2021 ZiPS Projections: Arizona Diamondbacks

December 8, 2020

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

ZiPS Projections

20212020

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Batters

Intending to compete in 2020, the Diamondbacks spent the first half of the abbreviated season in the hunt for one of the Wild Card spots. Arizona hit their high-water mark the morning of August 19, standing in the thick of the race with a 13-11 record. That’s not to say everything went as planned; the team’s pitching staff had an ERA of 5.17, and the offense ranked in the middle of the pack. But contending is contending, and the projections still looked relatively bullish, with Steamer giving Arizona a 62% chance of making the playoffs and ZiPS a 60% shot. Those prognostications turned out to be very overly-optimistic; the D-backs dropped 11 of their next 12 games, a mortal blow in a season of only 60 games. The result was a club that became an aggressive seller at the deadline. Gone were Archie Bradley, Starling Marte, Robbie Ray, and Andrew Chafin as Arizona signaled a significant rebuild.

The D-backs enters the offseason in a much less commanding position than they did last year. Yes, they have a great deal of payroll flexibility, with an estimated luxury tax number more than $100 million below the penalty threshold. The giant “but” here, however, is that they’re also a team that’s very hard to significantly upgrade, full of middling players but with few stars and few obvious gaping holes. Taking a quick peek at the handy-dandy depth chart graphic, Arizona’s lowest-ranked position is the Carson Kelly/Stephen Vogt combination, projected at 1.2 WAR, mostly due to ZiPS being bearish on the latter player. The Colorado Rockies aren’t likely to actually do much in free agency, but if they did, any free agent they’d sign would likely add more wins to their team than to Arizona’s.

That gives the D-backs two paths to avoiding .500-team purgatory. First, they could spend aggressively and add players who would be real upgrades, like George Springer or Trevor Bauer. In an offseason when the league is likely to be more conservative than usual, this route would be my personal preference, but if they had the willingness to do that, it makes a lot less sense to have traded Marte or Bradley. Lesser signings are unlikely to make a giant dent, with only five position players and five starting pitchers currently projected to upgrade the team’s projection by at least a win over what they already have.

The second option — attempting to assemble an 85-win team and catch lightning in a bottle — is arguably a worse strategy in the West than in any other division in baseball. The Dodgers and Padres will likely enter the season projected as the best and second-best teams in the National League respectively, limiting Arizona’s upside by removing a whole boatload of division-winning scenarios.

For the lineup as a whole, only one player who has a good shot at being a star in 2021, namely Ketel Marte, who was still a key contributor despite the evaporation of his 2020 power. Outside of the remaining Marte, not only is there no one in the lineup who is currently a star, there’s who has a puncher’s chance of at least playing like a star for a year. Looking at the ZiPS percentile projections, Nick Ahmed has a 14% chance at a four-win season, Eduardo Escobar is at 8%, and everyone else is below Escobar’s number. Now, there are players in the lower minors with more upside, but it’s unlikely that 2021 will be their time to shine.

Pitchers

The pitching staff is in a place similar to the lineup. The team’s bright spot is Zac Gallen, who is now nearly undoubtedly the most valuable part of the organization. ZiPS was a giant fan of Gallen coming into 2020, projecting him at 12-7 with a 3.62 ERA, 121 ERA+, and 3.2 WAR in 29 starts. He even got a Greg Maddux top comp, albeit Greg Maddux before he became Greg Maddux. Gallen continued to pitch at that level, finishing just out of the top 10 in the NL in WAR. From a projection standpoint, he is likely to poke in at the back of the top 10 in rest-of-career WAR among pitchers when all the numbers are in. It’s time for the baseball world to stop underrating him.

The rest of the rotation is much less exciting. Luke Weaver is easily the most interesting returning starter. His 2020 was a disaster, but a good chunk of that was due to a .349 BABIP that is unlikely to persist next season, and the rest of his performance record is more encouraging. There were already reasons to be worried about Madison Bumgarner before 2020, making his drop in velocity (a full 3 mph) doubly concerning. Clayton Kershaw has had a similar decline in velocity, but unlike Bumgarner, it hasn’t resulted in a nearly 15% barrel rate from opposing batters. Bumgarner will claw back some value by getting to bat in 2021, which now appears likely, but that’s not going to push Arizona over the top.

