2021 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves

November 23, 2020

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves.

ZiPS Projections

20212020

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Batters

How do you get to the playoffs easily with only one dependable starter? Pummeling the league into submission with your offense is a good place to start. The Dodgers led the National League in runs scored, but the Braves finished only a single run behind them. Marcell Ozuna‘s one-year contract turned out to be one of the best moves of the winter. Unable to maintain the level of his 2017 breakout the last couple of years, he went out and topped even that season, hitting .338/.431/.636 and earning two-thirds of a Triple Crown by finishing third in batting average while leading the league in homers and RBIs. Sure, it wouldn’t have been quite the same in a 60-game season, though one could argue that batting average is harder to lead in over a short year due to being a volatile qualitative measure.

Atlanta now faces the challenge of replacing Ozuna’s production. That won’t happen in full, but newly minted NL MVP Freddie Freeman returns, as does the Ronald Acuna Jr./Ozzie Albies tandem, a pair of young stars that can quite literally match up with any such coupling in MLB history. Freeman did as much to push his Hall of Fame case forward as you can in 60 games and passed the halfway mark to 3,000 hits; he’ll likely finish in the 2,500-hit range, something he’ll likely need with around 400 home runs as a first baseman. By the time he retires, ZiPS projects him to have the fourth-most WAR for a 21st-century first baseman with around 60, but that’s not slam-dunk territory.

Acuna’s a superstar, and one has to remember that the top comp in his cohort is the young, dynamic Jose Canseco, not the plodding slugger the latter was late in his career. In a way, it feels almost fitting to have him comped to the first 40/40 hitter. Technically, Acuna has the talent to be the first 50/50 hitter someday, but there’s always that issue that the better a player hits, the more resistant managers become to letting them run the bases aggressively. Even Rickey Henderson‘s attempts dropped over time!

There are still some offensive holes for the Braves to fill. Maybe holes is too strong a word, though I’m not sure Cristian Pache is a starter at this point (Steamer is even more skeptical). But there are, at least, areas for concern. One is in left, where Adam Duvall is best suited as a reserve and occasional pleasant surprise when he goes on a power run rather than an underwhelming starter. If the Braves aren’t into spending a lot of money — and no team really appears to be all that into this — Joc Pederson would be a fun acquisition. Duvall doesn’t have big platoon splits, but Pederson certainly does! At the very least, it would be better than calling Nick Markakis yet again.

Pitchers

The fate of Mike Soroka is again a big separator between ZiPS and Steamer — ZiPS being generally bullish, Steamer generally bearish. One of the big X factors is how well Soroka can continue to suppress homers, something ZiPS is fairly confident about given the hit data against Soroka in his rookie season. But it’s not quite as confident as it was before 2020; missing a year due to injury, even a non-arm one, has a nasty way of introducting uncertainty into the mix.

Due to Soroka’s missing season, Max Fried edges him out in the ZiPS projections, the computer seeing him as a solid No. 2 starter threatening to cross into ace territory. And Fried certainly was the team’s ace in 2020, putting up a 2.25 ERA in his 11 starts while the rest of the rotation combined for a bleak 6.44 ERA. That figure even includes Ian Anderson‘s solid six starts towards the end of the year. ZiPS still thinks he could stand to shed a walk per game or so, and, like Fried, he isn’t projected to be anywhere near as effective at preventing round-trippers as 2020, but he does get a projection of a solid mid-rotation starter.

The good news is that ZiPS does not project the “other guys” to pitch anywhere near as poorly as 2020, which should effectively counter any regression from Fried and/or Anderson. Soroka’s return is obviously a huge part of that, but ZiPS likes Bryse Wilson and at least thinks Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint will be better than replacement. Drew Smyly was terrific in his brief time with the Giants, showing better velocity than ever, but given his long-term injury record, the projections are going to be conservative for the moment. Between the most recent graduations and trades, the pitching prospect cupboard is finally starting to look a little short-stocked, but at least Atlanta is closer to knowing what it has long-term as it contends for the next half-decade.

