2021 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Dodgers

November 20, 2020

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

ZiPS Projections

20212020

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Batters

Some years, the World Series champion is clearly not the best team in baseball; instead, it’s a club that, through a combination of luck and timing, goes on an October run en route to the Commissioner’s Trophy. That was not the case in 2021. The Dodgers played in the same division as the National League’s second-best team this season, the Padres, and still bested them by six games, a 16-win pace per 162 games. Even with surprising down years (relatively speaking) from Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy, this lineup pummeled opposing pitchers from pole-to-pole, scoring nearly six runs a game and setting a franchise-high wRC+ at 122. Sure, it’s different to do that over 60 games than 154 or 162, but it’s still an impressive feat for a club with such a long history and deep roster of Hall of Famers.

With only one championship available per season, aggressively trying to win isn’t always met with a proportional reward. In this instance, the Dodgers went all-out to rent the services of Mookie Betts, with no guarantee he’d re-sign with them, and then inked him to a long-term deal with one of the richest payouts in major league history in the middle of a global pandemic and corresponding economic meltdown. Betts was as good as advertised — just one Freddie Freeman away from an MVP trophy — and the Dodgers earned a championship. Score one for positive incentives!

The team’s to-do list on the offense is relatively small this winter. Replacing Justin Turner is a priority — bringing him back for a year or two strikes me as the best mutual opportunity — but with a championship already in the bag and the team so strong elsewhere, the Dodgers may not feel compelled to be aggressive as they would have been in a similar situation a year ago. In extremely limited big league time, Gavin Lux hasn’t been great so far, but he remains a top prospect, he’s still very young, and this organization isn’t known for panicking when it comes to its best prospects.

One more item on the to-do list is probably another spare outfielder who can share some time with AJ Pollock. There’s role player depth on the squad as well, but Enrique Hernandez, who was a great player to have around because he could play just about everywhere, is a free agent. Chris Taylor remains a Dodger, but the team already looks like they’ll use him plenty (and he’s a free agent after 2021).

Next up: winning a second consecutive championship, something that hasn’t been done since the 1999-2000 Yankees, and figuring out how to keep Corey Seager and Clayton Kershaw past 2021, all of which is very plausible!

Pitchers

Is Clayton Kershaw actually underrated now? He’s likely past his 2013-2017 peak for good, but he’s still putting up numbers well into ace territory and his 3.03 ERA in 2019 remains his “worst” year since his debut. 2020 cost Kershaw any chance of collecting win number 200 in 2021, but ZiPS still projects him to finish at 261 for his career, a projection that already contains information about his decline in velocity. The projections also have him finishing 13th all-time in WAR for pitchers, nestling him between Christy Mathewson and Lefty Grove, two pitchers who are rumored to have been solid.

One of the biggest boosts to Julio Urias’ projection came from his postseason performance, which ZiPS includes. Twenty-nine strikeouts against just four walks on baseball’s biggest stage was enough to knock a pretty good chunk out of his 2021-projected ERA.

Kenley Jansen‘s not done or anything, but there were some definite warning signings late in the season and in the playoffs, and there’s been a distinct drop-off in his top comp, which has typically been Mariano Rivera (not to take anything away from Mike Timlin). Of the team’s core players over the last several seasons, Jansen is probably the one Los Angeles is most willing to part ways with.

I don’t expect the Dodgers to go after Trevor Bauer to fatten up the rotation, but I’d be surprised if they don’t add a veteran No. 3 or 4 starter who can eat some innings and play a similar role in next year’s playoffs. Manager Dave Roberts did a better job managing the bullpen than in the 2019 playoffs, but the team did occasionally seem stretched more than is ideal when Walker Buehler started having blister issues and Tony Gonsolin struggled in a few playoff games. It’s a team that can’t resist a good reclamation project, so seeing someone like Chris Archer on the roster wouldn’t shock me.

