Postseason Ends Quickly for the Punchless Reds
The Braves completed their two-game sweep of the Reds in convincing fashion on Thursday afternoon, winning 5-0 and advancing to the National League Division Series to face the winner of the Marlins and Cubs. Luis Castillo wasn’t quite as sharp as Trevor Bauer was in his Game 1 masterpiece, but he threw effectively for 5 1/3 innings, striking out seven and allowing just a single run.
Player | Tm | Series | Game Score |
---|---|---|---|
Nolan Ryan | Houston Astros | 1986 NLCS Game 5 | 90 |
Mike Mussina | Baltimore Orioles | 1997 ALCS Game 6 | 88 |
Trevor Bauer | Cincinnati Reds | 2020 NLWC Game 1 | 87 |
Mike Cuellar | Baltimore Orioles | 1973 ALCS Game 3 | 84 |
Johnny Cueto | San Francisco Giants | 2016 NLDS Game 1 | 82 |
Sherry Smith | Brooklyn Robins | 1916 WS Game 2 | 82 |
Matt Moore | San Francisco Giants | 2016 NLDS Game 4 | 80 |
Noah Syndergaard | New York Mets | 2016 NLWC Game 1 | 80 |
Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 2013 ALCS Game 2 | 80 |
Homer Bailey | Cincinnati Reds | 2012 NLDS Game 3 | 80 |
Mike Mussina | Baltimore Orioles | 1997 ALCS Game 3 | 80 |
Bob Turley | New York Yankees | 1956 WS Game 6 | 80 |
Jordan Zimmermann | Washington Nationals | 2014 NLDS Game 2 | 79 |
Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 2013 ALCS Game 3 | 79 |
Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 2013 ALDS Game 2 | 79 |
Barry Zito | Oakland Athletics | 2001 ALDS Game 3 | 79 |
John Smoltz | Atlanta Braves | 1996 WS Game 5 | 79 |
Don Newcombe | Brooklyn Dodgers | 1949 WS Game 1 | 79 |
Mordecai Brown | Chicago Cubs | 1906 WS Game 1 | 79 |
Adam Wainwright | St. Louis Cardinals | 2009 NLDS Game 2 | 78 |
In the end, the only real difference between Castillo’s solid start (game score of 57) and Bauer’s historic one was that Castillo (and the bullpen) allowing runs ended agony after just nine innings. The Braves went up against Castillo swinging and swinging hard, an approach that proved effective, though they only managed to string enough hits together to score a single run, a double to center that scored Austin Riley from second. The .400 BABIP against Castillo (six of 15) could be described as only slightly unlucky; given the expected batting average of the balls put into play against him, we’d expect the Braves to have ended up with 5.3 hits on-average.
On the flip side, the Reds proved to be a bit unlucky against the Braves pitchers, putting 17 balls in play and only notching two hits. Based on the xBA of Cincinnati’s 17 balls in play, we would have expected two or three more of them to land as hits than actually did, with an average of 4.5 hits.
This was nothing new for the Reds, either, and it’s fitting that the team’s biggest weakness in 2020’s regular season proved to be their downfall. Going back 1910 for the NL and 1913 for the AL, the years strikeouts officially became a tracked stat, the 2020 Reds had the second-lowest BABIP of any team (.245), trailing only the 1968 Yankees (.241). And they really do have a case for rotten luck, too. I track BABIP vs. zBABIP for teams as well as individual players and from 2002-2019, the years for which we have advanced data available, the average zBABIP “miss” compared to BABIP was seven points. For the 2020 Reds, that miss was 57 points. Now you’d expect to see more volatility in 60 games than 162, but even if you simply track the total hit shortfall, a quantitative measure, the Reds almost did in 60 games what it took everyone else more than twice the games to “accomplish.”
Team | BABIP | zBABIP | Diff | H | zH | Missing H |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 Padres | .277 | .300 | -.023 | 1199 | 1276 | -77 |
2004 Mets | .282 | .302 | -.020 | 1376 | 1448 | -72 |
2004 Expos | .273 | .291 | -.018 | 1361 | 1432 | -71 |
2003 Tigers | .272 | .292 | -.020 | 1312 | 1382 | -70 |
2020 Reds | .245 | .302 | -.057 | 390 | 458 | -68 |
2002 Royals | .282 | .300 | -.018 | 1415 | 1483 | -68 |
2010 Angels | .281 | .299 | -.018 | 1363 | 1430 | -67 |
2017 Pirates | .286 | .304 | -.018 | 1331 | 1396 | -65 |
2003 Athletics | .273 | .291 | -.018 | 1398 | 1462 | -64 |
2013 Cubs | .275 | .293 | -.018 | 1307 | 1370 | -63 |
2013 Marlins | .280 | .297 | -.017 | 1257 | 1319 | -62 |
2012 Cubs | .286 | .303 | -.017 | 1297 | 1359 | -62 |
2017 Angels | .277 | .294 | -.017 | 1314 | 1372 | -58 |
2005 Mariners | .289 | .304 | -.015 | 1408 | 1464 | -56 |
2005 Twins | .291 | .306 | -.015 | 1441 | 1495 | -54 |
2018 Diamondbacks | .286 | .303 | -.017 | 1283 | 1336 | -53 |
2016 Athletics | .280 | .295 | -.015 | 1352 | 1404 | -52 |
2012 Mariners | .276 | .291 | -.015 | 1285 | 1337 | -52 |
2020 Dodgers | .276 | .313 | -.037 | 523 | 573 | -50 |
2019 Mariners | .287 | .303 | -.016 | 1305 | 1353 | -48 |
The difference of three or four hits in fortune between the Braves and Reds could have proved meaningful in a scoreless or 1-0 game. But the delicate ripples of luck didn’t affect the final outcome as Raisel Iglesias‘s two walks and two home runs allowed — a 107 mph Marcell Ozuna sizzler followed by an even hotter Adam Duvall line drive shot a few batters later — gave the Braves four insurance runs and Mark Melancon a ninth inning that was more of a casual tuneup than a high-pressure showdown.
[embedded content]Ian Anderson‘s great rookie story continued into his first postseason start. While San Diego’s addition of Mike Clevinger was the splashiest move at the deadline, Anderson was as valuable a de facto acquisition as any player in baseball and for the Braves, it was a life preserver. Mike Soroka‘s ruptured tendon and the general lousiness of much of the rest of the rotation left Atlanta’s starting depth paper-thin, which isn’t what you want in a postseason with no mid-series off days. Outside of Max Fried and Anderson, Atlanta’s starting pitchers combined to go 4-14 with a 7.33 ERA over 163 1/3 innings, for -0.6 WAR. To finish 35-25 with that pitching depth was nothing short of a miracle.
Anderson struck out nine batters over six innings of work, getting the win, with the only flaws being a couple of walks and a pair of singles to Eugenio Suarez and Freddy Galvis. His Game Score of 75 is the 17th-best postseason debut for a pitcher 23 or younger, just behind Soroka’s 76 is NLDS Game 3 last year. (Sadly, former Brave Bill James only ranks third in this list of Bill James Game Scores.)
Whether the Braves end up facing the Cubs or the Marlins, the rotation will provide a greater challenge, with Atlanta in a worse position to find starting pitching for five consecutive games on five consecutive days than most of the other teams in the playoffs. But to unpack that, you’ll have to wait for our NLDS previews. For now, the Braves advance, while the Reds’ offseason begins.