2021 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres

November 19, 2020

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres.

ZiPS Projections

20212020

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Batters

Not that there was any real chance that his 2019 debut was a fluke, but Fernando Tatis Jr. kept it going in 2020, proving very deserving of his place in the NL MVP voting. Tatis is probably the most likely of the game’s young starts to pull a Mike Trout and make the Padres’ 90-win challenge simply one of building a .500 team around him. And so far, they’ve more than done that! Tatis finally got his middle infield partner, which rather than being Luis Urias, came in the form of Jake Cronenworth, seemingly the umpteenth high minors second baseman with power developed by the Rays in the last decade. Cronenworth’s 2019 minor league breakout looked quite real once he reached the bigs.

Eric Hosmer‘s projection is hardly exciting — he’s likely the worst player in the lineup unless the NL retains the DH in 2021 — but his increased loft and resulting success over the short season was enough to bump up his win projection by more than a win since last winter. It still remains to be seen if the increased loft will continues — he’s had spikes before and his groundball percentage steadily increased over the course of 2020 — but there’s certainly more reason for optimism than before that his deal will avoid landing on a list of baseball’s most notorious signings and instead be merely a run-of-the-mill bad idea.

Manny Machado‘s season was encouraging, with his .950 OPS the best mark of his career. This is a particularly good sign after a relatively weak first year in San Diego. His .256/.334/.462 2019 line could hardly be described as a debacle, but it wasn’t the kind of performance the Padres had in mind when they gave him the richest contract in team history. If you’re disappointed that his top comp is “only” Sal Bando, I’d recommend you go do some Sal Bando research! Don’t worry, I’ll wait. That’s kind of how text works.

Pitchers

The Padres have a few really fun top comps that I rarely get in ZiPS. Tatis received Alex Rodriguez and MacKenzie Gore got the ultra-rare Steve Carlton comp (it was number two for him last year). My favorite, however, is the comp for Dinelson Lamet, one of my breakout candidates in 2020 who worked out (let’s not talk about Adrian Houser). There’s an annual ZiPS tradition of some middling veteran reliever getting a Bob Gibson comp, forcing me to remind people that there’s another Bob Gibson. It has happened enough that I’ve even changed his name in my database to Not That Bob Gibson, the companion to Other Frank Thomas and I Don’t Know Which Jeff Robinson This Is. Lamet, one of the other hand, got the Bob Gibson, which I do not believe has happened before. Now, it’s Bob Gibson before he had his huge breakout, but I’ll still take it!

Losing Mike Clevinger for the 2021 season is a huge blow, as he was projected as the best starter in the rotation, but it’s not a crippling one. There are still plenty of options, with upside in Gore and Lamet as well as Chris Paddack and Luis Patino, plus a couple of returning innings-eaters in Zach Davies and Joey Lucchesi to limit the risk. I still think the Padres should add another starter for depth, but it’s not absolutely necessary.

Similarly, moving on from Kirby Yates isn’t ideal, but Austin Adams has long been a favorite of ZiPS and was a sneaky good pickup in the Austin Nola trade while recovering from ACL surgery. He’ll likely be on the team long after Nola and Dan Altavilla have moved on. Adams’ bread-and-butter isn’t a splitter like Yates throws but a nasty slider he learned to throw reliably in 2019. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as the closer eventually and go down as yet another in the Nationals puzzling list of relievers they gave up on for nothing.

