2021 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs

December 21, 2020

ZiPS Projections

20212020

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

I would argue that the current Cubs squad is a lot like The Godfather: Part III. Brilliance has been supplanted by mere competence, and most of the results look unimpressive when compared to the team’s peak. Like the latter days of Michael Corleone’s criminal empire, the Cubs have fallen from dominance. The manager for those teams is in Los Angeles, the front office’s leading light is gone, and much of the supporting cast has moved on. You can even pretend that whatever sum the Cubs lost in 2020 is a parallel to the $600 million stolen by Don Lucchesi and Archbishop Gilday through International Immobiliare! Heck, maybe Joey Lucchesi will throw a no-hitter against the Cubs.

Some of the central components of the Cubs’ more potent offenses remain in Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant. But none of them can boast a 2020 anywhere near their best season, and only Rizzo was really a key contributor. All three are free agents after 2021, and with the Cubs crying poor, it doesn’t seem like any big contract offers are in the works. If anything, the speculation this winter has been more about trades than extensions, particularly with Bryant. The larger issue is that all three have seen their projections follow a downward trajectory in recent seasons, so even re-signing all three would be no panacea.

The good news for the Cubs comes from outside Wrigley: if they’re not trying aggressively to win the division, nobody else in the NL Central appears to be either. The Brewers aren’t making big signings and the Cardinals were apparently content to non-tender Kolten Wong. The Pirates will be lucky to win 70 games, and the Cincinnati Reds, the division’s most aggressive team the last two winters, seem more interested in possibly shopping Luis Castillo and/or Sonny Gray than finding a replacement for Trevor Bauer. ZiPS ranks Chicago’s lineup somewhere around 10th-12th in baseball (pending the final team projections), and while that’s not particularly impressive, it may be the best ranking in the NL Central.

Jason Heyward has to demonstrate that his surprisingly solid 2020 revival has legs, but he does get his best offensive projection in a few years. Ian Happ looks a lot like a keeper and is much better in center field than he has any right to be. The problem is what comes after these two; ZiPS remains on the fence about Nico Hoerner‘s long-term value, and the only offensive prospect it’s really excited about is Miguel Amaya. Catching prospects, however, will break your heart.

This offense is good enough for now, but it won’t carry the team, and the club will need a lot of investment or clever trading in 2022 to avoid looking unbearably bleak. Speaking of unbearably bleak…

Pitchers

ZiPS is decidedly not a fan of the Cubs’ pitching staff. First, the two exceptions. Yu Darvish is back and he’s a legitimate star with his reconfigured repertoire and dramatically improved control. Despite the rocky start to his stint in Chicago, he’s a wonderful pitcher to have at the top of the rotation. Elsewhere, Kyle Hendricks is one of the best number-two pitchers in the game and was fortunate to reach the majors at a time when pitch movement became sexier than eye-popping radar gun readouts.

But if Steamer is pessimistic about the back of the rotation, ZiPS’ view is more depressing than the end of a Cormac McCarthy novel. Neither Jose Quintana nor Jon Lester, both free agents, got excellent projections, but they’d still project as the third and fourth-best pitchers on the team, respectively. The computer doesn’t see Adbert Alzolay as a good bet to match his 2020 ERA of 3.05 in 21 1/3 innings, barely sees Alec Mills as a major league starter, and pegs Colin Rea as below replacement level. The only starting pitcher outside the top two with a projection you can remotely call sunny is Brailyn Marquez, whose major league debut is literally his only experience above High-A.

Similarly, ZiPS projects the bullpen as a bottom-five group based on the current roster. Most of the marginal relievers already have major league contracts for the 2021 season, making it unlikely that the Cubs will just cut them and move on. The Craig Kimbrel projection does at least suggest adequacy, which the Cubs will happily take if he can consistently maintain that level throughout the entire season. It’s not ideal if he again loses the closer job before he figures out where the strike zone is.

Despite all this, the Cubs still have a good shot at making the playoffs because, again, NL Central stuff. But this year, even if successful on those terms, will feel more valedictory than triumphant, as the Cubs look towards 2022 with a roster that will retain few of the reasons they popped champagne in 2016.