One pedantic note for 2021: For the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Mookie Betts	R	28	RF	654	569	117	163	36	3	32	98	75	100	24	4
Cody Bellinger	L	25	CF	648	561	99	153	29	5	38	123	82	137	17	3
Corey Seager	L	27	SS	569	512	87	147	33	2	27	109	49	107	4	0
Will Smith	R	26	C	434	374	61	90	20	1	23	83	48	109	2	0
Max Muncy	L	30	1B	535	442	82	107	18	1	29	99	84	139	4	1
Gavin Lux	L	23	SS	556	507	76	126	23	7	24	89	46	132	9	5
Justin Turner	R	36	3B	454	395	61	110	23	1	15	59	42	72	2	0
Chris Taylor	R	30	SS	528	471	71	120	28	5	18	74	48	146	10	4
Joc Pederson	L	29	LF	437	385	64	93	19	2	24	73	41	98	2	2
AJ Pollock	R	33	LF	424	389	58	100	20	2	22	69	26	94	8	3
Keibert Ruiz	B	22	C	398	370	43	95	13	0	12	43	22	45	0	0
Austin Barnes	R	31	C	325	278	40	63	12	1	6	35	37	73	5	2
Edwin Rios	L	27	3B	429	391	53	89	20	1	24	76	27	153	0	1
Enrique Hernandez	R	29	2B	436	393	58	93	21	3	16	67	34	93	3	1
Matt Beaty	L	28	1B	365	336	44	86	20	1	10	50	21	61	3	1
Anthony Garcia	R	29	LF	433	388	51	93	19	1	16	63	34	98	3	3
Miguel Vargas	R	21	3B	491	450	51	109	25	3	8	49	32	101	9	4
Clayton Daniel	R	26	2B	262	238	26	57	9	2	2	21	20	36	2	3
Jacob Amaya	R	22	SS	561	502	59	109	24	5	9	54	51	129	5	9
Zach McKinstry	L	26	2B	407	372	43	84	16	4	10	43	29	113	4	5
Connor Joe	R	28	1B	448	390	52	86	19	2	12	52	48	110	1	3
Luke Raley	L	26	RF	482	442	57	100	15	5	16	60	23	156	5	1
Russell Martin	R	38	C	266	226	27	45	5	0	5	24	32	70	1	1
DJ Peters	R	25	CF	552	491	61	92	17	3	22	73	44	237	2	2
Andrew Toles	R	29	LF	283	268	33	66	14	1	6	35	12	63	5	3
Devin Mann	R	24	2B	390	351	42	77	15	1	11	44	32	105	5	6
Dillon Paulson	L	24	1B	433	382	46	71	20	3	13	51	45	142	2	1
Rocky Gale	R	33	C	307	289	25	62	10	1	3	25	11	65	1	1
Zach Reks	L	27	LF	461	415	54	95	15	2	15	59	40	147	3	3
Omar Estevez	R	23	2B	495	457	48	101	28	1	11	53	30	135	1	2
Errol Robinson	R	26	SS	447	411	44	89	14	2	7	37	32	122	13	7
Luke Heyer	R	24	3B	375	345	35	62	12	1	11	40	23	138	4	3
Drew Avans	L	25	LF	426	390	44	83	12	4	11	44	29	134	20	10
Cody Thomas	L	26	RF	529	488	55	94	18	5	18	69	33	206	4	4
Nick Yarnall	L	26	1B	246	222	26	41	8	1	8	28	23	97	2	2
Terrance Gore	R	30	CF	214	192	22	36	4	2	0	9	16	59	21	6
Carlos Rincon	R	23	RF	485	445	53	88	21	1	20	65	34	170	3	2
Matt Lipka	R	29	CF	378	346	33	67	13	3	5	30	21	105	13	7
Jeren Kendall	L	25	CF	469	426	44	66	11	7	15	53	37	213	18	11
Donovan Casey	R	25	RF	493	460	53	93	15	4	16	60	28	188	12	3
Marcus Chiu	R	24	1B	377	334	37	56	11	2	11	36	26	156	6	3
Starling Heredia	R	22	LF	389	356	36	58	13	4	10	37	29	172	10	8