Closing out games for Arizona is a relief corps that’s neither impressive at the front nor deep at the back. ZiPS thinks Stefan Crichton and Kevin Ginkel will be above-average but won’t match up against the high-leverage relievers on other contenders. The back of the bullpen looks like it will mainly be made up of whatever remaining rotation castoffs start the season on the roster, mostly with projections right around replacement level. Unlike the lineup and the starting rotation, the team could make significant improvements here in free agency without spending absurd amounts of cash. The problem is that Arizona has a tough playoff road if their only big improvements are bullpen-related.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Ketel Marte	B	27	CF	635	580	79	167	35	9	19	69	45	86	7	2
Nick Ahmed	R	31	SS	554	505	68	129	29	4	15	72	42	112	7	2
Eduardo Escobar	B	32	3B	600	548	71	139	29	7	22	82	41	117	3	2
Tim Locastro	R	28	CF	407	357	57	94	22	4	7	34	24	75	20	2
Kole Calhoun	L	33	RF	541	472	74	112	23	2	25	75	57	130	4	2
Christian Walker	R	30	1B	567	508	78	131	31	3	23	79	48	138	4	1
Carson Kelly	R	26	C	389	348	43	84	17	0	14	50	37	81	0	0
David Peralta	L	33	LF	517	476	56	131	25	3	15	66	35	105	2	1
Wyatt Mathisen	R	27	3B	372	320	48	74	15	1	14	47	36	105	2	1
Daulton Varsho	L	24	C	428	385	54	93	17	4	13	42	34	101	14	4
Kevin Cron	R	28	1B	433	385	56	91	19	1	24	71	37	129	1	1
Andy Young	R	27	2B	477	419	55	93	17	4	18	55	33	134	3	2
Domingo Leyba	B	25	SS	506	467	61	118	27	4	12	52	32	92	1	2
Christian Lopes	R	28	2B	507	447	56	107	25	2	11	46	48	107	12	5
Juniel Querecuto	B	28	SS	452	423	44	108	19	4	5	37	21	84	8	4
Seth Beer	L	24	1B	584	523	70	135	24	0	23	69	37	137	1	4
Josh Rojas	L	27	LF	542	485	65	119	25	4	13	50	49	116	18	8
Pavin Smith	L	25	1B	480	430	54	112	20	4	11	44	44	80	3	1
Geraldo Perdomo	B	21	SS	455	397	47	88	16	3	5	32	44	93	19	12
Jose Herrera	B	24	C	292	259	26	51	13	1	3	19	29	69	1	1
Renae Martinez	R	27	C	401	367	39	76	17	0	9	35	27	108	0	2
Josh VanMeter	L	26	LF	450	398	53	90	24	3	13	52	45	110	10	4
Dominic Miroglio	R	26	C	337	311	31	72	16	1	4	26	19	58	1	1
Drew Ellis	R	25	3B	482	431	48	90	20	0	14	48	45	145	1	4
Ben DeLuzio	R	26	CF	425	386	41	86	16	5	4	27	28	116	20	10
Jake McCarthy	L	23	CF	275	254	26	58	14	3	2	20	18	69	16	5
John Hicks	R	31	C	361	340	35	77	17	0	12	43	17	109	2	2
Gavin Cecchini	R	27	2B	406	373	41	90	17	1	7	33	28	78	4	3
Alek Thomas	L	21	CF	474	436	52	104	20	5	9	42	33	121	10	10
Ryan Grotjohn	L	26	LF	391	351	36	75	16	3	6	28	29	116	3	6
Stephen Vogt	L	36	C	307	279	28	62	20	1	9	39	25	68	1	0
Jancarlos Cintron	R	26	SS	421	395	41	92	17	2	6	33	19	65	4	5
Dalton Pompey	B	28	LF	246	218	25	45	9	0	4	17	23	73	8	3
Jon Jay	L	36	RF	376	341	41	86	12	2	2	23	19	71	3	1
Stuart Fairchild	R	25	CF	490	441	49	94	19	4	8	43	37	133	8	7
L.T. Tolbert	L	25	2B	439	409	41	99	20	1	4	32	23	75	3	4
Alberto Rosario	R	34	C	205	192	17	42	4	0	1	11	10	43	0	1
Camden Duzenack	R	26	2B	453	413	46	79	15	3	13	43	27	128	8	5
Eduardo Diaz	R	23	LF	426	399	42	88	17	4	8	35	18	108	9	4
Trayce Thompson	R	30	CF	369	343	39	64	13	2	13	41	24	135	5	3
Yoel Yanqui	L	25	1B	469	429	45	91	19	3	5	34	36	128	11	7