Batters – Standard

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Javier Baez	R	28	SS	606	571	85	152	31	4	29	91	27	170	12	5
Anthony Rizzo	L	31	1B	592	497	73	130	24	2	24	85	68	89	7	3
Kris Bryant	R	29	3B	596	515	86	130	29	3	24	67	62	137	3	2
Ian Happ	B	26	CF	567	488	76	122	23	2	27	77	72	168	8	5
Willson Contreras	R	29	C	498	429	63	107	22	2	18	68	49	118	3	4
Kyle Schwarber	L	28	LF	536	457	73	105	19	2	31	79	72	152	2	2
Jason Heyward	L	31	RF	500	436	62	112	18	4	14	59	57	89	5	2
David Bote	R	28	2B	431	378	51	87	17	2	16	64	44	119	5	2
Victor Caratini	B	27	C	366	324	38	83	17	1	8	45	33	76	0	1
Ian Miller	L	29	CF	534	490	57	126	24	4	6	46	33	97	28	6
Nico Hoerner	R	24	SS	424	383	55	100	17	4	5	48	32	61	9	5
Miguel Amaya	R	22	C	465	405	55	81	24	1	15	62	48	106	1	0
Patrick Wisdom	R	29	3B	436	394	53	88	18	1	18	59	35	139	7	2
Abiatal Avelino	R	26	SS	540	508	55	127	20	7	10	50	24	101	14	5
Jason Kipnis	L	34	2B	454	403	47	96	23	1	12	56	42	96	5	1
Ildemaro Vargas	B	29	2B	447	421	50	111	20	5	7	39	20	50	4	2
Rafael Ortega	L	30	CF	526	480	58	118	25	6	11	51	43	94	14	6
Steven Souza Jr.	R	32	RF	338	295	37	64	14	2	13	48	38	111	8	2
Jordan Patterson	L	29	1B	460	415	54	92	21	2	17	50	27	146	3	2
Hernan Perez	R	30	2B	364	341	39	86	15	2	10	38	19	74	10	2
Corban Joseph	L	32	2B	478	444	48	115	23	1	8	49	27	57	2	2
Trent Giambrone	R	27	2B	493	450	56	100	19	1	18	55	36	137	15	6
Jose Martinez	R	32	RF	425	386	48	100	18	1	12	51	36	95	2	0
Taylor Gushue	B	27	C	371	339	38	76	15	1	12	41	25	101	0	0
Mark Zagunis	R	28	RF	408	352	46	81	18	1	10	40	48	124	7	3
P.J. Higgins	R	28	C	447	398	43	92	15	1	7	37	37	89	3	2
Max Schrock	L	26	3B	374	345	37	84	15	1	6	29	25	66	5	2
Billy Hamilton	B	30	CF	407	370	56	84	12	5	3	20	30	91	32	9
Cameron Maybin	R	34	LF	343	307	40	75	17	1	6	29	33	86	11	5
Albert Almora Jr.	R	27	CF	346	319	40	79	14	2	8	31	19	62	3	1
Tyler Payne	R	28	C	349	326	33	70	14	1	9	35	18	80	0	0
Daniel Descalso	L	34	2B	327	279	37	59	12	2	8	39	42	88	2	1
Michael Hermosillo	R	26	CF	367	324	40	68	12	2	10	37	27	116	12	6
Alfonso Rivas	L	24	1B	523	469	54	113	22	3	7	43	46	125	3	3
Brennen Davis	R	21	CF	207	185	29	35	8	2	9	31	15	48	4	2
Ryan LaMarre	R	32	CF	397	364	35	80	14	4	6	30	24	122	10	6
Cam Balego	R	26	3B	434	381	43	77	17	0	8	37	39	102	2	5
Jose Lobaton	B	36	C	302	276	27	57	13	1	7	28	22	85	1	0
Erick Castillo	R	28	C	159	145	12	30	5	0	1	10	9	33	0	0
Josh Phegley	R	33	C	265	241	33	54	12	1	8	40	14	50	0	1
Aramis Ademan	L	22	SS	500	447	48	91	13	9	9	45	41	127	12	11
Vance Vizcaino	L	26	LF	371	340	36	74	11	2	5	29	25	112	19	9
Christopher Morel	R	22	3B	316	298	30	62	11	4	7	30	11	85	5	8
Connor Myers	R	27	CF	396	367	31	68	14	4	3	24	19	148	11	6

