The National League

In times of great uncertainty, I wonder if it isn’t natural to play it safe. To hew closely to the projections. To pick the Dodgers. Don’t get me wrong, there’s a lot to like about the National League besides Los Angeles, from teams actively trying to improve their rosters in order to win to tight races in the East and Central (here I should mention that the East teams, which have to square off against the Yankees and Rays as well as each other, face a considerably harder strength of schedule than do the Central squads). But while the NL boasts many very good clubs and good number of interesting ones, creating a good deal more parity than in the AL, the Dodgers are a beleaguered forecaster’s dream, appearing on all 22 ballots and netting 21 division winner votes. Their playoff odds prior to last night’s win, but after accounting for the new postseason format, stood at 95%; the then-second place Nationals checked in at 76.7%. Kershaw’s back may be balky, but the Dodgers are the class of the league.

Beyond them, the writers spread their new votes across a number of intriguing young teams, many of which have actively tried to improve. Four teams received no postseason votes, but the East and Central each had four that received at least one to win the division. Comparing this year’s ballot to last year’s is a little tricky, as the sample sizes and populations are different, but the Reds, in first place in the Central on 10 folks’ ballots and in the playoff field on 21, received two votes in 2019; the Padres got one vote last year and 17 this year. The Diamondbacks, then preparing to select an historic draft class, received no votes last season; they got 18 this season.

You won’t have seen our pre-expanded playoff predictions (best laid plans and what not), but the shifts in voting are interesting, especially when thinking about the NL’s relative parity. Possessed of just two Wild Card spots, our staff still liked the Reds and Braves to win their respective divisions, but the three additional spots really opened things up for the Padres and Diamondbacks — two teams with exciting farm systems on the cusp of real contention, though San Diego is further along — as well as the Brewers, who our Depth Charts view as pretty middling in a lot of places, even as they are excellent in spots. Arizona and San Diego picked up 13 and nine votes respectively, while Milwaukee snagged 10. The Diamondbacks’ and Padres’ surge speaks to both the presence of the Dodgers and the almost-there quality of their rosters; with eight playoff spots, almost-there might well be good enough. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ bump is a reminder that someone must place second in the Central. Beyond those three, the Cubs, Cardinals, Mets and Phillies combined for 15 more votes than they did in the traditional Wild Card world. Our writers even worked their way into a tie that would need breaking, setting St. Louis and Chicago on a (mathematical) collision course. How dramatic.