Projections are not destiny, as I’m prone to say, and Hall of Famers generally don’t get to Cooperstown merely by following their median projections for the final decade of their careers. They exceed expectations, often for years at a time, because that’s what the best players do. Via ZiPS, Freeman has a 49% chance of reaching 2,500 hits, and a 32% chance of reaching 3,000 hits, the latter of which would pretty much guarantee his election. Meanwhile, he’s got a 51% chance at 400 homers, and a 35% chance at 450, though just a 5% chance at 500, a milestone that has become less predictive of Hall of Fame berths in the wake of the steroid era anyway.

Those traditional milestones may be important to Freeman’s case, because on the advanced statistical front, he’ll likely fall short of the JAWS standard unless he produces a few more seasons in line with his best ones. The good news is that Freeman’s 31.9 peak WAR leaves plenty of room for improvement, because he’s got some comparatively middling seasons within; his best seven seasons in descending order of WAR, are 6.3, 5.6, 5.3, 4.7, 4.0, and 3.0 twice. Those last two would be replaced by his 2021 and ’22 ZiPS projections, taking his peak score to 35.2 (the same, incidentally, as that of David Ortiz), and lifting his JAWS as based on the career total above to 46.7. That’s still good for only 25th all-time, ahead of only six of the 21 enshrined first basemen but only one BBWAA-elected one, namely Tony Perez.

Freeman almost certainly has to get into the five-win range multiple times to improve his chances in terms of WAR and JAWS, and yes, it’s a bummer that he was robbed of an opportunity to do so while swinging such a hot bat this year, but in that regard he can stand in line with all of the candidates who missed time due to military service or strikes. Such context is always necessary to add to an evaluation of a player’s Hall of Fame case, but if Freeman doesn’t approach this level again, he’s not getting in anyway. Of the 12 first basemen with exactly three seasons of 5.0 WAR or better, only Thome, Harmon Killebrew, and Orlando Cepeda are in the Hall, the first two thanks largely to their home run totals (Killebrew had 586); Thome exceeds the JAWS standard (57.2 vs. 54.8) and wasn’t far off the peak standard (41.5 vs. 42.7). Among eligible first basemen outside the Hall, Mark McGwire has the most seasons of at least 5.0 WAR, with eight, though it’s not WAR but PED connections that have kept him outside. Keith Hernandez has six such seasons; Helton, Dolph Camilli, and John Olerud five; McGriff, Jack Fornier, Jason Giambi, Don Mattingly, Rafael Palmeiro, and Bill White four. Among active first basemen, Votto has six, Miguel Cabrera five, and Goldschmidt four, though to be fair, they’re all older than Freeman.

So again, Freeman probably needs some big seasons in the WAR department. Odds-wise, he has a 45% chance of getting to 60 WAR according to ZiPS, with a 37% chance of getting to 65, a 27% chance of getting to 70, and a 19% chance of getting to 75. Particularly to get to 65 or higher, it would be virtually impossible for Freeman not to increase his peak score in the process of boosting his WAR. Eyeballing it, I’d guess that based on his odds of reaching traditional milestones — primarily his hit total — Freeman probably has somewhere around a 35-40% chance at a Hall of Fame berth, but based on his odds of reaching the JAWS standard, it’s more like 25-30% (70.0/40.0/55.0 would do it). Those aren’t particularly favorable odds, but they’re not long-shots either; in fact, they’re right in the range of batting averages and on-base percentages. The longer Freeman can keep posting those .300 AVG, .400 OBP seasons, the more likely it is he’ll outdo the projections above and improve his chances of making it to Cooperstown.