Batters – Advanced

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	ISO	BABIP	RC/27	Def	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Javier Baez	.266	.302	.487	102	.221	.331	5.5	2	3.3	Alfonso Soriano
Anthony Rizzo	.262	.372	.463	118	.201	.276	6.3	4	3.3	Richie Hebner
Kris Bryant	.252	.347	.460	110	.208	.299	5.8	-2	3.2	Todd Zeile
Ian Happ	.250	.350	.471	113	.221	.324	5.9	-6	2.8	Ron Swoboda
Willson Contreras	.249	.347	.436	104	.186	.304	5.3	-3	2.6	Johnny Romano
Kyle Schwarber	.230	.340	.484	113	.254	.270	5.7	0	2.4	Greg Brock
Jason Heyward	.257	.346	.413	99	.156	.294	5.2	7	2.2	Del Unser
David Bote	.230	.318	.413	90	.183	.292	4.6	1	1.5	Jay Canizaro
Victor Caratini	.256	.333	.389	89	.133	.313	4.6	-1	1.3	Jerry Grote
Ian Miller	.257	.310	.359	75	.102	.310	4.4	3	1.3	Eddie Milner
Nico Hoerner	.261	.325	.366	82	.104	.300	4.3	0	1.2	Frankie Gustine
Miguel Amaya	.200	.295	.375	74	.175	.232	3.8	1	1.1	Rick Wilkins
Patrick Wisdom	.223	.292	.411	82	.188	.295	4.3	0	0.9	Jim Chamblee
Abiatal Avelino	.250	.285	.376	72	.126	.295	3.9	2	0.9	Aaron Holbert
Jason Kipnis	.238	.312	.390	83	.151	.285	4.4	-2	0.9	Chris Truby
Ildemaro Vargas	.264	.298	.385	78	.121	.286	4.2	3	0.9	Alex Cintron
Rafael Ortega	.246	.309	.392	82	.146	.285	4.4	-3	0.8	Eddie Milner
Steven Souza Jr.	.217	.312	.410	88	.193	.298	4.5	2	0.8	Brad Tyler
Jordan Patterson	.222	.290	.405	80	.183	.298	4.0	7	0.7	Doug DeVore
Hernan Perez	.252	.290	.396	78	.144	.296	4.3	0	0.7	Julian Javier
Corban Joseph	.259	.302	.369	75	.110	.282	4.0	1	0.6	Mark Christman
Trent Giambrone	.222	.283	.389	74	.167	.278	3.9	0	0.6	Dan Uggla
Jose Martinez	.259	.322	.404	89	.145	.315	4.8	-3	0.5	Keith Moreland
Taylor Gushue	.224	.278	.381	71	.156	.283	3.7	-1	0.4	Alan Ashby
Mark Zagunis	.230	.329	.372	84	.142	.326	4.3	-2	0.4	Todd Self
P.J. Higgins	.231	.300	.327	65	.095	.281	3.4	0	0.4	Jeff Tackett
Max Schrock	.243	.299	.345	69	.101	.286	3.7	1	0.3	Bruce Yard
Billy Hamilton	.227	.283	.311	56	.084	.293	3.5	5	0.3	Rich Thompson
Cameron Maybin	.244	.321	.365	80	.121	.321	4.2	0	0.3	Chris Clapinski
Albert Almora Jr.	.248	.292	.379	75	.132	.285	4.0	-2	0.2	Ron Henika
Tyler Payne	.215	.261	.347	58	.132	.257	3.1	1	0.1	Brandon Marsters
Daniel Descalso	.211	.316	.355	76	.143	.279	3.8	-5	0.0	David Matranga
Michael Hermosillo	.210	.288	.352	67	.142	.293	3.5	-2	-0.1	Rashad Eldridge
Alfonso Rivas	.241	.314	.345	73	.104	.315	3.8	3	-0.1	Francisco Melendez
Brennen Davis	.189	.267	.400	72	.211	.203	3.6	-3	-0.1	Curt Flood
Ryan LaMarre	.220	.275	.330	58	.110	.314	3.1	2	-0.2	Reggie Williams
Cam Balego	.202	.293	.310	59	.108	.255	2.9	2	-0.2	Pat Peavey
Jose Lobaton	.207	.268	.337	58	.130	.272	3.1	-2	-0.3	Joe Oliver
Erick Castillo	.207	.261	.262	38	.055	.261	2.3	1	-0.3	Pedro Grifol
Josh Phegley	.224	.277	.382	71	.158	.251	3.6	-7	-0.3	Joe Oliver
Aramis Ademan	.204	.277	.333	60	.130	.264	2.9	-2	-0.4	Jose Morban
Vance Vizcaino	.218	.274	.306	52	.088	.309	2.9	5	-0.6	Kevin Wiggins
Christopher Morel	.208	.242	.342	51	.134	.267	2.4	1	-0.8	Kyle Reynolds
Connor Myers	.185	.232	.270	32	.084	.301	2.0	-1	-2.0	Justin Singleton