Batters – Advanced

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	ISO	BABIP	RC/27	Def	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Ketel Marte	.288	.343	.478	111	.190	.312	6.3	3	3.6	Mark Kotsay
Nick Ahmed	.255	.312	.418	88	.162	.302	4.8	8	2.4	Jay Bell
Eduardo Escobar	.254	.307	.453	95	.199	.286	5.0	2	1.8	Scott Spiezio
Tim Locastro	.263	.348	.406	97	.143	.316	5.7	-2	1.6	Rajai Davis
Kole Calhoun	.237	.325	.453	100	.216	.274	5.2	3	1.6	Jeromy Burnitz
Christian Walker	.258	.326	.467	104	.209	.311	5.6	1	1.6	Marty Cordova
Carson Kelly	.241	.319	.411	89	.170	.277	4.7	2	1.5	Tim DeCinces
David Peralta	.275	.329	.435	97	.160	.326	5.3	3	1.5	Dick Sisler
Wyatt Mathisen	.231	.329	.416	93	.184	.299	4.8	3	1.4	Fran Mullins
Daulton Varsho	.242	.313	.408	86	.166	.295	4.7	-2	1.2	Phil Lombardi
Kevin Cron	.236	.312	.478	102	.242	.289	5.2	2	1.2	Nate Gold
Andy Young	.222	.309	.411	86	.189	.281	4.4	0	1.1	Shaun Larkin
Domingo Leyba	.253	.304	.405	83	.152	.292	4.4	-2	0.9	Matt Franco
Christian Lopes	.239	.319	.378	81	.139	.292	4.3	-2	0.8	Jason Maxwell
Juniel Querecuto	.255	.293	.355	68	.099	.308	3.8	5	0.6	Garry Templeton
Seth Beer	.258	.330	.436	98	.178	.309	5.1	-4	0.6	Daryle Ward
Josh Rojas	.245	.315	.394	84	.148	.298	4.5	3	0.6	Terry Bradshaw
Pavin Smith	.260	.327	.402	89	.142	.298	4.8	1	0.5	Tommy Gregg
Geraldo Perdomo	.222	.313	.315	65	.093	.278	3.3	4	0.5	Nick Punto
Jose Herrera	.197	.277	.290	49	.093	.257	2.7	7	0.2	Matt Morgan
Renae Martinez	.207	.269	.327	55	.120	.268	2.9	5	0.0	Brandon Marsters
Josh VanMeter	.226	.310	.399	83	.173	.280	4.4	-3	0.0	Scott Khoury
Dominic Miroglio	.232	.288	.328	61	.096	.273	3.3	0	-0.1	Angelo Encarnacion
Drew Ellis	.209	.287	.353	66	.144	.279	3.3	2	-0.1	Brad Seitzer
Ben DeLuzio	.223	.285	.321	58	.098	.308	3.2	6	-0.1	Herm Winningham
Jake McCarthy	.228	.287	.331	61	.102	.306	3.6	0	-0.1	Jon Jay
John Hicks	.226	.264	.382	66	.156	.297	3.5	-2	-0.2	Bob Melvin
Gavin Cecchini	.241	.295	.349	67	.107	.288	3.6	-1	-0.2	Eric Rodland
Alek Thomas	.239	.297	.369	73	.131	.310	3.7	-2	-0.2	Tom Dunbar
Ryan Grotjohn	.214	.282	.328	59	.114	.301	2.9	10	-0.2	Johan Limonta
Stephen Vogt	.222	.283	.398	75	.176	.262	4.0	-9	-0.3	Mike Macfarlane
Jancarlos Cintron	.233	.276	.332	58	.099	.265	3.1	1	-0.4	Joey Aragon
Dalton Pompey	.206	.282	.303	53	.096	.291	3.0	1	-0.7	Jason Jackson
Jon Jay	.252	.306	.317	63	.065	.313	3.5	-1	-0.7	Rick Miller
Stuart Fairchild	.213	.288	.329	61	.116	.287	3.1	-2	-0.8	Rashad Eldridge
L.T. Tolbert	.242	.287	.325	60	.083	.288	3.2	-2	-0.8	Marty Wilkerson
Alberto Rosario	.219	.260	.255	36	.036	.277	2.2	-1	-0.9	Ken Huckaby
Camden Duzenack	.191	.254	.337	52	.145	.243	2.8	1	-0.9	Brandon Warriax
Eduardo Diaz	.221	.263	.343	57	.123	.283	3.2	-1	-1.4	Dan Odgers
Trayce Thompson	.187	.241	.350	52	.163	.262	2.8	-6	-1.5	Jeff Barry
Yoel Yanqui	.212	.275	.305	52	.093	.291	2.8	-3	-2.2	Stephen Larkin