One pedantic note for 2021: For the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	R	22	SS	524	461	89	131	22	6	28	94	52	136	24	8
Manny Machado	R	28	3B	650	582	84	158	29	2	33	116	60	110	11	5
Trent Grisham	L	24	RF	598	508	82	122	21	7	21	73	79	142	16	4
Jake Cronenworth	L	27	SS	500	449	61	118	24	5	8	48	43	87	11	4
Tommy Pham	R	33	LF	531	461	71	119	21	2	16	60	63	115	22	5
Jurickson Profar	B	28	2B	518	460	68	117	24	2	16	67	45	77	10	1
Wil Myers	R	30	LF	511	458	65	114	25	3	25	84	48	149	12	4
Austin Nola	R	31	C	430	378	49	93	19	2	10	54	41	86	2	1
Luis Campusano	R	22	C	455	410	54	101	22	2	10	62	36	75	0	0
Eric Hosmer	L	31	1B	581	533	67	139	24	1	20	98	43	127	6	2
Nick Tanielu	R	28	3B	498	463	55	115	27	2	13	60	28	89	3	3
Mitch Moreland	L	35	1B	377	335	48	77	16	1	17	61	37	89	0	0
Francisco Mejia	B	25	C	398	366	43	84	18	2	11	43	20	85	1	1
Greg Garcia	L	31	2B	293	248	30	57	10	2	3	28	35	65	2	1
Ivan Castillo	B	26	2B	466	437	44	109	21	5	5	41	18	76	9	6
Jason Castro	L	34	C	287	252	29	48	14	0	8	29	32	102	0	0
Yonder Alonso	L	34	1B	411	363	45	83	15	0	15	57	44	94	1	1
Yohel Pozo	R	24	C	415	394	37	89	19	1	7	38	14	55	2	1
Greg Allen	B	28	RF	415	369	47	82	16	3	6	38	25	98	20	5
Jorge Mateo	R	26	SS	477	448	49	96	20	9	10	51	22	154	19	8
Robbie Podorsky	R	26	LF	213	193	19	46	5	2	1	14	12	28	11	4
Mat Batten	R	26	2B	386	347	39	77	12	3	4	31	32	101	8	5
Eguy Rosario	R	21	3B	552	512	54	113	23	5	11	60	32	145	15	12
Gosuke Katoh	L	26	2B	457	404	46	81	16	2	9	37	48	145	10	6
Taylor Kohlwey	L	26	LF	361	318	35	65	11	3	5	30	32	108	6	4
Tyler Benson	L	25	LF	153	136	13	25	5	1	1	9	15	51	7	1
Sean Guilbe	R	21	3B	252	231	28	40	10	2	8	29	17	104	5	1
Jorge Ona	R	24	LF	356	320	38	65	13	1	9	38	28	124	1	3
Esteury Ruiz	R	22	2B	420	387	38	78	16	3	7	37	22	130	29	14
Jose Azocar	R	25	RF	509	487	43	106	14	4	6	43	13	158	8	4

Batters – Advanced

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	ISO	BABIP	RC/27	Def	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Fernando Tatis Jr.	.284	.365	.540	142	.256	.347	7.6	-2	5.1	Alex Rodriguez