Batters – Advanced

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	ISO	BABIP	RC/27	Def	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Mookie Betts	.286	.370	.529	138	.243	.300	7.7	15	6.5	Frank Robinson
Cody Bellinger	.273	.366	.545	141	.273	.298	7.6	2	6.0	Grady Sizemore
Corey Seager	.287	.351	.518	130	.230	.317	7.0	3	5.0	Arky Vaughan
Will Smith	.241	.334	.484	117	.243	.277	5.8	3	3.3	Josh Willingham
Max Muncy	.242	.368	.484	127	.242	.285	6.4	0	3.1	Carlos Pena
Gavin Lux	.249	.311	.464	105	.215	.291	5.2	0	2.8	Dick McAuliffe
Justin Turner	.278	.363	.456	119	.177	.308	6.3	-2	2.7	Bob Elliott
Chris Taylor	.255	.328	.450	107	.195	.332	5.4	-4	2.4	Jeff Blauser
Joc Pederson	.242	.327	.488	116	.247	.262	5.6	1	2.0	John Milner
AJ Pollock	.257	.309	.488	110	.231	.286	5.5	1	1.6	Merv Rettenmund
Keibert Ruiz	.257	.304	.389	85	.132	.265	4.3	1	1.2	Yadier Molina
Austin Barnes	.227	.329	.342	82	.115	.286	4.0	3	1.2	Mike Fitzgerald
Edwin Rios	.228	.284	.468	98	.240	.304	4.6	-4	0.9	Wayne Garrett
Enrique Hernandez	.237	.301	.427	93	.191	.271	4.6	-4	0.9	Kelly Heath
Matt Beaty	.256	.312	.411	93	.155	.287	4.7	0	0.5	Pete LaCock
Anthony Garcia	.240	.309	.418	94	.178	.281	4.5	-2	0.4	Keith Mitchell
Miguel Vargas	.242	.296	.364	77	.122	.296	3.9	0	0.4	Sean Burroughs
Clayton Daniel	.239	.300	.319	68	.080	.275	3.2	3	0.3	Greg Picart
Jacob Amaya	.217	.291	.339	69	.122	.275	3.1	1	0.2	Pee Wee Reese
Zach McKinstry	.226	.288	.371	76	.145	.297	3.6	-1	0.2	Rance Mulliniks
Connor Joe	.221	.313	.372	84	.151	.276	3.9	1	0.2	Todd Betts
Luke Raley	.226	.284	.391	80	.165	.311	4.0	2	0.1	Larry Whisenton
Russell Martin	.199	.316	.288	65	.088	.265	3.0	-2	0.0	Rick Cerone
DJ Peters	.187	.272	.369	70	.181	.302	3.3	-2	-0.1	Steve Moss
Andrew Toles	.246	.283	.373	75	.127	.302	3.7	1	-0.1	Mike Colangelo
Devin Mann	.219	.290	.362	74	.142	.281	3.4	-4	-0.3	Drew Sutton
Dillon Paulson	.186	.273	.356	68	.170	.256	3.2	5	-0.3	Bo Dodson
Rocky Gale	.215	.246	.287	43	.073	.267	2.4	5	-0.3	Joe Astroth
Zach Reks	.229	.302	.383	83	.154	.316	4.0	-5	-0.4	John Kruk
Omar Estevez	.221	.267	.359	67	.138	.289	3.3	-2	-0.4	Armando Moreno
Errol Robinson	.217	.275	.311	58	.095	.291	2.9	-2	-0.6	Brian Grebeck
Luke Heyer	.180	.240	.316	48	.136	.260	2.4	5	-0.6	Christian Snavely
Drew Avans	.213	.269	.349	65	.136	.294	3.2	-1	-1.0	Adam Greenberg
Cody Thomas	.193	.250	.361	62	.168	.288	2.9	4	-1.0	Warren Newson ??
Nick Yarnall	.185	.260	.338	60	.153	.282	2.8	-3	-1.1	Josh Alley
Terrance Gore	.188	.257	.229	33	.042	.271	2.4	-4	-1.2	Lance Blankenship
Carlos Rincon	.198	.262	.384	71	.187	.267	3.4	-6	-1.2	Jayson Werth
Matt Lipka	.194	.246	.292	44	.098	.263	2.4	1	-1.2	Lance Blankenship
Jeren Kendall	.155	.224	.319	44	.164	.258	2.2	4	-1.3	Adam Greenberg
Donovan Casey	.202	.249	.357	61	.154	.301	3.1	-1	-1.4	Nick Capra
Marcus Chiu	.168	.258	.311	53	.144	.269	2.6	-3	-1.6	Blake Bone
Starling Heredia	.163	.231	.306	43	.143	.276	2.1	-12	-3.2	Sheldon Fulse