One pedantic note for 2021: For the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Ronald Acuna Jr.	R	23	LF	672	570	134	161	30	2	43	115	91	171	33	7
Ozzie Albies	B	24	2B	659	609	105	174	38	6	28	91	43	115	18	3
Freddie Freeman	L	31	1B	625	533	98	158	39	2	28	111	82	112	6	3
Marcell Ozuna	R	30	LF	598	537	82	154	27	2	34	126	58	131	5	1
Dansby Swanson	R	27	SS	597	533	81	134	29	3	19	81	54	154	11	3
Travis d’Arnaud	R	32	C	422	382	46	101	18	0	16	79	33	97	1	0
Adam Duvall	R	32	LF	497	451	64	103	22	2	28	91	35	140	2	1
Braden Shewmake	L	23	SS	498	458	55	115	26	6	7	51	32	87	16	6
Austin Riley	R	24	3B	529	486	67	116	24	3	26	87	36	160	0	1
Johan Camargo	B	27	3B	456	420	54	103	26	1	15	58	30	108	0	0
Ender Inciarte	L	30	CF	497	448	63	114	18	4	8	46	39	77	16	7
Tyler Flowers	R	35	C	297	259	28	55	11	1	8	30	27	104	0	0
Cristian Pache	R	22	CF	506	471	52	112	27	8	13	59	30	132	5	9
Drew Waters	B	22	LF	578	540	59	127	34	8	11	55	31	187	12	6
Adeiny Hechavarria	R	32	SS	316	294	36	76	14	2	5	32	17	57	2	1
Justin Dean	R	24	CF	440	395	46	82	13	8	6	34	38	134	23	11
Riley Unroe	B	25	SS	480	430	47	94	16	3	8	43	42	136	9	6
Jack Mayfield	R	30	2B	420	388	51	94	22	1	14	58	22	94	4	2
Alex Jackson	R	25	C	355	324	39	64	14	1	16	49	19	140	1	0
Abraham Almonte	B	32	CF	315	277	40	63	16	4	8	33	36	71	9	5
Scott Schebler	L	30	CF	395	354	42	79	16	1	12	52	31	97	2	3
Matt Adams	L	32	1B	315	292	34	63	12	0	15	63	20	101	0	0
Charlie Culberson	R	32	LF	249	233	26	54	10	2	6	29	12	70	2	1
William Contreras	R	23	C	401	376	37	85	19	1	9	37	21	105	0	0
Pablo Sandoval	B	34	3B	282	258	27	61	12	0	9	40	19	60	0	0
Shane Robinson	R	36	CF	320	292	35	70	10	2	3	23	21	40	7	2
Sal Giardina	B	29	C	193	172	16	34	7	0	2	12	9	60	0	0
Jack Lopez	R	28	3B	428	403	43	91	13	1	10	43	15	117	10	4
Nick Markakis	L	37	RF	428	390	45	100	27	2	5	46	32	70	0	1
Logan Brown	L	24	C	306	291	23	60	10	1	2	19	12	80	0	1
CJ Alexander	L	24	3B	226	202	21	39	6	3	3	16	22	68	3	2
Ryan Casteel	R	30	1B	442	411	44	88	20	2	16	60	27	134	1	1
Sean Kazmar Jr.	R	36	1B	362	340	33	77	14	1	6	32	15	54	2	1
Riley Delgado	R	26	SS	541	508	44	119	17	2	1	29	23	60	1	1
Jefrey Ramos	R	22	LF	457	432	42	92	16	4	11	46	19	120	1	1
Tyler Neslony	L	27	RF	405	373	38	80	17	2	7	35	27	110	5	5
Greyson Jenista	L	24	RF	475	430	45	86	17	4	11	46	39	163	3	8
Alejandro Salazar	R	24	2B	446	425	32	88	14	3	2	25	12	125	7	7