Pitchers – Standard

Player	T	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP
Zac Gallen	R	25	12	8	3.74	29	29	163.7	144	68	24	54	193	3.86
Josh Green	R	25	9	8	4.44	23	23	123.7	136	61	14	37	82	4.39
Luke Weaver	R	27	9	8	4.58	25	24	118.0	119	60	20	35	121	4.32
Jon Duplantier	R	26	4	3	4.39	33	22	104.7	97	51	13	55	112	4.43
Merrill Kelly ??	R	32	9	9	4.74	22	22	131.0	136	69	22	41	118	4.62
Madison Bumgarner	L	31	7	7	4.87	26	26	146.0	149	79	31	37	137	4.97
Jeremy Beasley	R	25	7	6	4.61	26	21	109.3	111	56	14	45	91	4.58
Mike Leake	R	33	8	9	4.92	24	24	142.7	168	78	25	22	90	4.79
Cole Stapler	R	26	6	6	4.72	24	21	110.7	117	58	19	25	91	4.61
Jeff Bain	R	25	8	8	4.95	25	25	127.3	133	70	19	54	107	4.90
Riley Smith	R	26	5	5	4.86	24	19	113.0	122	61	18	37	93	4.75
Caleb Smith	L	29	6	6	4.87	23	21	105.3	96	57	19	49	115	4.85
Alex Young	L	27	8	8	5.05	33	21	123.0	127	69	21	48	111	4.91
Kevin McCanna	R	27	6	5	4.63	29	10	81.7	80	42	12	37	81	4.65
Taylor Clarke	R	28	7	7	5.06	28	21	117.3	121	66	20	46	103	4.97
Artie Lewicki	R	29	5	4	4.68	17	12	73.0	80	38	9	24	54	4.41
Bo Takahashi	R	24	8	9	5.22	24	24	112.0	119	65	22	41	97	5.26
Corbin Martin	R	25	4	5	5.03	20	17	82.3	85	46	15	34	77	5.06
Shumpei Yoshikawa	R	26	4	4	4.92	16	15	71.3	75	39	12	27	62	4.93
Taylor Widener	R	26	6	6	5.13	28	21	98.3	94	56	16	51	102	4.96
Junior Guerra	R	36	5	5	4.66	48	7	75.3	70	39	12	37	75	4.85
Stefan Crichton	R	29	4	3	4.16	58	0	71.3	69	33	9	26	68	4.22
David Huff ??	L	36	2	2	4.50	8	6	42.0	48	21	6	8	24	4.61
Matt Peacock	R	27	5	5	5.23	23	18	93.0	102	54	13	43	66	5.16
Rogelio Armenteros	R	27	6	7	5.38	23	20	100.3	107	60	21	43	95	5.44
Hector Rondon	R	33	3	2	4.13	56	1	52.3	50	24	7	18	53	4.04
Kevin Ginkel	R	27	3	3	4.12	52	0	54.7	45	25	8	28	75	4.04
Keury Mella	R	27	7	8	5.35	27	19	106.0	117	63	18	44	80	5.26
J.B. Bukauskas	R	24	3	4	5.36	23	18	94.0	92	56	13	66	87	5.36
Travis Radke	L	28	3	3	4.33	47	0	68.7	70	33	8	24	59	4.20
Humberto Mejia	R	24	3	3	5.26	15	12	65.0	67	38	12	27	55	5.32
James Sherfy	R	29	3	3	4.31	54	0	56.3	50	27	8	26	64	4.30
Aaron Blair	R	29	4	4	5.34	12	12	59.0	63	35	8	35	44	5.38
Taylor Guilbeau	L	28	2	2	4.70	41	3	53.7	55	28	6	24	46	4.43
Miguel Aguilar	L	29	0	0	4.21	35	0	36.3	34	17	5	16	38	4.36
Matt Grace	L	32	2	1	4.56	51	1	53.3	58	27	8	14	40	4.53
Yoan Lopez	R	28	3	3	4.50	57	0	54.0	52	27	8	22	51	4.49
Joe Mantiply	L	30	2	2	4.69	26	2	40.3	41	21	6	14	33	4.59
Michael Tonkin	R	31	3	3	4.42	32	0	38.7	36	19	6	18	43	4.52
Mack Lemieux	L	24	4	5	5.45	30	11	79.3	80	48	13	46	75	5.35
Kyle Crockett	L	29	2	2	4.34	32	0	29.0	31	14	4	9	23	4.42
Sam Moll	L	29	3	3	4.66	43	0	48.3	47	25	6	23	46	4.44
Silvino Bracho	R	28	2	2	4.72	38	0	40.0	37	21	7	15	43	4.66
Junior Garcia	L	25	3	2	4.73	24	0	32.3	29	17	4	19	36	4.51
Justin Vernia	R	25	6	7	5.79	25	20	112.0	130	72	22	46	74	5.83
Eduardo Jimenez	R	26	3	3	4.91	50	0	62.3	66	34	9	26	48	4.91
West Tunnell	R	27	0	0	4.97	41	0	38.0	34	21	5	27	42	5.05
Dillon Overton	L	29	5	7	5.86	24	19	101.3	121	66	22	31	71	5.67
Edwin Jackson	R	37	5	7	5.94	22	17	89.3	101	59	18	40	69	5.70
Mark Leiter Jr.	R	30	3	3	5.13	39	0	47.3	48	27	9	22	47	5.25
Damien Magnifico	R	30	3	3	5.27	47	1	54.7	51	32	7	42	58	5.19
Bradley Roney	R	28	0	0	5.26	30	0	39.3	33	23	6	30	49	5.11
Travis Bergen	L	27	2	2	5.40	36	0	33.3	32	20	5	21	35	5.10
Kyler Stout	R	26	2	2	5.86	23	0	27.7	25	18	4	25	28	5.96
Mauricio Cabrera	R	27	3	4	5.68	45	0	50.7	46	32	7	46	58	5.59

