Keeneland – 10/8/16 Contest Selections

Keeneland Contest Selections: these picks are for entertainment purposes and are provided by an analyst using them in a handicapping contest. The contest scores all selections based on the WPS payouts.  The intent is to find value and maximize the total payouts from the Win, Place, and Show pools not just “picking the winner”.  Good luck!

Race 3

7

6/1 ml. Pattern, distance, late speed.

Hard knocking 7YO comes here 2^nd off the bench and going turf to dirt.  Last two times skipper made the turf/dirt move this fella did respond well (went from a 79 on the green to a 90 on dirt in June of 2015 and went from an 80 on the green to a 95 on dirt earlier that year).  Has shown he can rally from off the pace late in dirt routes and needed that last off the break.  Although this is just a field of seven there are three others that tend to get out there early which could set the table for this old timer’s late run at this distance

Race 4

2

10/1 ml. Recency (drills), breeding, trainer.

Making the debut at 7/8ths is extremely difficult but in this modest crew with a couple of stiffs we will take a shot with this gal at this juicy price. All of the sibs with spins were multiple winners.  The Dam was 3/8 in dirt sprints with a high fig of 87 and the daddy hits at 11% with firsters.  One sib ran a 94 turf route, 99 on synthetic, and an 86 high fig dirt route.  Another sib was 3/14 in dirt sprints with a high fig of 100 and ran a 90 in a turf route.  There are seven consistent drills on tab with the third and fourth back breaking from the gate which might imply they liked her breaks and then just built in more fitness.  Trainer is 18% first out and 20% with 2YO.  Let’s give her a shot and see if she can take this weak crew at a nice price.

Keeneland Contest Selections

Race 5

3

8/1 ml. Recency, late speed, pattern.

Typical bulky field at Keeneland wide open race in a turf sprint. We will roll with this fella and the route/sprint angle.  We know he sprinted last out and was ok but that is a different configuration at Kentucky Downs.  This guy has very nice numbers in two turn turf races but also a 100 in a hybrid one turn mile at Belmont and a 100 going 7/8ths at Belmont on the lawn.  Trainer is 30% on the green, 30% off the 31-60 day break, and 30% in turf sprints.  We will give this guy a shot with his route stamina to sit back and mow them down late.

Keeneland Contest Selections

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Race 6

1

4/1 ml. Late speed, recency, pattern.

Unfortunately this horse will be bet but the bright side is that the 2 will likely get bet quite a bit more. We are looking for this 1 to come off the bench firing for a skipper that is 28% on a 31-60 day break and 20% in graded stakes.  Last year she was placed in some classy races and showed a little ability but didn’t put it together.  Last out at the Spa going turf/dirt she ran a 98 going 6.5F and was in a nice stalk/pounce position.  She’s gotten a little break for this and has six solid drills since.  Just looking for her to build a little bit on that last race and put in a real solid effort here.  The fav is quick but needs the lead and could get tangled up in a pace duel.

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Race 7

9

12/1 ml. Pattern, pace, distance, speed.

This race features Tepin but keep in mind this analysis presented here is not about just “picking the winner” as it’s about winning contests. We will roll with the 9 here and she should be about 15/1.  Mott’s horse could be a real challenge to Tepin but for some reason she disappeared after a career top which could be at least a curious concern.  This 9 is quite consistent and we think she might like the flat mile better than the 8.5F and 9F.  We also don’t see her fighting Tepin on the pace which would be a mistake.  Bottom line:  maybe she can sit mid pack and nail that place position and more if Tepin doesn’t fire.

Race 8

12

10/1 ml. Recency, pace, speed, distance, stamina.

This fella doesn’t appear to be anything special but he has shown some consistent improvement grinding away late as he goes out in distance. He handled the 7/8ths and then the two turns at 8.5F.  He isn’t flashy on figs but the reality is that none of them are yet around two turns.  Bulky field could be a mess late maybe this guy can just keep plugging away down the lane.

Keeneland Contest Selections

Race 9

3

20/1 ml. Recency, late speed, pattern.

This guy has been showing some fairly explosive late speed recently and he earned his spot in this G1 Shadwell Turf Mile. The biggest challenge might be the two turns coming from Toronto but he is very sharp right now and we are using him in contests as a huge bomb.  He ran a 104 last out just missing the mighty Tepin and he was bottled up for almost a furlong down the lane.  Let’s swing for the fences here and hope he gets a clean trip.  The horse coming from Arcadia has a ton of early and middle zip and a few others have solid pace as well so we might get a nice pace setup here on the firm green and let’s see what happens.

Race 10

1

10/1 ml. Recency, pattern, distance.

Big, bulky field of 2YO going two turns on dirt and none of them are standouts on figs. This 1 (Speedy A.P. part of an entry) has two spins under his belt and he has shown some decent improvement the second time out going to the one turn mile.  He didn’t throw in the towel and was plugging away late passing some horses and that was rated muddy that day.  In his debut he could have folded as well back in the rear but he picked it up late.  He might appreciate the added distance here and should be fit and ready to go with those two learning experiences.  We don’t see any great angles in this challenging race so for contest entries we will let this 1 show us if he can improve a bit again and grind away late around two turns here against a modest group.