Batters – Advanced

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	ISO	BABIP	RC/27	Def	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Ronald Acuna Jr.	.282	.390	.568	147	.286	.331	8.7	4	6.5	Jose Canseco
Ozzie Albies	.286	.335	.506	117	.220	.313	6.6	5	4.7	Roberto Alomar
Freddie Freeman	.296	.395	.535	141	.238	.331	8.1	3	4.7	Todd Helton
Marcell Ozuna	.287	.356	.534	130	.248	.323	7.3	3	4.1	Gary Sheffield
Dansby Swanson	.251	.323	.424	94	.173	.319	5.0	3	2.5	Don Buddin
Travis d’Arnaud	.264	.325	.437	98	.173	.316	5.2	-2	1.7	Spud Davis
Adam Duvall	.228	.292	.472	96	.244	.265	4.8	6	1.6	Greg Vaughn
Braden Shewmake	.251	.305	.380	79	.129	.297	4.3	2	1.2	Rance Mulliniks
Austin Riley	.239	.297	.461	95	.222	.300	4.8	-3	1.2	Harlond Clift
Johan Camargo	.245	.299	.419	86	.174	.296	4.5	2	1.1	Scotti Madison
Ender Inciarte	.254	.316	.366	79	.112	.292	4.2	4	1.0	Eddie Milner
Tyler Flowers	.212	.310	.355	74	.143	.320	3.8	4	1.0	Tom Wilson
Cristian Pache	.238	.285	.412	80	.174	.304	3.9	6	0.9	Rob Ducey
Drew Waters	.235	.280	.389	73	.154	.339	3.8	12	0.6	Tim Raines
Adeiny Hechavarria	.259	.301	.371	75	.112	.306	4.1	0	0.4	Chris Clapinski
Justin Dean	.208	.286	.327	61	.119	.298	3.2	7	0.3	Tony Walker
Riley Unroe	.219	.291	.326	62	.107	.301	3.2	4	0.3	Doug Baker
Jack Mayfield	.242	.286	.412	81	.170	.286	4.2	-3	0.3	Kelly Heath
Alex Jackson	.198	.262	.395	69	.198	.286	3.5	-2	0.1	George Bjorkman
Abraham Almonte	.227	.317	.401	87	.173	.278	4.4	-7	0.1	Jeff DaVanon
Scott Schebler	.223	.296	.376	75	.153	.273	3.8	-2	0.0	Ryan McGuire
Matt Adams	.216	.270	.411	75	.195	.273	3.8	3	-0.1	John Milner
Charlie Culberson	.232	.274	.369	67	.137	.306	3.6	3	-0.2	Junior Spivey
William Contreras	.226	.272	.354	63	.128	.290	3.4	-2	-0.2	Bob Henley
Pablo Sandoval	.236	.291	.388	76	.151	.275	4.0	-4	-0.2	Geoff Blum
Shane Robinson	.240	.292	.318	61	.079	.269	3.4	0	-0.2	So Taguchi
Sal Giardina	.198	.271	.273	44	.076	.291	2.5	-1	-0.5	Steve Holm
Jack Lopez	.226	.259	.337	55	.112	.293	3.1	3	-0.5	Rick Morris
Nick Markakis	.256	.313	.374	80	.118	.302	4.2	-5	-0.6	Paul Waner
Logan Brown	.206	.245	.268	35	.062	.278	2.2	6	-0.6	Scott Hatteberg
CJ Alexander	.193	.274	.297	51	.104	.275	2.7	-1	-0.7	Pat Osborn
Ryan Casteel	.214	.262	.389	68	.175	.276	3.5	1	-0.8	Carmelo Martinez
Sean Kazmar Jr.	.226	.265	.326	55	.100	.254	3.0	4	-0.9	Todd Zeile
Riley Delgado	.234	.275	.281	47	.047	.264	2.7	1	-1.1	Mike Bordick
Jefrey Ramos	.213	.249	.345	54	.132	.269	2.9	4	-1.2	Bob Juday
Tyler Neslony	.214	.272	.327	57	.113	.285	2.9	0	-1.3	Ryan McGuire
Greyson Jenista	.200	.265	.335	56	.135	.293	2.7	3	-1.3	Andy Abad
Alejandro Salazar	.207	.231	.268	31	.061	.289	1.9	4	-2.0	Albenis Machado

