2021 ZiPS Projections: Chicago White Sox

November 17, 2020

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York White Sox.

ZiPS Projections

20212020

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Batters

The White Sox entered 2020 projected slightly behind the Indians and Twins, needing some breakouts to take the next step. And that’s largely what they did. A miserable stretch to end the season that likely cost him the AL Rookie of the Year award aside, Luis Robert met reasonable expectations with his bat and more than exceeded them defensively. B.J. Upton may not blow anyone away for his top comp, but the next one on the list is Bernie Williams, who didn’t divebomb in his late 20s. And while I’m still not wild about his desire to play the field, Eloy Jimenez hit like he needed to this season and he’s just a skosh of offense plus a change of position away from being star-level. He could very easily get there anyway; his 80th percentile projection is 3.8 WAR and a 151 OPS+.

Tim Anderson is a tricky player for a projection system to deal with. The fundamentals say that he should be one of the top BABIP hitters in baseball, but there’s a difference between that threshold and the .395 he put up across 2019 and ’20. That’s a real high-wire act and ZiPS isn’t ready to go 20 points further than Ty Cobb‘s all-time mark, the best in baseball since 1901. (Amusingly, if you set the threshold since 1901 at just 1000 PA, Jorge Alfaro is the all-time leader.) Anderson has crept up to a .347 BABIP projection, but he’ll have to keep defying the baseball gods to push any further in ZiPS.

Now that the White Sox are a legitimate contender, the calculus for overpaying James McCann to be a backup-plus — thus pushing Yasmani Grandal to some DH at-bats to keep him fresh — changes significantly. For a team in the middle of a rebuild, it’s an awkward luxury, but the White Sox are now in a position where they ought to absorb less risk. Zack Collins — or some veteran stopgap — would be perfectly fine as a backup, but I think the White Sox ought to retain more depth here. Grandal not having as many innings behind the plate as the average 32-year-old catcher isn’t quite the same thing as having 22-year-old knees.

The Twins are far from a perfect team and the Indians no longer have Mike Clevinger (even though he’s injured, the performance is still gone) and seem nearly certain to trade Francisco Lindor this offseason, so the White Sox enter 2021 in a strong position. It’s time to make a real addition in right; the speculative “let’s see what happens by giving Nomar Mazara a change of uniform” idea seems a lot less fitting this time around. If I were the White Sox, I’d pursue one of Houston’s free agent outfielders — and I don’t mean Josh Reddick — with the same gusto with which ownership pursued a managerial hire that makes one wonder if it’s 1985.

Lastly, while this might be a disappointing projection for MVP Jose Abreu after having arguably the best season of his career nearly out of nowhere, but he’s still a 34-year-old first baseman who appeared in steep decline before the abbreviated 2020 campaign.

Pitchers

Lucas Giolito did it again! All the ZiPS aren’t in, but he’s almost certainly going to project as one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball and one of the leading early picks for the AL Cy Young award. ZiPS was already quite satisfied with his changes in 2019 and nothing he did in 2020 changed that outlook. The team’s getting close to the point where they really need to start talking about a long-term deal.

Dallas Keuchel ain’t keeping his crazy-low HR/9 of 2020, but ZiPS still thinks he’ll keep it low enough thanks to the system’s inclusion of Statcast data, which it has used for a few years. Keuchel was one of my favorite signings last offseason despite the warning signs present in his more traditional stats (declining velocity in the danger zone, moving to a homer-friendly park) and he remains so.

ZiPS is quite optimistic about Dylan Cease getting his strikeouts back. From his contact, velocity, and movement data, Cease had the second-largest difference in actual vs. expected strikeouts in baseball, striking out 14 fewer batters than ZiPS thought his pitching deserved, behind only Ryan Yarbrough.