Manny Machado	.271	.338	.498	124	.227	.285	6.3	3	4.6	Sal Bando
Trent Grisham	.240	.346	.433	111	.193	.293	5.5	6	3.1	Bobby Abreu
Jake Cronenworth	.263	.332	.392	97	.129	.311	4.8	2	2.5	Stan Hack
Tommy Pham	.258	.352	.416	109	.158	.312	5.6	1	2.5	Gary Matthews
Jurickson Profar	.254	.331	.420	103	.165	.275	5.2	-2	2.3	Quilvio Veras
Wil Myers	.249	.323	.480	115	.231	.313	5.7	-1	2.2	Bob Bailey
Austin Nola	.246	.326	.386	93	.140	.294	4.5	-1	1.6	Bob Boone
Luis Campusano	.246	.310	.383	88	.137	.280	4.3	-2	1.3	George Kottaras
Eric Hosmer	.261	.317	.422	99	.161	.308	4.9	0	1.2	Mike Hargrove
Nick Tanielu	.248	.294	.400	87	.151	.283	4.1	2	1.1	Paul Schaal
Mitch Moreland	.230	.308	.436	99	.206	.262	4.7	2	0.9	Don Mincher
Francisco Mejia	.230	.280	.380	77	.150	.270	3.7	1	0.8	Gregg Zaun
Greg Garcia	.230	.332	.323	80	.093	.300	3.8	0	0.6	Chuck Hiller
Ivan Castillo	.249	.284	.355	73	.105	.292	3.6	4	0.5	Bryan Little
Jason Castro	.190	.286	.341	70	.151	.282	3.3	1	0.5	Duke Sims
Yonder Alonso	.229	.314	.394	91	.165	.268	4.3	-1	0.3	Boog Powell
Yohel Pozo	.226	.255	.332	59	.107	.247	3.0	5	0.2	Jon Sprowl
Greg Allen	.222	.294	.331	70	.108	.287	3.7	4	0.1	Jason McDonald
Jorge Mateo	.214	.255	.366	66	.152	.303	3.3	1	0.1	Cesar Crespo
Robbie Podorsky	.238	.295	.301	63	.062	.274	3.3	1	-0.3	Jeff Bonner
Mat Batten	.222	.292	.308	64	.086	.302	3.1	-1	-0.4	Stu Cole
Eguy Rosario	.221	.269	.350	67	.129	.287	3.1	1	-0.4	Rich Paz
Gosuke Katoh	.200	.288	.317	65	.116	.288	3.0	-2	-0.4	Rance Mulliniks
Taylor Kohlwey	.204	.290	.305	63	.101	.293	2.9	2	-0.5	Josh Alley
Tyler Benson	.184	.268	.257	45	.074	.286	2.6	0	-0.6	Michael Massaro
Sean Guilbe	.173	.238	.338	54	.165	.269	2.8	-1	-0.6	Pat Osborn
Jorge Ona	.203	.278	.334	66	.131	.299	3.0	-3	-1.1	Jeff Goodale
Esteury Ruiz	.202	.252	.313	53	.111	.284	2.7	-10	-1.8	Mica Lewis
Jose Azocar	.218	.240	.300	46	.082	.310	2.5	-2	-2.6	Luis Mercedes