Pitchers – Standard

Player	T	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP
Max Fried	L	27	12	8	4.03	29	26	145.0	140	65	16	53	146	3.84
Mike Soroka	R	23	8	5	3.81	21	21	120.3	119	51	14	30	95	3.99
Ian Anderson	R	23	9	6	4.15	24	24	121.3	104	56	16	63	144	4.23
Cole Hamels	L	37	6	5	4.46	19	19	105.0	102	52	16	39	97	4.66
Bryse Wilson	R	23	9	6	4.50	25	21	120.0	120	60	20	34	116	4.39
Mike Foltynewicz	R	29	9	7	4.77	24	24	126.3	124	67	21	47	118	4.71
Kyle Wright	R	25	10	8	4.75	28	25	125.0	124	66	18	54	121	4.56
Touki Toussaint	R	25	8	6	4.66	31	18	110.0	101	57	15	62	125	4.62
Sean Newcomb	L	28	7	6	4.59	32	17	100.0	94	51	15	44	97	4.57
Jeremy Walker	R	26	9	7	4.71	33	15	116.7	126	61	16	37	91	4.51
Nolan Kingham	R	24	9	8	5.06	26	26	151.3	171	85	24	44	93	5.04
Drew Smyly	L	32	4	3	4.70	21	18	97.7	96	51	18	36	104	4.61
Jhoulys Chacin	R	33	8	7	4.96	23	22	110.7	112	61	18	45	94	5.01
Hayden Deal	L	26	7	6	4.75	25	15	96.7	104	51	12	41	71	4.78
Will Smith	L	31	4	2	3.40	53	0	50.3	39	19	8	17	72	3.40
Tucker Davidson	L	25	7	6	4.84	21	21	93.0	91	50	10	56	85	4.72
A.J. Minter	L	27	6	3	3.51	58	1	56.3	48	22	6	23	71	3.38
Jasseel De La Cruz	R	24	9	8	5.04	25	23	116.0	118	65	16	60	95	5.04
Chris Martin	R	35	3	1	3.30	46	0	43.7	40	16	5	7	46	3.18
Kyle Muller	L	23	7	6	5.12	23	23	103.7	98	59	13	73	103	5.11
Shane Greene	R	32	3	2	3.79	63	0	59.3	53	25	8	20	60	4.07
Huascar Ynoa	R	23	6	5	5.03	27	17	96.7	96	54	15	51	94	5.02
Mark Melancon	R	36	4	2	3.81	51	0	49.7	51	21	6	13	43	3.92
Corbin Clouse	L	26	4	2	3.93	37	2	50.3	43	22	5	28	58	3.95
Luke Jackson	R	29	5	3	4.00	59	0	72.0	67	32	8	32	83	3.82
Philip Pfeifer	L	28	6	6	5.13	29	14	101.7	100	58	18	54	103	5.23
Darren O’Day	R	38	2	1	3.73	37	0	31.3	26	13	4	11	37	3.82
Robbie Erlin	L	30	2	2	4.96	37	7	78.0	87	43	14	15	66	4.47
Tyler Matzek	L	30	3	2	4.11	31	0	35.0	27	16	4	26	49	4.35
Emmanuel Ramirez	R	26	7	7	5.52	25	18	109.3	122	67	19	50	90	5.33
Brooks Wilson	R	25	3	3	5.19	20	7	59.0	65	34	9	25	42	5.16
Josh Tomlin	R	36	4	3	5.22	32	10	79.3	90	46	18	10	63	5.00
Tommy Milone	L	34	6	6	5.53	23	15	107.3	125	66	24	23	91	5.15
Claudio Custodio	R	30	4	4	5.00	31	4	63.0	67	35	9	25	46	4.91
Chad Sobotka	R	27	3	2	4.41	43	0	49.0	42	24	5	29	58	4.10
Grant Dayton	L	33	2	2	4.40	36	0	43.0	39	21	8	15	53	4.32
Felix Hernandez	R	35	6	6	5.66	19	19	90.7	100	57	18	32	70	5.51
Thomas Burrows	L	26	4	3	4.67	46	0	61.7	56	32	9	37	67	4.90
Patrick Weigel	R	26	3	3	5.56	20	14	56.7	59	35	10	34	50	5.67
Brandon White	R	26	4	3	4.67	37	0	54.0	51	28	6	34	51	4.79
Ben Rowen	R	32	3	3	5.19	38	5	69.3	78	40	14	14	51	5.11
Jacob Webb	R	27	3	3	4.89	49	1	49.7	46	27	8	30	52	5.11
Jason Creasy	R	29	2	2	5.13	33	0	40.3	42	23	7	16	37	4.94
Bradley Roney	R	28	0	0	5.26	30	0	39.3	33	23	6	30	50	5.06
Connor Johnstone	R	26	4	4	5.66	33	8	82.7	97	52	15	30	51	5.58