Pitchers – Standard

Player	T	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP
Yu Darvish	R	34	9	6	3.65	26	26	150.3	128	61	20	45	180	3.57
Kyle Hendricks	R	31	11	10	4.11	28	28	166.3	167	76	25	35	137	4.23
Jose Quintana	L	32	8	8	4.76	25	22	126.7	130	67	21	42	118	4.54
Jon Lester	L	37	8	9	4.96	25	25	132.3	145	73	24	46	112	4.98
Cory Abbott	R	25	7	8	5.08	25	25	125.7	125	71	22	62	128	5.09
Michael Rucker	R	27	3	4	4.73	30	11	91.3	96	48	15	33	84	4.72
Alec Mills	R	29	7	8	5.12	26	22	128.3	134	73	24	44	110	5.11
Brailyn Marquez	L	22	5	6	4.95	18	18	76.3	73	42	10	46	76	4.86
Craig Kimbrel	R	33	3	2	3.67	45	0	41.7	30	17	6	21	59	3.95
Tyler Chatwood	R	31	5	5	4.91	24	13	80.7	73	44	9	54	82	4.75
Jeremy Jeffress	R	33	4	3	4.05	52	0	53.3	50	24	6	21	46	4.27
Rowan Wick	R	28	3	2	4.08	56	0	57.3	51	26	6	30	63	4.07
Adbert Alzolay	R	26	4	4	5.10	20	17	77.7	75	44	14	40	83	5.09
Andrew Chafin	L	31	3	2	4.03	65	0	44.7	40	20	5	18	51	3.69
Robert Stock	R	31	3	3	4.32	40	2	50.0	45	24	6	29	56	4.36
Justin Steele	L	25	3	3	4.95	12	12	40.0	40	22	6	21	38	4.96
James Bourque	R	27	3	4	4.60	38	4	60.7	57	31	8	33	64	4.56
Jonathan Holder	R	28	4	3	4.28	51	0	61.0	58	29	8	23	59	4.18
Jack Patterson	L	25	5	5	5.09	25	10	70.7	71	40	9	42	63	5.01
Duane Underwood Jr.	R	26	5	5	5.08	38	12	95.7	98	54	16	42	91	4.93
Duncan Robinson	R	27	5	6	5.36	20	19	99.0	114	59	18	29	67	5.22
Erich Uelmen	R	25	5	6	5.38	18	18	85.3	93	51	11	47	60	5.28
Ryan Tepera	R	33	3	3	4.34	50	0	47.7	43	23	7	23	50	4.63
Dillon Maples	R	29	3	3	4.29	44	0	42.0	30	20	4	35	61	4.30
Kelvin Herrera	R	31	3	2	4.33	47	0	43.7	44	21	6	15	43	4.10
Tyler Olson	L	31	2	1	4.34	47	0	37.3	36	18	5	17	39	4.36
Wyatt Short	L	26	4	4	4.50	46	0	60.0	58	30	7	33	56	4.63
Pedro Strop	R	36	3	3	4.46	44	0	36.3	32	18	5	18	35	4.78
Danny Hultzen	L	31	0	0	4.72	17	1	13.3	13	7	2	8	14	5.06
Jerry Vasto	L	29	2	2	4.60	26	0	29.3	27	15	4	16	31	4.68
D.J. Snelten	L	29	3	3	4.64	32	0	42.7	42	22	5	25	37	4.94
Brock Stewart	R	29	4	5	5.55	20	16	82.7	89	51	16	39	69	5.59
Jason Adam	R	29	3	3	4.81	39	1	39.3	35	21	7	23	47	5.09
Jake Jewell	R	28	3	3	4.67	53	0	61.7	62	32	8	27	52	4.74
Dan Winkler	R	31	2	2	4.69	55	0	48.0	43	25	7	29	52	4.97
Bailey Clark	R	26	3	3	5.17	28	4	47.0	48	27	6	30	39	5.29
Brad Wieck	L	29	2	2	4.71	46	0	42.0	36	22	7	18	49	4.44
Craig Brooks	R	28	3	3	4.72	43	0	53.3	46	28	7	36	60	4.83
Keegan Thompson	R	26	5	7	5.65	20	20	92.3	104	58	20	32	74	5.60
Matt Dermody	L	30	2	2	4.88	26	0	31.3	34	17	6	8	25	5.03
Rex Brothers	L	33	2	3	5.13	31	1	33.3	27	19	5	27	45	5.04
Matt Swarmer	R	27	7	11	5.66	24	22	125.7	144	79	29	38	104	5.60
Tyson Miller	R	25	5	7	5.71	21	20	97.7	108	62	20	40	80	5.59
James Norwood	R	27	2	3	4.94	44	0	51.0	47	28	7	33	58	4.81
Riley Thompson	R	24	4	6	5.87	16	16	61.3	68	40	11	34	43	5.97
Kyle Ryan	L	29	2	3	4.99	62	0	52.3	51	29	8	27	49	4.96
Colin Rea	R	30	5	7	5.84	22	18	91.0	103	59	19	41	70	5.87
Dakota Mekkes	R	26	3	4	5.07	46	0	55.0	51	31	8	37	58	5.14
Ben Taylor	R	28	3	3	5.08	47	0	56.7	57	32	11	23	60	4.91
Cody Allen	R	32	3	3	5.13	51	0	47.3	45	27	9	25	54	5.08
Ben Hecht	R	26	2	3	5.40	41	1	51.7	50	31	6	39	49	5.23
Manuel Rodriguez	R	24	3	3	5.36	39	0	47.0	45	28	6	35	44	5.39
Gray Fenter	R	25	4	6	6.00	23	15	72.0	75	48	12	50	60	5.97
Luis Lugo	L	27	4	6	6.17	20	16	86.0	97	59	17	48	67	6.04
Jordan Minch	L	27	3	6	6.35	43	0	51.0	57	36	10	33	40	6.28

