New York Mets to Acquire Francisco Lindor, Carlos CarrascoDan Szymborskion January 7, 2021 at 7:03 pm

The quiet that had descended over baseball since San Diego’s flurry of trades was shattered by the Mets on Thursday as the team landed Francisco Lindor, the most-coveted player likely available this winter, in a trade with Cleveland. And since most good ideas become even better with a bit of fit and finish, the team also secured the services of Carlos Carrasco, adding crucial depth to the rotation. In return, the Mets are sending Amed Rosario, Andrés Giménez, Josh Wolf, and Isaiah Greene to play at the Jake.

At this point, it would have been more surprising if the Cleveland didn’t trade Lindor before the start of the 2021 season. This move was long expected, but the “where” has been one of baseball’s long-burning questions. Lindor’s 100 wRC+ in the abbreviated 2020 and his 114 wRC+ from 2019 were both well below the 130 he spiked in 2018, but at this point, we’re simply quibbling on degrees of superstardom. The Mets were serious second-tier contenders in the National League – San Diego and Los Angeles are in their own class — and even if you like Rosario and Giménez, you can’t pass up the opportunity to acquire a top-five shortstop in Lindor (he’s third in our Depth Charts, first in ZiPS).

ZiPS Projection – Francisco Lindor

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	OPS+	WAR
2021	.268	.335	.487	628	101	168	38	2	32	88	60	106	20	122	5.8
Percentile	BA	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	OPS+	WAR
90%	.286	.362	.581	618	110	177	44	3	44	105	70	84	32	153	8.5
80%	.279	.352	.541	621	107	173	42	2	39	99	67	93	27	141	7.4
70%	.274	.345	.518	624	103	171	40	2	36	93	64	98	23	133	6.7
60%	.272	.341	.503	626	102	170	39	2	34	91	62	103	21	128	6.3
50%	.268	.335	.487	628	101	168	38	2	32	88	60	106	20	122	5.8
40%	.263	.330	.471	630	99	166	37	2	30	85	58	111	18	117	5.3
30%	.263	.327	.459	632	97	166	36	2	28	83	56	115	16	113	4.9
20%	.260	.321	.439	635	96	165	34	1	26	79	53	121	15	106	4.3
10%	.252	.311	.414	638	92	161	32	1	23	74	50	129	12	97	3.4

Carlos Carrasco is as huge addition, as well, shoring up a pitching staff that lost Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman for 2020. Syndergaard’s still recovering from Tommy John surgery and while Stroman will return after accepting the team’s Qualifying Offer, adding Carrasco gives the Mets more room to breathe. Based on the current roster, they would have had to enter the year with a recovering Thor, Steven Matz, and David Peterson, or else commit to moving Seth Lugo or Robert Gsellman out of the bullpen on a permanent basis. An addition from outside was necessary, and with the exception of Trevor Bauer, Carrasco is as tempting an addition as there is out there. Cookie completed an impressive comeback season in 2020, putting up a 3.59 FIP in 12 starts despite the immense challenge of fighting leukemia in the midst of the biggest public health emergency in the US in over a century.

ZiPS Projection – Carlos Carrasco

Year	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WAR
2021	11	7	3.60	27	23	142.7	123	57	21	37	166	118	2.9

In return, Cleveland gets four Mets, including two (Rosario and Giménez) who will likely make up the team’s middle infield at the start of 2021, no doubt an attempt by the team to stay relevant in a juggernaut-less AL Central. Isaiah Greene and Josh Wolf are longer-term projects who won’t have an immediate impact. Wolf, a second-round draft pick for the Mets in 2019, is a raw, lanky pitcher with a fastball in the mid-90s. Greene is a very fast recent draftee, and the hope is almost certainly that he’ll be in center field in Cleveland in a few years.

It’s hard to avoid feeling generally underwhelmed by the players involved given that Cleveland is losing Lindor and Carrasco. But the return also reflects the fact that acquiring a year of Lindor isn’t the same thing as gaining two or three or four. The Dodgers gave the Red Sox a solid package for Mookie Betts, but they also escaped without giving up Dustin May, Josiah Gray, Tony Gonsolin, or Gavin Lux. Rosario and Giménez are both less risky for Cleveland than typical prospects are, similar to Alex Verdugo, and Wolf and Green represent the “moon shot.”

ZiPS Projection – Amed Rosario

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	OPS+	WAR
2021	.283	.316	.431	575	77	163	27	8	14	61	26	119	16	96	1.9
Percentile	BA	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	OPS+	WAR
90%	.299	.336	.527	571	82	171	33	11	25	75	30	94	26	124	3.9
80%	.293	.328	.476	573	80	168	30	9	19	68	28	104	20	110	2.9
70%	.289	.323	.465	574	78	166	29	9	18	64	27	108	18	106	2.6
60%	.287	.320	.442	575	77	165	28	8	15	63	26	115	17	100	2.1
50%	.283	.316	.431	575	77	163	27	8	14	61	26	119	16	96	1.9
40%	.280	.311	.424	576	75	161	27	7	14	60	25	122	15	93	1.7
30%	.276	.306	.406	577	74	159	25	7	12	58	24	126	14	87	1.2
20%	.273	.303	.393	578	72	158	24	6	11	56	23	132	12	83	0.9
10%	.263	.290	.367	581	71	153	23	5	9	54	20	142	11	73	0.2

ZiPS Projection – Andrés Giménez

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	OPS+	WAR
2021	.249	.305	.385	421	57	105	18	6	9	40	21	100	25	82	1.3
Percentile	BA	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	OPS+	WAR
90%	.266	.327	.482	417	60	111	21	9	17	48	25	83	42	111	2.9
80%	.261	.320	.433	418	59	109	20	8	12	44	24	87	33	98	2.2
70%	.255	.312	.412	420	58	107	19	7	11	42	22	92	30	90	1.7
60%	.252	.309	.402	420	57	106	19	7	10	41	22	97	27	87	1.5
50%	.249	.305	.385	421	57	105	18	6	9	40	21	100	25	82	1.3
40%	.247	.303	.382	421	56	104	18	6	9	39	21	102	23	81	1.2
30%	.244	.298	.365	422	55	103	17	5	8	38	20	105	22	75	0.9
20%	.241	.294	.352	423	54	102	16	5	7	37	19	111	19	71	0.7
10%	.235	.285	.334	425	53	100	16	4	6	35	17	118	16	64	0.2

If anything, this trade should indicate that the Mets new owner, Steve Cohen, ain’t playing around. For Mets fans, their large-market team finally acting like one rather than a mom-and-pop ice cream stand has to be absolutely delicious. For Cleveland fans, well, you really deserve better. We’ll have more on the deal, including long-term projections for those involved, a little later today.
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