Pitchers – Advanced

Player	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BB%	K%	BABIP	ERA+	ERA-	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Max Fried	9.1	3.3	1.0	8.5%	23.4%	.308	112	89	2.6	Andy Pettitte
Mike Soroka	7.1	2.2	1.0	5.9%	18.8%	.290	119	84	2.4	Dave Rozema
Ian Anderson	10.7	4.7	1.2	11.9%	27.2%	.292	109	92	2.0	Charlie Lea
Cole Hamels	8.3	3.3	1.4	8.5%	21.2%	.290	101	99	1.4	Tom Glavine
Bryse Wilson	8.7	2.6	1.5	6.7%	22.7%	.298	100	100	1.3	Marty Janzen ??
Mike Foltynewicz	8.4	3.3	1.5	8.6%	21.6%	.290	95	106	1.3	Ed Wojna
Kyle Wright	8.7	3.9	1.3	9.8%	22.0%	.302	95	105	1.3	Steve Arlin
Touki Toussaint	10.2	5.1	1.2	12.5%	25.3%	.303	97	103	1.1	Bob Brown
Sean Newcomb	8.7	4.0	1.4	10.2%	22.4%	.287	99	102	1.1	Luke Walker
Jeremy Walker	7.0	2.9	1.2	7.3%	17.8%	.306	96	104	1.1	Benny Frey
Nolan Kingham	5.5	2.6	1.4	6.6%	14.0%	.296	89	112	1.1	Rick Wise
Drew Smyly	9.6	3.3	1.7	8.6%	24.7%	.299	96	104	1.0	Kent Mercker
Jhoulys Chacin	7.6	3.7	1.5	9.2%	19.3%	.290	91	110	1.0	Spec Shea
Hayden Deal	6.6	3.8	1.1	9.4%	16.4%	.303	95	105	1.0	Andy Hassler
Will Smith	12.9	3.0	1.4	8.3%	35.3%	.290	133	75	0.9	Arthur Rhodes
Tucker Davidson	8.2	5.4	1.0	13.2%	20.0%	.302	93	107	0.9	Jerry Reuss
A.J. Minter	11.3	3.7	1.0	9.6%	29.7%	.307	129	78	0.9	Shane Rawley
Jasseel De La Cruz	7.4	4.7	1.2	11.5%	18.2%	.295	90	112	0.8	Mike Torrez
Chris Martin	9.5	1.4	1.0	4.0%	26.0%	.299	137	73	0.7	Paul Quantrill
Kyle Muller	8.9	6.3	1.1	15.2%	21.4%	.297	88	113	0.7	Trevor Wilson
Shane Greene	9.1	3.0	1.2	8.0%	24.0%	.283	119	84	0.7	Jeff Tam
Huascar Ynoa	8.8	4.7	1.4	11.7%	21.6%	.300	90	111	0.6	Tim Byron
Mark Melancon	7.8	2.4	1.1	6.2%	20.4%	.306	119	84	0.6	Paul Quantrill
Corbin Clouse	10.4	5.0	0.9	12.7%	26.2%	.297	115	87	0.6	Marcelino Lopez
Luke Jackson	10.4	4.0	1.0	10.2%	26.4%	.316	113	88	0.6	Sean Green
Philip Pfeifer	9.1	4.8	1.6	11.8%	22.5%	.296	88	114	0.5	Eddie Oropesa
Darren O’Day	10.6	3.2	1.1	8.3%	28.0%	.286	121	83	0.4	Russ Springer
Robbie Erlin	7.6	1.7	1.6	4.5%	19.9%	.311	91	110	0.3	Chris Key
Tyler Matzek	12.6	6.7	1.0	16.4%	30.8%	.299	110	91	0.3	Tippy Martinez
Emmanuel Ramirez	7.4	4.1	1.6	10.0%	18.1%	.309	82	122	0.2	Sean White
Brooks Wilson	6.4	3.8	1.4	9.4%	15.8%	.301	87	115	0.2	Orval Grove
Josh Tomlin	7.1	1.1	2.0	3.0%	18.9%	.299	87	115	0.2	Gerry Staley
Tommy Milone	7.6	1.9	2.0	4.9%	19.5%	.312	82	122	0.2	Terry Mulholland
Claudio Custodio	6.6	3.6	1.3	9.0%	16.5%	.296	90	111	0.2	Jim Todd
Chad Sobotka	10.7	5.3	0.9	13.3%	26.6%	.301	103	97	0.2	Clay Bryant
Grant Dayton	11.1	3.1	1.7	8.2%	29.1%	.298	103	97	0.2	Mike Magnante
Felix Hernandez	6.9	3.2	1.8	7.9%	17.3%	.296	80	125	0.1	Pat Ahearne
Thomas Burrows	9.8	5.4	1.3	13.3%	24.1%	.292	97	103	0.1	Marcelino Lopez
Patrick Weigel	7.9	5.4	1.6	13.0%	19.1%	.297	81	123	0.1	Rube Fischer
Brandon White	8.5	5.7	1.0	13.8%	20.7%	.296	97	103	0.1	Hal Reniff
Ben Rowen	6.6	1.8	1.8	4.7%	17.1%	.296	87	115	0.1	Jose Bautista
Jacob Webb	9.4	5.4	1.4	13.4%	23.2%	.288	92	108	0.0	Bill Kelso
Jason Creasy	8.3	3.6	1.6	9.0%	20.8%	.302	88	113	-0.1	Steve Comer
Bradley Roney	11.4	6.9	1.4	16.6%	27.6%	.290	86	116	-0.2	Franklyn German
Connor Johnstone	5.6	3.3	1.6	8.0%	13.7%	.301	80	125	-0.2	Reid Santos

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.

Crowdsourcing MLB Broadcasters, Part 1: The East

Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.