Pitchers – Standard

Player	T	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP
Walker Buehler	R	26	10	4	3.11	27	27	150.3	118	52	19	39	189	3.21
Clayton Kershaw	L	33	13	6	3.21	26	26	154.3	131	55	22	29	167	3.45
Dustin May	R	23	10	6	3.87	39	28	151.3	143	65	21	39	144	4.03
Julio Urias	L	24	7	4	3.64	45	16	118.7	101	48	17	39	134	3.90
Alex Wood	L	30	7	4	3.75	24	17	98.3	92	41	13	25	95	3.88
Victor Gonzalez	L	25	5	3	3.79	49	13	95.0	89	40	10	35	88	3.99
David Price	L	35	7	4	4.04	17	16	89.0	85	40	15	26	88	4.40
Jimmy Nelson	R	32	6	4	4.17	21	14	90.7	87	42	13	37	95	4.37
Blake Treinen	R	33	7	3	3.30	60	0	62.7	55	23	5	22	62	3.39
Caleb Ferguson	L	24	4	2	3.52	57	4	64.0	51	25	8	28	87	3.68
Josiah Gray	R	23	7	6	4.82	28	27	125.0	126	67	23	35	108	4.83
Tony Gonsolin	R	27	6	5	4.72	26	22	101.0	96	53	19	41	103	4.95
Brusdar Graterol	R	22	5	2	3.35	60	2	53.7	50	20	4	17	46	3.55
Mitch White	R	26	5	4	4.42	20	17	79.3	76	39	12	30	80	4.42
Edwin Uceta	R	23	7	6	4.94	26	25	118.3	118	65	22	52	116	5.13
Kenley Jansen	R	33	4	2	3.72	60	0	58.0	48	24	9	18	72	3.80
Dennis Santana	R	25	6	5	4.76	29	13	87.0	82	46	15	40	95	4.82
Adam Kolarek	L	32	5	3	3.61	59	0	52.3	51	21	4	15	39	3.72
Andre Jackson	R	25	4	4	4.91	20	20	80.7	75	44	9	58	78	5.04
Shea Spitzbarth	R	26	4	3	3.93	50	0	68.7	60	30	10	28	81	4.07
Joe Kelly	R	33	3	2	3.80	49	1	45.0	39	19	4	22	49	3.76
Dylan Floro	R	30	4	2	3.92	53	0	57.3	58	25	6	16	46	3.88
Zach McAllister	R	33	2	1	3.67	36	0	41.7	39	17	6	11	43	3.85
Scott Alexander	L	31	4	2	3.91	51	0	48.3	46	21	4	21	39	4.01
Kyle Lobstein	L	31	6	5	4.81	32	9	76.7	76	41	11	35	66	4.85
Pedro Baez	R	33	4	2	4.05	58	0	53.3	45	24	8	21	59	4.21
Marshall Kasowski	R	26	3	2	4.02	36	1	40.3	28	18	4	33	61	4.05
Parker Curry	R	27	5	5	5.07	28	11	87.0	93	49	18	28	76	5.26
Josh Sborz	R	27	3	2	4.09	47	0	50.7	45	23	7	19	56	4.01
Jake McGee	L	34	3	2	4.17	51	0	45.3	42	21	8	13	51	4.22
Edubray Ramos	R	28	4	3	4.35	55	1	49.7	48	24	8	18	50	4.41
Austin Hamilton	L	27	5	5	5.07	22	8	65.7	71	37	11	27	49	5.28
Yadier Alvarez	R	25	2	2	5.15	17	9	43.7	38	25	6	36	53	5.15
Logan Salow	L	26	3	3	4.74	43	2	57.0	49	30	7	42	67	4.79
Reymin Guduan	L	29	4	3	4.62	42	0	48.7	45	25	7	27	52	4.70
Luis Vasquez	R	35	2	1	4.78	18	0	26.3	22	14	4	18	33	4.81
Ryan Moseley	R	26	4	3	5.08	46	2	72.7	70	41	7	53	61	5.15
Jordan Sheffield	R	26	4	5	6.18	39	10	62.7	62	43	13	55	69	6.50