The successful return of Dane Dunning and a (hopefully) similar experience for Michael Kopech makes the depth chart for the ZiPS rotation projection deeper than in recent years. The team’s no longer counting too much on Reynaldo Lopez, who can likely return to being a serviceable innings-eater despite a miserable 2020. Lopez is technically a non-tender candidate, but he shouldn’t be a huge cost in what is just his first year of arbitration. Less likely to return is Carlos Rodon.

Still, this general optimism shouldn’t keep the team from bringing in a veteran or two to fatten up the starting five.

One pedantic note for 2021: For the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Yasmani Grandal	B	32	C	522	437	62	99	19	1	23	74	78	142	2	1
Luis Robert	R	23	CF	580	535	79	141	24	6	27	89	32	167	24	8
Yoan Moncada	B	26	3B	609	545	81	142	26	5	24	81	57	183	9	4
Tim Anderson	R	28	SS	604	577	91	168	31	3	23	69	20	137	18	5
Eloy Jimenez	R	24	LF	567	529	72	151	30	2	34	106	32	136	0	0
Jose Abreu	R	34	1B	589	540	74	148	32	2	29	112	33	134	1	1
Nick Madrigal	R	24	2B	500	462	49	134	20	2	4	37	24	26	17	10
Danny Mendick	R	27	2B	532	469	60	111	19	2	13	51	54	115	12	7
James McCann	R	31	C	424	386	47	94	15	1	15	53	27	121	2	2
Leury Garcia	B	30	CF	484	453	59	121	18	3	10	45	18	103	10	4
Yermin Mercedes	R	28	C	384	349	44	85	15	1	14	50	27	86	2	1
Adam Engel	R	29	CF	449	414	47	94	19	4	11	43	23	127	10	4
Nomar Mazara	L	26	RF	516	471	58	117	23	1	18	74	36	138	2	1
Edwin Encarnacion	R	38	DH	429	377	56	77	13	0	25	71	41	116	0	0
Zack Collins	L	26	C	427	358	48	68	15	1	14	50	62	157	1	0
Jarrod Dyson	L	36	CF	310	277	42	60	6	2	4	22	27	56	24	3
Tim Beckham	R	31	SS	427	394	49	94	18	2	17	60	28	125	3	4
Xavier Fernandez	R	25	C	335	312	36	74	14	0	10	36	18	61	2	2
Andrew Vaughn	R	23	1B	540	481	60	113	28	0	13	54	41	114	0	3
Jake Burger	R	25	3B	525	469	61	106	16	1	14	58	39	101	2	2
Jaycob Brugman	L	29	RF	372	340	40	78	14	2	14	47	29	108	2	1
Luis Gonzalez	L	25	CF	485	441	50	96	18	3	10	45	34	123	8	6
Seby Zavala	R	27	C	405	373	43	75	14	0	15	50	25	159	1	1
Nicky Delmonico	L	28	LF	288	257	28	57	11	2	8	35	27	70	2	1
Laz Rivera	R	26	SS	497	462	46	104	19	1	6	37	14	110	9	9
Gavin Sheets	L	25	1B	535	484	56	109	17	1	12	61	43	125	2	1
Blake Rutherford	L	24	RF	518	484	50	110	19	5	9	49	30	146	8	5
Johan Cruz	R	25	SS	336	312	28	58	10	1	5	26	18	108	3	2
Zach Remillard	R	27	SS	485	451	43	87	14	1	9	38	25	168	4	4
Micker Adolfo	R	24	RF	376	333	38	60	15	1	10	37	33	160	1	7
Tyler Frost	L	25	RF	462	424	44	76	14	3	13	44	27	185	5	5