Pitchers – Standard

Player	T	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP
Mike Clevinger	R	30	11	6	3.35	26	25	137.0	109	51	15	52	152	3.59
Chris Paddack	R	25	12	8	3.90	30	30	157.0	143	68	25	36	166	3.98
Dinelson Lamet	R	28	9	5	3.61	24	24	124.7	98	50	15	52	162	3.57
Zach Davies	R	28	11	8	4.17	29	29	153.3	155	71	21	47	112	4.52
Joey Lucchesi	L	28	8	6	4.11	23	23	116.0	110	53	16	40	113	4.16
MacKenzie Gore	L	22	7	5	4.07	21	21	97.3	87	44	13	41	109	4.13
Matt Strahm	L	29	7	5	4.01	44	10	83.0	78	37	12	24	83	4.14
Jesse Scholtens	R	27	7	6	4.70	24	21	120.7	126	63	17	44	98	4.66
Adrian Morejon	L	22	5	3	3.83	24	17	56.3	51	24	7	23	67	3.75
Craig Stammen	R	37	6	3	3.43	57	1	63.0	59	24	6	14	57	3.37
Garrett Richards	R	33	4	3	4.22	18	14	70.3	65	33	10	25	71	4.12
Pedro Avila	R	24	5	5	4.52	18	15	87.7	85	44	10	47	80	4.69
Kirby Yates	R	34	4	2	2.98	44	0	42.3	31	14	6	14	65	3.16
Emilio Pagan	R	30	4	2	3.62	61	1	64.7	54	26	10	18	77	3.74
Caleb Boushley	R	27	4	4	4.45	27	9	89.0	95	44	13	23	67	4.55
Luis Patino	R	21	7	6	4.46	26	16	84.7	78	42	10	49	87	4.57
Austin Adams	R	30	4	2	3.05	37	0	41.3	27	14	4	26	66	3.28
Jose Castillo	L	25	4	2	3.53	61	0	63.7	49	25	8	26	84	3.59
Drew Pomeranz	L	32	4	2	3.66	65	0	59.0	47	24	7	32	80	3.74
Tim Hill	L	31	3	2	3.63	61	0	57.0	52	23	5	20	53	3.72
Pierce Johnson	R	30	4	3	3.70	60	0	56.0	47	23	6	23	65	3.54
Luis Perdomo	R	28	3	2	4.26	51	1	69.7	67	33	9	28	60	4.47
Taylor Williams	R	29	3	3	4.26	50	1	57.0	53	27	7	28	60	4.30
Michel Baez	R	25	3	2	4.17	40	1	49.7	44	23	5	27	54	4.13
David Bednar	R	26	4	3	4.12	47	0	59.0	51	27	7	28	68	3.99
Brady Feigl	L	30	3	2	4.17	31	1	41.0	42	19	4	13	30	4.08
Emmanuel Ramirez	R	26	6	7	5.22	25	18	110.3	117	64	19	51	92	5.30
Steven Wilson	R	26	3	3	4.33	44	0	60.3	53	29	8	33	71	4.34
Trey Wingenter	R	27	3	3	4.42	57	1	55.0	43	27	8	33	77	4.29
Parker Markel	R	30	3	2	4.35	48	0	60.0	49	29	8	38	79	4.38
Trevor Rosenthal	R	31	2	1	4.31	44	0	39.7	30	19	4	33	56	4.47
Daniel Camarena	L	28	6	7	5.16	20	8	106.3	114	61	19	35	83	5.07
Mason Fox	R	24	1	1	4.30	19	0	23.0	18	11	3	18	31	4.66
Miguel Diaz	R	26	3	3	5.12	28	9	63.3	60	36	10	38	67	5.06
Dan Altavilla	R	28	5	4	4.44	52	0	50.7	42	25	7	32	61	4.58
Javy Guerra	R	25	2	1	4.55	62	0	61.3	60	31	8	23	51	4.39
Chase Johnson	R	29	3	3	5.13	31	7	66.7	69	38	8	40	49	5.25
Reggie Lawson	R	23	4	4	5.55	15	14	71.3	73	44	12	45	66	5.58
Evan Miller	R	26	4	3	4.70	45	0	59.3	58	31	8	26	51	4.73
Fred Schlichtholz	L	25	0	0	4.89	34	0	49.7	49	27	6	33	45	5.11
Chih-Wei Hu	R	27	5	6	5.56	26	14	87.3	98	54	18	33	62	5.71
Aaron Leasher	L	25	6	7	5.67	23	18	106.3	114	67	17	57	81	5.51
Cody Tyler	L	26	3	3	5.00	37	0	63.0	68	35	11	23	49	5.13
Dauris Valdez	R	25	2	2	5.17	48	0	55.7	51	32	8	41	61	5.23
Kyle McGrath	L	28	3	4	5.88	36	4	56.7	64	37	13	20	41	5.88
Franklin van Gurp	R	25	4	4	5.68	41	0	63.3	61	40	9	55	65	5.77
Lake Bachar	R	26	4	7	6.23	23	18	104.0	114	72	23	64	88	6.38

