The Unlikeliest No-Hitter
Mills’ story deserves telling, though because he’s been an afterthought for much of his career, it wouldn’t be a surprise if you hadn’t heard it before. He was a walk-on at Tennessee-Martin before developing into their ace. Heading into the 2012 draft, Baseball America noted his good “control of an upper-80s fastball that bumps 90 mph at times” as well as “a slurvy breaking ball and nascent changeup.” He was drafted in a round — the 22nd — MLB would prefer doesn’t exist and sent to a rookie-league likely to be disbanded come 2021. He moved slowly through the minor leagues, needing Tommy John surgery early on, but pitched well all the way up through Triple-A in 2016 and made three appearances for the Royals that season.
Entering Sunday’s game, Mills had played pretty much as advertised. He wasn’t striking out many hitters, but posted a slightly above-average walk rate and solid groundball rate. He used his sinker to get those groundballs, but left the pitch up enough to surrender five of his eight homers on a pitch he throws about a third of the time. Those homers and a lack of strikeouts meant a 5.22 FIP entering Sunday, 14% below league average, though perfectly acceptable for an end-of-the-rotation starter. His 4.74 ERA was better and pretty close to league average, though the difference between his ERA and FIP was likely due in large part to a solid Cubs’ defense that has also helped Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and the rest of the Cubs’ staff to lower figures than their Statcast data expects.
That was entering Sunday. Then Mills went out and threw a no-hitter.
His pitch usage, strikeouts, walks, and groundball rate were all fairly in line with his season norms. Where Mills excelled on Sunday was with his command. He got first pitch strikes more often than he normally does and did a better job avoiding the center of the plate. Here is Mills’ heat map entering Sunday, as well as for his no-hitter:
And here’s where the batted balls he surrendered were located in the zone:
There’s a hole in the middle, and the reason for that hole is that Mills rarely pitched in the middle of the plate. Only six of his pitches were center-center, and two of those were offspeed offerings. Good command and a quality pitch-mix are never going to be enough to throw a no-hitter, however. It takes a little help. Sometimes, no-hitters are marked by fabulous defensive plays that save the game, though there weren’t really any of those bolstering Mills’ bid on Sunday. Sometimes guys get a bit lucky. Mills allowed some hard-hit balls, though most of those came in the first couple of innings. The Statcast profile of his batted balls is below:
| Batter | Inning | EV (MPH) | LA (Deg.) | Dist (ft.) | xBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 1 | 98.1 | 22 | 341 | .46 |
| Christian Yelich | 1 | 95.2 | -10 | 11 | .29 |
| Jedd Gyorko | 2 | 102.1 | 23 | 388 | .81 |
| Orlando Arcia | 2 | 98.2 | 6 | 112 | .61 |
| Jacob Nottingham | 3 | 106 | -3 | 29 | .45 |
| Avisail Garcia | 3 | 75.8 | 1 | 46 | .19 |
| Christian Yelich | 4 | 104.4 | 14 | 287 | .74 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 4 | 97.9 | -10 | 12 | .25 |
| Jedd Gyorko | 5 | 99.6 | 48 | 326 | .02 |
| Ben Gamel | 5 | 81 | 11 | 154 | .47 |
| Orlando Arcia | 5 | 88.9 | 25 | 309 | .12 |
| Eric Sogard | 6 | 95.4 | -3 | 25 | .30 |
| Avisail Garcia | 6 | 85.4 | -6 | 21 | .37 |
| Christian Yelich | 7 | 101.7 | -12 | 14 | .36 |
| Keston Hiura | 7 | 74.5 | 34 | 253 | .15 |
| Jedd Gyorko | 7 | 58.4 | 60 | 123 | .01 |
| Ben Gamel | 8 | 59.4 | 83 | 47 | .00 |
| Orlando Arcia | 8 | 89.6 | -4 | 27 | .28 |
| Eric Sogard | 8 | 69.1 | 73 | 86 | .00 |
| Jacob Nottingham | 9 | 58.2 | 72 | 73 | .00 |
| Jace Peterson | 9 | 99.5 | -4 | 20 | .46 |
If we were to consider the chances of every single batted ball being an out, the odds are about one in 10,000, though on batted balls after the second inning, the odds of no hits on those plays is much better, at about one in 273. One of those balls in the first two innings, a Jedd Gyorko shot, required a solid play by Ian Happ in center field:
If Gyorko hits that ball just a tiny bit later, it’s either a homer or a double. If the launch angle is just a bit higher, the ball flies out of the park pretty easily. It didn’t, though. And none of the other decently-hit balls dropped, either. I went back and took a look at the batted balls for no-hitters in the Statcast era, and Mills’ effort Sunday was the unlikeliest based on exit velocity and launch angle:
| Pitcher | Date | Chances of No-Hitter | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Mills | 9/13/2020 | 0.01% | 1 in 9600 |
| James Paxton | 5/8/2018 | 0.05% | 1 in 1993 |
| Jake Arrieta | 8/30/2015 | 0.06% | 1 in 1687 |
| Cole Hamels | 7/25/2015 | 0.16% | 1 in 609 |
| Mike Fiers | 5/7/2019 | 0.28% | 1 in 358 |
| Lucas Giolito | 8/25/2020 | 0.32% | 1 in 316 |
| Sean Manaea | 4/21/2018 | 0.41% | 1 in 243 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | 8/12/2015 | 0.46% | 1 in 218 |
| Jake Arrieta | 4/21/2016 | 0.73% | 1 in 136 |
| Mike Fiers | 8/21/2015 | 0.89% | 1 in 112 |
| Edinson Volquez | 6/3/2017 | 2.92% | 1 in 34 |
| Max Scherzer | 10/3/2015 | 3.09% | 1 in 32 |
| Max Scherzer | 6/20/2015 | 6.18% | 1 in 16 |
| Chris Heston | 6/9/2015 | 7.75% | 1 in 13 |
| Justin Verlander | 9/1/2019 | 15.17% | 1 in 7 |
The Brewers had enough hard-hit balls to think a few would drop for hits. Of course, all no-hitters require good fortune. A pitcher could strike out 21 of 27 batters, have six batted balls with just a 10% chance of going for a hit, and still only have a 50/50 shot at a no-hitter. And it isn’t just no-hitters, either. Any championship team, any big comeback, needs a lot of good fortune. At the major league level, baseball is a constant one-on-one battle between two of the very best at what they do. Hard work and great skills put them in that position, but sometimes luck plays a role, too. Alec Mills’ no-hitter required considerable good fortune, and more good fortune than other recent no-hitters. But good fortune makes for great outcomes. Mills earned the chance to be the beneficiary of some of that luck and made baseball history along the way.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