Batters – Advanced

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	ISO	BABIP	RC/27	Def	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Yasmani Grandal	.227	.345	.432	111	.206	.279	5.2	7	3.6	Mickey Tettleton
Luis Robert	.264	.312	.482	113	.219	.334	5.7	5	3.3	B.J. Upton
Yoan Moncada	.261	.333	.459	114	.198	.349	5.6	2	3.1	Kevin Seitzer
Tim Anderson	.291	.318	.475	113	.184	.348	5.9	-7	2.6	Lou Boudreau
Eloy Jimenez	.285	.328	.543	132	.257	.326	6.7	-7	2.5	Sixto Lezcano
Jose Abreu	.274	.324	.502	121	.228	.316	6.0	-2	2.0	Bob Watson
Nick Madrigal	.290	.335	.368	93	.078	.301	4.6	6	1.7	Cass Michaels
Danny Mendick	.237	.318	.369	88	.132	.287	4.1	6	1.6	Callix Crabbe
James McCann	.244	.304	.404	92	.161	.316	4.3	1	1.3	Ellie Rodriguez
Leury Garcia	.267	.301	.386	86	.119	.326	4.3	1	0.9	Jerry Mumphrey
Yermin Mercedes	.244	.299	.413	92	.169	.285	4.4	-6	0.6	Erik Pappas
Adam Engel	.227	.283	.372	77	.145	.301	3.7	3	0.5	James Mouton
Nomar Mazara	.248	.308	.416	96	.168	.314	4.6	-1	0.5	Jeremy Giambi
Edwin Encarnacion	.204	.294	.438	96	.233	.220	4.4	0	0.4	Don Baylor
Zack Collins	.190	.310	.355	82	.165	.289	3.7	-5	0.4	Doug Newstrom
Jarrod Dyson	.217	.292	.296	62	.079	.258	3.7	4	0.4	Mike Kingery
Tim Beckham	.239	.293	.424	93	.185	.306	4.3	-8	0.3	Jeff Blauser
Xavier Fernandez	.237	.281	.378	78	.141	.266	3.7	-2	0.2	Orlando Mercado
Andrew Vaughn	.235	.311	.374	87	.139	.282	4.0	1	0.0	Mike Carp
Jake Burger	.226	.301	.354	79	.128	.260	3.7	-3	0.0	Rich Paz
Jaycob Brugman	.229	.293	.406	88	.176	.294	4.2	-3	-0.2	Warren Newson
Luis Gonzalez	.218	.277	.340	68	.122	.279	3.2	3	-0.2	Jim Gosger
Seby Zavala	.201	.257	.359	66	.158	.302	3.1	-2	-0.3	John Gibbons
Nicky Delmonico	.222	.302	.374	84	.152	.274	3.9	-4	-0.4	Michael Tullier
Laz Rivera	.225	.266	.310	57	.084	.283	2.7	3	-0.7	Brian Grebeck
Gavin Sheets	.225	.292	.339	72	.114	.280	3.4	2	-0.8	Brett Roneberg
Blake Rutherford	.227	.272	.343	67	.116	.307	3.2	3	-1.1	Andy Tomberlin
Johan Cruz	.186	.231	.272	37	.087	.266	2.1	2	-1.2	Lauro Felix
Zach Remillard	.193	.241	.288	44	.095	.285	2.2	3	-1.4	Darrin Duffy
Micker Adolfo	.180	.266	.321	60	.141	.307	2.4	-5	-1.8	Scott Morgan
Tyler Frost	.179	.237	.318	50	.139	.279	2.4	-3	-2.4	Andy Abad