Pitchers – Advanced

Player	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BB%	K%	BABIP	ERA+	ERA-	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Walker Buehler	11.3	2.3	1.1	6.4%	31.2%	.281	139	72	4.0	Bert Blyleven
Clayton Kershaw	9.7	1.7	1.3	4.7%	27.2%	.276	135	74	4.0	Warren Spahn
Dustin May	8.6	2.3	1.2	6.2%	22.7%	.290	112	89	2.7	Lindy McDaniel
Julio Urias	10.2	3.0	1.3	7.9%	27.2%	.282	119	84	2.2	Johnny Cooney
Alex Wood	8.7	2.3	1.2	6.1%	23.2%	.290	116	86	1.9	Jake Miller
Victor Gonzalez	8.3	3.3	0.9	8.6%	21.6%	.294	115	87	1.5	Max Lanier
David Price	8.9	2.6	1.5	6.9%	23.4%	.288	107	93	1.5	Kenny Rogers
Jimmy Nelson	9.4	3.7	1.3	9.3%	24.0%	.302	104	96	1.3	Marv Grissom
Blake Treinen	8.9	3.2	0.7	8.4%	23.6%	.291	131	76	1.1	Jumbo Brown
Caleb Ferguson	12.2	3.9	1.1	10.3%	31.9%	.299	123	81	1.1	Billy McCool
Josiah Gray	7.8	2.5	1.7	6.6%	20.3%	.285	90	111	1.0	Larry Christenson
Tony Gonsolin	9.2	3.7	1.7	9.4%	23.5%	.285	92	109	0.9	Zach Day
Brusdar Graterol	7.7	2.9	0.7	7.5%	20.3%	.293	129	77	0.9	Frank Linzy
Mitch White	9.1	3.4	1.4	8.7%	23.3%	.295	98	102	0.8	Steve Arlin
Edwin Uceta	8.8	4.0	1.7	9.9%	22.1%	.294	88	114	0.8	Ed Wojna
Kenley Jansen	11.2	2.8	1.4	7.5%	30.0%	.283	117	86	0.7	Mike Timlin
Dennis Santana	9.8	4.1	1.6	10.4%	24.8%	.295	91	110	0.6	Mike Lumley
Adam Kolarek	6.7	2.6	0.7	6.8%	17.6%	.292	120	83	0.6	Steve Mingori
Andre Jackson	8.7	6.5	1.0	15.5%	20.9%	.295	88	113	0.6	Preston Hanna
Shea Spitzbarth	10.6	3.7	1.3	9.6%	27.6%	.292	110	91	0.5	Turk Farrell
Joe Kelly	9.8	4.4	0.8	11.3%	25.1%	.297	114	88	0.5	Dennis Higgins
Dylan Floro	7.2	2.5	0.9	6.6%	18.9%	.299	111	90	0.4	Ernie Johnson
Zach McAllister	9.3	2.4	1.3	6.4%	24.9%	.295	118	85	0.4	Chad Bradford
Scott Alexander	7.3	3.9	0.7	10.0%	18.7%	.292	111	90	0.4	Darold Knowles
Kyle Lobstein	7.7	4.1	1.3	10.3%	19.5%	.291	90	111	0.4	John Curtis
Pedro Baez	10.0	3.5	1.4	9.3%	26.2%	.274	107	93	0.4	Donne Wall
Marshall Kasowski	13.6	7.4	0.9	18.1%	33.5%	.293	108	93	0.3	Charlie Hough
Parker Curry	7.9	2.9	1.9	7.3%	19.9%	.295	86	117	0.3	Levale Speigner
Josh Sborz	9.9	3.4	1.2	8.8%	26.0%	.290	106	94	0.3	Ryan Speier
Jake McGee	10.1	2.6	1.6	6.8%	26.8%	.293	104	96	0.2	Rheal Cormier
Edubray Ramos	9.1	3.3	1.4	8.5%	23.5%	.294	100	100	0.2	Daryl Irvine
Austin Hamilton	6.7	3.7	1.5	9.2%	16.7%	.296	86	117	0.2	Wade Blasingame
Yadier Alvarez	10.9	7.4	1.2	17.6%	26.0%	.299	84	119	0.1	J.R. Richard
Logan Salow	10.6	6.6	1.1	16.1%	25.7%	.296	92	109	0.1	Clay Bryant
Reymin Guduan	9.6	5.0	1.3	12.4%	24.0%	.295	94	107	0.0	Tippy Martinez
Luis Vasquez	11.3	6.2	1.4	15.3%	28.0%	.290	91	110	-0.1	Ryne Duren
Ryan Moseley	7.6	6.6	0.9	15.5%	17.9%	.293	85	117	-0.2	Hal Reniff
Jordan Sheffield	9.9	7.9	1.9	18.0%	22.6%	.299	70	142	-0.7	Tim Meeks

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.