Pitchers – Advanced

Player	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BB%	K%	BABIP	ERA+	ERA-	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Zac Gallen	10.6	3.0	1.3	7.9%	28.1%	.294	123	81	3.6	Danny Cox
Josh Green	6.0	2.7	1.0	6.8%	15.2%	.304	103	97	1.7	Reggie Cleveland
Luke Weaver	9.2	2.7	1.5	6.9%	24.0%	.306	100	100	1.5	Mike Harkey
Jon Duplantier	9.6	4.7	1.1	11.8%	24.0%	.301	105	96	1.5	Joe Decker
Merrill Kelly	8.1	2.8	1.5	7.2%	20.8%	.300	97	103	1.5	Ray Scarborough
Madison Bumgarner	8.4	2.3	1.9	6.0%	22.1%	.289	94	106	1.4	Brian Anderson
Jeremy Beasley	7.5	3.7	1.2	9.3%	18.9%	.298	100	100	1.4	Lew Krausse
Mike Leake	5.7	1.4	1.6	3.6%	14.7%	.304	93	107	1.4	Bob Bruce
Cole Stapler	7.4	2.0	1.5	5.3%	19.3%	.296	97	103	1.3	Dave Eiland
Jeff Bain	7.6	3.8	1.3	9.5%	18.8%	.300	93	108	1.2	Michael LaCoss
Riley Smith	7.4	2.9	1.4	7.5%	18.8%	.304	94	106	1.0	Cha Seung Baek
Caleb Smith	9.8	4.2	1.6	10.7%	25.1%	.284	94	106	1.0	Kent Mercker
Alex Young	8.1	3.5	1.5	8.9%	20.5%	.299	91	110	0.9	Scott Schoeneweis
Kevin McCanna	8.9	4.1	1.3	10.2%	22.4%	.301	99	101	0.8	Earl Harrist
Taylor Clarke	7.9	3.5	1.5	8.9%	19.9%	.295	91	110	0.8	Tommie Sisk
Artie Lewicki	6.7	3.0	1.1	7.5%	16.9%	.309	98	102	0.8	Bob Moose
Bo Takahashi	7.8	3.3	1.8	8.3%	19.6%	.296	88	114	0.7	Shawn Hill
Corbin Martin	8.4	3.7	1.6	9.3%	21.2%	.299	91	110	0.7	Roger McDowell
Shumpei Yoshikawa	7.8	3.4	1.5	8.6%	19.7%	.300	93	107	0.7	Shawn Hill
Taylor Widener	9.3	4.7	1.5	11.6%	23.2%	.295	90	112	0.6	Dick Ruthven
Junior Guerra	9.0	4.4	1.4	11.2%	22.7%	.284	99	101	0.6	Greg Minton
Stefan Crichton	8.6	3.3	1.1	8.4%	22.0%	.299	110	91	0.6	Ernie Johnson
David Huff	5.1	1.7	1.3	4.4%	13.3%	.298	102	98	0.6	Eppa Rixey
Matt Peacock	6.4	4.2	1.3	10.2%	15.6%	.302	88	114	0.6	Steve Arlin
Rogelio Armenteros	8.5	3.9	1.9	9.6%	21.2%	.302	85	117	0.5	Steve Cummings
Hector Rondon	9.1	3.1	1.2	8.1%	23.8%	.301	111	90	0.5	Doug Sisk
Kevin Ginkel	12.3	4.6	1.3	11.8%	31.6%	.301	112	90	0.5	Scott Fredrickson
Keury Mella	6.8	3.7	1.5	9.2%	16.8%	.301	86	117	0.5	Howie Fox
