’s blurb, as he’s the same guy. He had the eighth-lowest swinging strike rate in the minors in 2019, a measly 4%. He has a minimalistic cut and excellent hand-eye coordination, which have enabled him to run about an 8.5% strikeout rate the last two seasons. He’s also a capable defensive shortstop. Players like this often outperform eyeball-only evaluations and, heuristically, a hitter like this with almost elite bat-to-ball skills who also plays a premium position typically ends up in a higher FV tier than this. But in Fermin’s case, I think he lacks the power on contact to be an everyday player. I realize those can be famous last words when it comes to a profile like this one, but in this case I think the power is limiting and I have a low-variance bench infield grade on him. (Fall Instructional League)
Age | 19.1 | Height | 6? 1? | Weight | 180 | Bat / Thr | L / R | FV | 40 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
25/50 | 30/40 | 20/30 | 55/55 | 45/60 | 55 |
Age | 22.1 | Height | 6? 5? | Weight | 170 | Bat / Thr | L / L | FV | 40 |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
50/50 | 40/45 | 50/50 | 55/55 | 45/50 | 91-94 / 96 |
Age | 24.6 | Height | 6? 1? | Weight | 225 | Bat / Thr | L / R | FV | 40 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
30/35 | 70/70 | 50/55 | 20/20 | 40/45 | 50 |
Age | 19.4 | Height | 6? 2? | Weight | 180 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 40 |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
20/40 | 50/60 | 25/55 | 45/45 | 40/50 | 60 |
35+ FV Prospects
Age | 19.4 | Height | 5? 10? | Weight | 170 | Bat / Thr | S / R | FV | 35+ |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
20/40 | 40/45 | 20/40 | 55/55 | 50/60 | 50 |
Age | 26.6 | Height | 6? 1? | Weight | 185 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 35+ |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Curveball | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|
50/50 | 55/55 | 50/50 | 40/40 | 91-94 / 95 |
Hill threw more strikes than expected during his 2020 debut, which allowed him to succeed despite a downtick in velocity. His heater has natural cut at times and both of his breaking balls are consistently average and flash plus, the slider doing so more often than the curve. He’s an up/down reliever if he’s still parked in the low-90s, but might grab hold of a consistent bullpen spot if his velo bounces back into the mid-90s, which is where it was in 2019 (93-96). (Alternate site)
Age | 24.6 | Height | 5? 10? | Weight | 190 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 35+ |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
45/45 | 45/50 | 45/45 | 60/70 | 50/55 | 87-90 / 92 |
Age | 24.3 | Height | 6? 1? | Weight | 190 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 35+ |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|
40/40 | 55/55 | 50/55 | 87-90 / 92 |
Age | 24.0 | Height | 5? 11? | Weight | 170 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 35+ |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
45/45 | 50/55 | 50/50 | 50/55 | 50/60 | 90-93 / 95 |
Age | 26.2 | Height | 6? 6? | Weight | 225 | Bat / Thr | L / L | FV | 35+ |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|
55/55 | 50/50 | 50/50 | 35/40 | 89-93 / 95 |
Age | 24.4 | Height | 6? 4? | Weight | 240 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 35+ |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|
50/50 | 50/55 | 45/50 | 50/50 | 90-94 / 95 |
Age | 19.5 | Height | 6? 1? | Weight | 190 | Bat / Thr | R / R | FV | 35+ |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
20/45 | 55/70 | 25/60 | 30/20 | 40/55 | 55 |
Age | 25.2 | Height | 6? 4? | Weight | 220 | Bat / Thr | L / L | FV | 35+ |
---|
Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Sits/Tops |
---|---|---|---|---|
50/55 | 55/60 | 40/45 | 45/55 | 90-93 / 95 |
Age | 23.3 | Height | 5? 9? | Weight | 175 | Bat / Thr | L / L | FV | 35+ |
---|
Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
35/60 | 30/30 | 30/30 | 45/45 | 50/55 | 50 |
Other Prospects of Note
Young Hit Tool Sleepers
Luis Durango Jr., OF
Jose Pastrano, SS
Jonathan Lopez, 3B
Dayan Frias, INF
Victor Nova, 3B
Christian Cairo, 2B
Joe Naranjo, 1B
The most common Cleveland prospect trope is the contact-oriented infielder; here are several more. Durango, whose father played in the ’09 Futures Game, has a tweener fourth outfielder vibe but could be a regular if he ends up with a plus bat. He signed for $500,000 last year and needed Tommy John in 2020. Pastrano signed for $1.5 million last year. He’s a switch-hitting infielder with advanced feel for contact and a medium frame but scouts who saw him in the Fall of 2020 didn’t think he had big-league explosion. Lopez was sent to Mahoning Valley at 19 and dealt with some injuries last year. He has a sweet lefty swing and I think he has had some of his playing time crowded out by other talented youngsters in this system. Frias is another short-levered, switch-hitting infielder with feel for contact. He’s been playing in the Colombian Winter League. Nova is a powerfully-built 5-foot-9, has feel to hit, a somewhat advanced idea of the strike zone, and well-regarded makeup. He plays multiple positions — 2B/3B/OF — but none all that well. He’s an interesting bat-first flier who was taken on from San Diego in the three-team Trevor Bauer deal. Cairo is Miguel Cairo‘s son. I think he has a utility ceiling based on the tools. Naranjo was a SoCal pop-up bat who needs to get there by way of an elite hit tool. He doesn’t have much power projection so the contact has to carry the whole profile a la Jake Bauers’ prospectdom, and Naranjo still looked very raw in the Fall of 2020.