Pitchers – Standard

Player	T	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP
Lucas Giolito	R	26	16	7	3.00	30	30	180.0	129	60	21	56	248	2.94
Dallas Keuchel	L	33	12	8	3.99	26	26	153.3	146	68	20	47	126	4.23
Dylan Cease	R	25	10	9	4.48	31	30	144.7	137	72	20	72	146	4.60
Gio Gonzalez	L	35	8	6	4.35	26	22	132.3	123	64	19	61	127	4.58
Bernardo Flores Jr.	L	25	9	8	4.60	26	26	146.7	164	75	21	37	92	4.71
Reynaldo Lopez	R	27	10	9	4.68	28	28	148.0	145	77	24	57	132	4.80
Dane Dunning	R	26	4	4	4.64	18	18	87.3	86	45	13	36	75	4.81
Carlos Rodon	L	28	5	4	4.68	16	14	73.0	71	38	12	34	75	4.78
Aaron Bummer	L	27	1	1	3.50	58	0	61.7	53	24	5	26	60	3.70
Alex Colome	R	32	5	3	3.65	60	0	56.7	50	23	6	20	52	3.89
Tanner Banks	L	29	7	7	5.04	25	20	114.3	130	64	18	33	70	5.05
Lincoln Henzman	R	25	7	7	5.07	27	25	119.0	142	67	18	31	58	5.10
Evan Marshall	R	31	4	3	3.58	52	0	50.3	47	20	5	18	47	3.74
Michael Kopech	R	25	5	4	4.86	15	15	74.0	72	40	10	42	69	4.98
Codi Heuer	R	24	6	4	4.01	52	0	67.3	65	30	8	22	59	4.09
Jace Fry	L	27	3	2	3.97	62	0	56.7	45	25	5	35	71	3.78
Tyler Johnson	R	25	3	2	4.18	48	0	60.3	57	28	9	25	62	4.51
Jimmy Lambert	R	26	5	5	5.16	15	14	75.0	78	43	13	33	65	5.18
Garrett Crochet	R	22	2	1	3.86	35	0	35.0	32	15	4	11	34	3.92
Steve Cishek	R	35	3	2	4.18	59	0	51.7	44	24	7	25	54	4.65
Jimmy Cordero	R	29	4	3	4.31	60	0	64.7	62	31	6	35	56	4.51
Jacob Lindgren	L	28	2	1	3.80	16	1	21.3	20	9	2	9	18	4.12
Vince Arobio	R	26	6	5	4.53	38	1	59.7	56	30	8	30	61	4.54
Clayton Richard	L	37	6	7	5.51	18	17	99.7	111	61	18	38	66	5.50
John Parke	L	26	6	7	5.56	24	24	121.3	146	75	20	44	61	5.60
Bennett Sousa	L	26	5	5	4.75	48	0	66.3	74	35	10	19	41	4.90
Ryan Burr	R	27	3	3	4.80	37	0	45.0	41	24	6	31	47	5.02
Ross Detwiler	L	35	3	4	5.60	23	11	70.7	80	44	14	27	49	5.68
Matt Foster	R	26	5	5	4.91	52	1	62.3	65	34	10	28	45	5.31
Jose Ruiz	R	26	2	2	4.87	45	0	48.0	47	26	7	28	47	5.06
Zack Burdi	R	26	2	3	5.33	23	0	25.3	24	15	5	16	29	5.47
Felix Paulino	R	26	4	5	5.78	22	10	71.7	81	46	13	37	51	5.87
Hunter Schryver	L	26	3	3	5.16	41	0	59.3	62	34	11	28	53	5.42
Alec Hansen	R	26	3	3	5.27	47	0	54.7	47	32	7	52	63	5.56
Blake Battenfield	R	26	5	7	5.97	25	21	107.0	128	71	25	40	75	6.13
Jonathan Stiever	R	24	6	8	6.03	20	20	97.0	108	65	26	24	84	5.86
Spencer Adams	R	25	5	8	6.47	22	21	105.7	131	76	24	48	57	6.59