J.B. Bukauskas	8.3	6.3	1.2	15.1%	19.9%	.296	86	117	0.4	Preston Hanna
Travis Radke	7.7	3.1	1.0	8.0%	19.7%	.304	106	94	0.4	Jim Crawford
Humberto Mejia	7.6	3.7	1.7	9.4%	19.1%	.289	87	115	0.4	Aaron Thompson
James Sherfy	10.2	4.2	1.3	10.7%	26.2%	.294	106	94	0.3	Ed Farmer
Aaron Blair	6.7	5.3	1.2	12.8%	16.1%	.301	86	116	0.3	Brian Harrison
Taylor Guilbeau	7.7	4.0	1.0	10.0%	19.2%	.306	98	102	0.3	Gabe Gonzalez
Miguel Aguilar	9.4	4.0	1.2	10.1%	23.9%	.296	109	92	0.3	Tom Burgmeier
Matt Grace	6.8	2.4	1.4	6.1%	17.4%	.301	101	99	0.2	Erasmo Ramirez
Yoan Lopez	8.5	3.7	1.3	9.4%	21.9%	.291	102	98	0.2	Eddie Watt
Joe Mantiply	7.4	3.1	1.3	8.0%	19.0%	.292	98	102	0.2	Mike Venafro
Michael Tonkin	10.0	4.2	1.4	10.6%	25.3%	.297	104	96	0.2	Kevin Gryboski
Mack Lemieux	8.5	5.2	1.5	12.7%	20.7%	.299	84	119	0.2	Juan Agosto
Kyle Crockett	7.1	2.8	1.2	7.1%	18.3%	.303	106	95	0.2	Leo Kiely
Sam Moll	8.6	4.3	1.1	10.7%	21.5%	.299	99	101	0.1	Jim Brewer
Silvino Bracho	9.7	3.4	1.6	8.7%	25.0%	.288	97	103	0.1	Brian Edmondson
Junior Garcia	10.0	5.3	1.1	13.1%	24.8%	.298	97	103	0.0	Aaron Rakers
Justin Vernia	5.9	3.7	1.8	9.0%	14.5%	.299	79	126	0.0	Mark Cahill
Eduardo Jimenez	6.9	3.8	1.3	9.4%	17.3%	.298	94	107	0.0	Scott Munter
West Tunnell	9.9	6.4	1.2	15.3%	23.9%	.293	92	108	0.0	Newt Kimball
Dillon Overton	6.3	2.8	2.0	6.8%	15.7%	.306	78	128	0.0	Jeff Ballard
Edwin Jackson	7.0	4.0	1.8	9.9%	17.0%	.302	77	129	-0.1	Vern Kennedy
Mark Leiter Jr.	8.9	4.2	1.7	10.4%	22.2%	.298	89	112	-0.1	Weston Weber
Damien Magnifico	9.5	6.9	1.2	16.4%	22.7%	.301	87	115	-0.2	Jerry Johnson
Bradley Roney	11.2	6.9	1.4	16.6%	27.1%	.287	87	115	-0.2	Marc Pisciotta
Travis Bergen	9.5	5.7	1.4	13.7%	22.9%	.300	85	118	-0.2	Tom Thurberg
Kyler Stout	9.1	8.1	1.3	18.8%	21.1%	.284	78	128	-0.3	Paul Giel
Mauricio Cabrera	10.3	8.2	1.2	18.9%	23.8%	.300	81	124	-0.4	Ken Wright

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.

The Current State of 2021 Team Payrolls

Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.