40-Man Depth Arms
Kyle Nelson, LHP
Jerson Ramirez, RHP
Juan Mota, RHP
Xzavion Curry, LHP
Kirk McCarty, LHP
Mason Hickman, RHP
Nelson will show you a 70-grade breaking ball once in a while but righty batters see the ball for a long time against him, even though he appears to hide it well. He only throws about 90 mph, and I think he’d need a third pitch to be more than a LOOGY. Ramirez, 22, throws fairly hard (up to 95) and is really athletic, but his body is maxed out. Mota will show you 93-96 with a plus slider but he has 30 control. Curry was drafted out of Georgia Tech with a shoulder injury. His fastball isn’t all that hard but has tough angle, and this org is good at making pitchers throw harder. The same is true for Hickman. His fastball has perfect backspin but he was only 87-89 when I saw him with Vanderbilt in the spring. McCarty’s report is unchanged from last year: he’s another lefty whose fastball has huge carry and misses bats even though it’s 88-92. His breaking ball has vertical action.
Toolsy, but Contact/Profile Concerns
Yainer Diaz, C
Quentin Holmes, CF
Will Benson, RF
Oscar Gonzalez, RF
Diaz moves to the front of this group after a decent Instructional League showing. He has warts but hits the ball really hard. The others here don’t make enough contact to be on the main section of the list. Holmes has elite speed, Benson elite power and arm strength. Both of them are lauded for their makeup, but I just don’t think either will hit enough to play in the big leagues consistently. Benson might TTO his way there. Gonzalez swings at everything but has plus power. All of these guys are in their early-20s.
System Overview
As always, Cleveland has some clear talent acquisition tendencies that they execute well and combine with fantastic player development (especially on the pitching side) to keep this system flush with talent. It’s really what enables the big league club to compete even though the front office can’t spend a lot of money. Let’s talk through those tendencies. First, this org usually drafts younger high schoolers. The closer to 17 the player is on draft day, the more likely they are to be picked by Cleveland. This proclivity seems to also have a geographical bent, as the team loves to take high school hitters from areas of high talent concentration, especially Southern California. These high schoolers often have a contact-centric profile, though the club’s approach to acquiring bat-to-ball talent (usually that switch-hits) is more extreme on the international side, where other clubs think Cleveland keeps diligent statistics that drive their decision making.
Cleveland also seems adept at understanding which pitchers they can fix or optimize, not just through velocity training but through pitch design and repertoire usage. They’re great at drafting college performers and tweaking something about them that enables them to compete at the upper-levels of pro ball.
We need to talk about Francisco Lindor. Remember, I’m the guy who took him ahead of Mookie Betts during our site’s 2019 franchise player draft. It’s horrendous that the club should trade a bonafide superstar whose smile shines like Archimedes’ Mirror. But since it appears as though they will, let’s examine how they’ll need to do it. It’s likely one of Lavastida or Diaz will break out and need to go on the 40-man. Palacios will have a season to prove he should, too. The entire 2017 international class (Bracho, Rocchio, Tena, Valera, Planez) plus Tyler Freeman needs to be added. And Cody Morris, Joey Cantillo, and both sidearm relievers do as well.
Not all of those players will pan out in the next 11 months, and someone who is currently on the big league roster will likely be non-tendered next year. But there are just too many viable prospects whose 40-man timelines start next year for Cleveland to avoid a crunch. Any package in return for Lindor either needs to a) involve quality over quantity or b) involve several really young players nowhere near the 40-man, or else they’ll need to package some of their current and future 40-man guys in other trades over the next few months. Based on how Cleveland has operated when trading established big leaguers lately (and given how other teams are behaving in similar circumstances), I expect they’ll choose the second option.
Does that make any team a particularly good fit? St. Louis has a pretty sizable contingent of recent high school draftees, including model-friendly, power-hitting third baseman Jordan Walker. The Cardinals also have a glut of upper-level outfielders who might fit into Cleveland’s platoon-heavy strategy (Bader, Thomas, O’Neill, etc.). The Angels have also taken a lot of the younger high schoolers available in recent drafts (Kyren Paris, David Calabrese) but their financial situation seems precarious after the way their owner behaved last year. Perhaps then San Francisco’s young, deep international contingent (Marco Luciano might be untouchable but a few of Luis Toribio, Luis Matos, etc. could be enticing) and rumored financial health is a better fit, but they’re probably too early in the rebuild to start cashing in prospects, even if it is for someone like Lindor. Maybe. Regardless, it’s an unenviable needle to have to thread, no matter how well this org has played in recent years nor how sustainable their success appears to be.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.