Pitchers – Advanced

Player	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BB%	K%	BABIP	ERA+	ERA-	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Yu Darvish	10.8	2.7	1.2	7.2%	28.9%	.292	120	83	3.2	Orel Hershiser
Kyle Hendricks	7.4	1.9	1.4	5.0%	19.7%	.289	107	94	2.7	Dock Ellis
Jose Quintana	8.4	3.0	1.5	7.7%	21.6%	.301	92	109	1.1	Kent Mercker
Jon Lester	7.6	3.1	1.6	7.9%	19.2%	.306	88	113	0.9	Wilbur Wood
Cory Abbott	9.2	4.4	1.6	11.0%	22.7%	.299	86	116	0.7	Tom Edens
Michael Rucker	8.3	3.3	1.5	8.2%	20.9%	.306	93	108	0.7	Bill Fischer
Alec Mills	7.7	3.1	1.7	7.8%	19.6%	.293	86	117	0.6	Travis Smith ???
Brailyn Marquez	9.0	5.4	1.2	13.3%	21.9%	.299	88	113	0.5	Eric Cyr
Craig Kimbrel	12.7	4.5	1.3	11.9%	33.3%	.273	119	84	0.5	Jeff Nelson
Tyler Chatwood	9.1	6.0	1.0	14.7%	22.3%	.292	89	112	0.5	Jaime Cocanower
Jeremy Jeffress	7.8	3.5	1.0	9.1%	20.0%	.286	108	92	0.5	Johnny Murphy
Rowan Wick	9.9	4.7	0.9	11.9%	25.0%	.300	107	93	0.4	George Smith
Adbert Alzolay	9.6	4.6	1.6	11.5%	23.9%	.296	86	116	0.4	Greg Aquino
Andrew Chafin	10.3	3.6	1.0	9.4%	26.7%	.304	109	92	0.3	Randy Choate
Robert Stock	10.1	5.2	1.1	13.0%	25.1%	.300	101	99	0.3	Jerry Johnson
Justin Steele	8.6	4.7	1.4	11.7%	21.1%	.301	88	113	0.3	Nate Robertson
James Bourque	9.5	4.9	1.2	12.2%	23.6%	.301	95	105	0.3	Jose Segura
Jonathan Holder	8.7	3.4	1.2	8.8%	22.5%	.294	102	98	0.3	Mark Ross
Jack Patterson	8.0	5.3	1.1	13.0%	19.4%	.301	86	116	0.3	Chris Short
Duane Underwood Jr.	8.6	4.0	1.5	9.9%	21.4%	.303	86	116	0.3	Yoel Hernandez
Duncan Robinson	6.1	2.6	1.6	6.6%	15.3%	.302	82	122	0.2	A.J. Sager
Erich Uelmen	6.3	5.0	1.2	11.9%	15.2%	.303	81	123	0.2	Jake Joseph
Ryan Tepera	9.4	4.3	1.3	11.0%	23.9%	.286	101	99	0.2	Dennis Higgins
Dillon Maples	13.1	7.5	0.9	18.1%	31.6%	.292	102	98	0.1	Scott Fredrickson
Kelvin Herrera	8.9	3.1	1.2	8.0%	22.9%	.309	101	99	0.1	Doug Sisk
Tyler Olson	9.4	4.1	1.2	10.3%	23.6%	.304	101	99	0.1	Tom Burgmeier
Wyatt Short	8.4	5.0	1.1	12.2%	20.7%	.298	97	103	0.1	Dan McGinn
Pedro Strop	8.7	4.5	1.2	11.3%	22.0%	.276	98	102	0.1	Al Worthington