Pitchers – Advanced

Player	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BB%	K%	BABIP	ERA+	ERA-	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Mike Clevinger	10.0	3.4	1.0	9.2%	26.9%	.273	127	79	3.2	Ken Hill
Chris Paddack	9.5	2.1	1.4	5.6%	25.6%	.286	109	92	2.7	Lary Sorensen
Dinelson Lamet	11.7	3.8	1.1	9.9%	30.9%	.288	118	85	2.6	Bob Gibson
Zach Davies	6.6	2.8	1.2	7.2%	17.1%	.285	102	98	2.2	Bob Porterfield
Joey Lucchesi	8.8	3.1	1.2	8.1%	22.9%	.293	103	97	1.8	Zane Smith
MacKenzie Gore	10.1	3.8	1.2	9.8%	26.0%	.295	104	96	1.5	Steve Carlton
Matt Strahm	9.0	2.6	1.3	6.8%	23.6%	.292	106	95	1.1	Al Aber
Jesse Scholtens	7.3	3.3	1.3	8.3%	18.5%	.299	90	111	1.0	Mike LaCoss
Adrian Morejon	10.7	3.7	1.1	9.5%	27.7%	.308	111	90	0.9	Manny Parra
Craig Stammen	8.1	2.0	0.9	5.4%	21.9%	.293	124	81	0.9	Paul Quantrill
Garrett Richards	9.1	3.2	1.3	8.4%	23.9%	.289	100	100	0.9	Spud Chandler
Pedro Avila	8.2	4.8	1.0	11.9%	20.2%	.298	94	106	0.9	Preston Hanna
Kirby Yates	13.8	3.0	1.3	8.1%	37.6%	.294	143	70	0.8	Jay Howell
Emilio Pagan	10.7	2.5	1.4	6.8%	29.2%	.280	117	85	0.8	Jose Jimenez
Caleb Boushley	6.8	2.3	1.3	6.0%	17.4%	.298	95	105	0.8	Bill Fischer
Luis Patino	9.2	5.2	1.1	12.9%	22.9%	.297	95	105	0.8	J.R. Richard
Austin Adams	14.4	5.7	0.9	14.7%	37.3%	.291	139	72	0.8	Jim Kern
Jose Castillo	11.9	3.7	1.1	9.8%	31.6%	.285	120	83	0.7	Scott Radinsky
Drew Pomeranz	12.2	4.9	1.1	12.5%	31.4%	.299	116	86	0.7	Scott Sauerbeck
Tim Hill	8.4	3.2	0.8	8.2%	21.8%	.292	117	86	0.6	Dave Tomlin
Pierce Johnson	10.4	3.7	1.0	9.8%	27.7%	.293	115	87	0.5	Todd Williams
Luis Perdomo	7.8	3.6	1.2	9.3%	19.9%	.287	100	100	0.3	Steve Swetonic
Taylor Williams	9.5	4.4	1.1	11.2%	23.9%	.301	100	100	0.2	Mike Bumstead
Michel Baez	9.8	4.9	0.9	12.3%	24.5%	.298	102	98	0.2	Joe Hudson
David Bednar	10.4	4.3	1.1	11.0%	26.7%	.295	103	97	0.2	Jose Rodriguez
Brady Feigl	6.6	2.9	0.9	7.3%	16.9%	.297	102	98	0.2	Dave Tomlin
Emmanuel Ramirez	7.5	4.2	1.5	10.3%	18.5%	.298	81	123	0.2	Sean White
Steven Wilson	10.6	4.9	1.2	12.4%	26.7%	.298	98	102	0.1	Mike Schultz
Trey Wingenter	12.6	5.4	1.3	13.6%	31.8%	.292	96	104	0.1	Calvin Jones
Parker Markel	11.9	5.7	1.2	14.2%	29.5%	.295	98	103	0.1	Colter Bean
Trevor Rosenthal	12.7	7.5	0.9	17.9%	30.4%	.299	98	102	0.1	Bart Miadich
Daniel Camarena	7.0	3.0	1.6	7.5%	17.8%	.294	82	122	0.1	Lee Guetterman
Mason Fox	12.1	7.0	1.2	17.1%	29.5%	.288	99	101	0.1	Clay Bryant
Miguel Diaz	9.5	5.4	1.4	13.2%	23.3%	.296	83	121	0.0	Brett Merriman
Dan Altavilla	10.8	5.7	1.2	14.2%	27.1%	.285	96	105	0.0	George Smith
Javy Guerra	7.5	3.4	1.2	8.7%	19.4%	.289	93	107	0.0	Bob Miller
Chase Johnson	6.6	5.4	1.1	13.0%	15.9%	.295	83	121	0.0	Claude Willoughby
Reggie Lawson	8.3	5.7	1.5	13.6%	19.9%	.299	76	131	-0.1	Jake Joseph
Evan Miller	7.7	3.9	1.2	9.9%	19.5%	.289	90	111	-0.1	Scott Munter
Fred Schlichtholz	8.2	6.0	1.1	14.3%	19.6%	.301	87	115	-0.2	Philip Barzilla
Chih-Wei Hu	6.4	3.4	1.9	8.5%	15.9%	.293	76	131	-0.3	Tony Peguero
Aaron Leasher	6.9	4.8	1.4	11.7%	16.6%	.297	75	134	-0.4	Mike Wodnicki
Cody Tyler	7.0	3.3	1.6	8.3%	17.6%	.297	85	118	-0.4	Tanyon Sturtze
Dauris Valdez	9.9	6.6	1.3	15.9%	23.6%	.297	82	122	-0.4	Marc Pisciotta
Kyle McGrath	6.5	3.2	2.1	7.9%	16.3%	.290	72	138	-0.7	Corey Hamman
Franklin van Gurp	9.2	7.8	1.3	18.0%	21.2%	.301	75	134	-0.9	Lloyd Allen
Lake Bachar	7.6	5.5	2.0	13.1%	18.0%	.296	68	147	-1.0	Mark Woodyard

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.

Jeff Mathis Can’t Catch a Break

Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.