Pitchers – Advanced

Player	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BB%	K%	BABIP	ERA+	ERA-	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Lucas Giolito	12.4	2.8	1.1	7.8%	34.5%	.277	149	67	5.1	Jose Rijo
Dallas Keuchel	7.4	2.8	1.2	7.3%	19.5%	.281	112	89	2.7	Tommy John
Dylan Cease	9.1	4.5	1.2	11.3%	22.8%	.296	100	100	1.8	Steve Arlin
Gio Gonzalez	8.6	4.1	1.3	10.6%	22.1%	.285	103	98	1.8	Bob Veale
Bernardo Flores Jr.	5.6	2.3	1.3	5.8%	14.4%	.299	97	103	1.7	Jack Russell
Reynaldo Lopez	8.0	3.5	1.5	8.9%	20.6%	.287	95	105	1.6	Steve Hargan
Dane Dunning	7.7	3.7	1.3	9.4%	19.6%	.287	96	104	1.0	John Denny
Carlos Rodon	9.2	4.2	1.5	10.6%	23.3%	.298	95	105	0.9	Bill Wight
Aaron Bummer	8.8	3.8	0.7	9.9%	22.8%	.284	127	78	0.9	Darold Knowles
Alex Colome	8.3	3.2	1.0	8.4%	21.8%	.278	122	82	0.8	Greg Minton
Tanner Banks	5.5	2.6	1.4	6.5%	13.9%	.298	89	113	0.8	Wade Blasingame
Lincoln Henzman	4.4	2.3	1.4	5.9%	11.0%	.300	88	114	0.8	Rick Wise
Evan Marshall	8.4	3.2	0.9	8.5%	22.1%	.296	125	80	0.8	Jay Ritchie
Michael Kopech	8.4	5.1	1.2	12.5%	20.5%	.295	92	109	0.7	Blue Moon Odom
Codi Heuer	7.9	2.9	1.1	7.7%	20.6%	.292	111	90	0.6	Donnie Moore
Jace Fry	11.3	5.6	0.8	14.1%	28.5%	.294	112	89	0.4	Marcelino Lopez
Tyler Johnson	9.2	3.7	1.3	9.5%	23.6%	.294	107	94	0.4	Steve Gomez
Jimmy Lambert	7.8	4.0	1.6	9.9%	19.4%	.295	86	116	0.4	Jake Joseph
Garrett Crochet	8.7	2.8	1.0	7.4%	22.8%	.289	116	86	0.3	Cla Meredith
Steve Cishek	9.4	4.4	1.2	11.0%	23.8%	.274	107	94	0.3	Ted Abernathy
Jimmy Cordero	7.8	4.9	0.8	12.0%	19.2%	.296	103	97	0.3	Hal Reniff
Jacob Lindgren	7.6	3.8	0.8	9.8%	19.6%	.290	118	85	0.3	Hank Aguirre
Vince Arobio	9.2	4.5	1.2	11.4%	23.1%	.296	99	101	0.2	Mike Gardner
Clayton Richard	6.0	3.4	1.6	8.5%	14.8%	.292	81	123	0.2	Mel Harder
John Parke	4.5	3.3	1.5	8.0%	11.1%	.301	80	125	0.2	Jeff Johnson
Bennett Sousa	5.6	2.6	1.4	6.6%	14.1%	.295	94	106	0.0	Will McEnaney
Ryan Burr	9.4	6.2	1.2	15.0%	22.8%	.292	93	108	0.0	Newt Kimball
Ross Detwiler	6.2	3.4	1.8	8.5%	15.5%	.296	80	126	0.0	Brian Moehler
Matt Foster	6.5	4.0	1.4	10.1%	16.2%	.286	91	110	0.0	Horacio Pina
Jose Ruiz	8.8	5.3	1.3	12.8%	21.5%	.299	92	109	-0.1	Casey Daigle
Zack Burdi	10.3	5.7	1.8	13.9%	25.2%	.297	84	119	-0.2	Rick Greene
Felix Paulino	6.4	4.6	1.6	11.1%	15.4%	.301	77	129	-0.2	Ricky Steik
Hunter Schryver	8.0	4.2	1.7	10.4%	19.8%	.297	87	116	-0.3	Danny Zell
Alec Hansen	10.4	8.6	1.2	19.8%	24.0%	.290	85	118	-0.3	Sam Nahem
Blake Battenfield	6.3	3.4	2.1	8.2%	15.4%	.302	75	134	-0.3	Nate Cornejo
Jonathan Stiever	7.8	2.2	2.4	5.7%	19.9%	.291	74	135	-0.3	Ryan Cox
Spencer Adams	4.9	4.1	2.0	9.7%	11.6%	.299	69	145	-0.9	Rick Sutcliffe

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.