Danny Hultzen	9.5	5.4	1.4	13.1%	23.0%	.306	93	108	0.0	Darold Knowles
Jerry Vasto	9.5	4.9	1.2	12.2%	23.7%	.295	95	105	0.0	Bobby Sprowl
D.J. Snelten	7.8	5.3	1.1	12.8%	19.0%	.296	94	106	0.0	Jim Brewer
Brock Stewart	7.5	4.2	1.7	10.4%	18.4%	.297	79	127	0.0	Landon Jacobsen
Jason Adam	10.8	5.3	1.6	13.0%	26.6%	.289	91	110	0.0	Ruddy Lugo
Jake Jewell	7.6	3.9	1.2	9.9%	19.0%	.297	94	107	0.0	Gary Wagner
Dan Winkler	9.8	5.4	1.3	13.4%	24.0%	.288	93	107	0.0	Dave Jolly
Bailey Clark	7.5	5.7	1.1	13.7%	17.8%	.298	85	118	0.0	Ken Wright
Brad Wieck	10.5	3.9	1.5	10.1%	27.4%	.282	93	108	0.0	Phil Norton
Craig Brooks	10.1	6.1	1.2	14.9%	24.8%	.287	93	108	0.0	George Smith
Keegan Thompson	7.2	3.1	1.9	7.8%	18.0%	.300	77	129	-0.1	Matt O’Brien
Matt Dermody	7.2	2.3	1.7	5.9%	18.4%	.295	90	111	-0.1	Erasmo Ramirez
Rex Brothers	12.2	7.3	1.4	17.5%	29.2%	.293	85	117	-0.1	Marshall Bridges
Matt Swarmer	7.4	2.7	2.1	6.8%	18.7%	.303	77	129	-0.1	Bill King
Tyson Miller	7.4	3.7	1.8	9.1%	18.2%	.299	77	130	-0.1	Preston Larrison
James Norwood	10.2	5.8	1.2	14.2%	24.9%	.303	89	113	-0.1	Pete Sikaras
Riley Thompson	6.3	5.0	1.6	11.9%	15.1%	.295	75	134	-0.2	Jesus Silva
Kyle Ryan	8.4	4.6	1.4	11.6%	21.0%	.293	88	114	-0.2	Jim Brewer
Colin Rea	6.9	4.1	1.9	9.9%	16.9%	.300	75	133	-0.3	Rick Rodriguez
Dakota Mekkes	9.5	6.1	1.3	14.7%	23.0%	.295	86	116	-0.3	Heathcliff Slocumb
Ben Taylor	9.5	3.7	1.7	9.3%	24.2%	.303	86	116	-0.3	Jeff McCurry
Cody Allen	10.3	4.8	1.7	11.8%	25.6%	.298	85	117	-0.3	Jim Czajkowski
Ben Hecht	8.5	6.8	1.0	16.0%	20.2%	.301	81	123	-0.4	Darin Moore
Manuel Rodriguez	8.4	6.7	1.1	15.8%	19.9%	.293	82	122	-0.4	Dave Cole
Gray Fenter	7.5	6.3	1.5	14.7%	17.6%	.294	73	137	-0.4	Luz Portobanco
Luis Lugo	7.0	5.0	1.8	11.9%	16.7%	.302	71	141	-0.6	John Courtright
Jordan Minch	7.1	5.8	1.8	13.6%	16.5%	.301	69	145	-1.0	George Sherrill

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.

What Happens the Year After a Velocity Spike?

Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.