Does Your Favorite Team Still Have a Shot at the Playoffs?Craig Edwardson August 28, 2020 at 3:00 pm

When the season is just 60 games long, it can be hard to wrap your head around seemingly simple concepts like whether or not a team has a decent shot of making the playoffs. In a normal season, we’ve had four months to assess teams by the time we get to the trade deadline, and get two months after that to see them potentially reap the benefits of the moves they make. Halfway through this season, however, there hasn’t been much time for separation, and instead of having two months left to go, there’s just a single, month-long sprint to the finish. Add in the expanded playoffs, and there’s even more confusion regarding what constitutes a good shot at the playoffs. To attempt to provide some clarity, I’ll go through every team’s playoff odds in tiers and compare them to other teams in similar positions over the last half-dozen seasons.

First, here are the playoff odds for every team through Thursday with roughly a month to go in the season:

MLB Playoff Odds, Through 8/27

AL East	W	L	Make Playoffs
Yankees	16	11	98.20%
Rays	21	11	99.70%
Blue Jays	15	14	66.10%
Red Sox	10	21	4.30%
Orioles	14	16	10.20%
AL Central	W	L	Make Playoffs
Twins	20	12	99.20%
White Sox	19	12	98.40%
Indians	19	12	98.60%
Royals	12	19	6.20%
Tigers	13	16	11.00%
AL West	W	L	Make Playoffs
Astros	17	14	97.30%
Athletics	22	10	99.90%
Angels	10	22	4.40%
Rangers	11	19	3.90%
Mariners	13	20	2.60%
NL East	W	L	Make Playoffs
Braves	18	12	96.50%
Mets	13	16	61.40%
Phillies	12	14	56.20%
Nationals	11	17	18.70%
Marlins	14	12	32.70%
NL Central	W	L	Make Playoffs
Cubs	18	12	94.80%
Reds	13	17	46.60%
Brewers	13	17	48.20%
Cardinals	11	11	63.50%
Pirates	9	19	0.60%
NL West	W	L	Make Playoffs
Dodgers	24	9	100.00%
Padres	19	14	93.90%
Rockies	16	15	42.60%
Giants	15	18	30.40%
Diamondbacks	13	19	13.80%

And in graph form:

While percentages are helpful in getting a sense of a team’s chances, sometimes it can be better to frame those numbers in terms of real examples. Our playoff odds page goes back to the 2014 season, so we’ll look at the 2014-2019 seasons on September 1 and compare them to the end of the season. It is possible that having just one month of in-season data would (or should) make us less sure about a team’s present talent level compared to having five months’ worth in those other seasons, so if you want to mentally correct for even more randomness in this already wild season, feel free to do so.

Locks and Near-Locks (80%-100%)

Teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Oakland A’s, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres

We’ll start with the teams that have at least an 80% chance of making the playoffs this season. In the above group, every team’s chances are actually above 90%, which isn’t too different from the teams that have had odds above 80% historically. The table below shows the teams with at least an 80% playoff chance on September 1 since 2014:

Teams with 80% or Better Playoff Odds on September 1

Team	Year	Playoff Odds on 9/1	Made Playoffs?
Astros	2019	100.0%	Y
Braves	2019	100.0%	Y
Dodgers	2019	100.0%	Y
Yankees	2019	100.0%	Y
Angels	2014	100.0%	Y
Cardinals	2015	100.0%	Y
Royals	2015	100.0%	Y
Cubs	2016	100.0%	Y
Nationals	2016	100.0%	Y
Astros	2017	100.0%	Y
Dodgers	2017	100.0%	Y
Indians	2017	100.0%	Y
Nationals	2017	100.0%	Y
Indians	2018	100.0%	Y
Red Sox	2018	100.0%	Y
Yankees	2018	100.0%	Y
Pirates	2015	99.9%	Y
Red Sox	2017	99.9%	Y
Astros	2018	99.9%	Y
Nationals	2014	99.8%	Y
Cubs	2018	99.7%	Y
Twins	2019	99.6%	Y
Rangers	2016	99.6%	Y
Blue Jays	2015	99.4%	Y
Athletics	2014	99.2%	Y
Nationals	2019	98.9%	Y
Diamondbacks	2017	98.9%	Y
Dodgers	2014	98.4%	Y
Orioles	2014	98.3%	Y
Dodgers	2016	97.4%	Y
Cubs	2017	97.3%	Y
Indians	2016	97.0%	Y
Yankees	2015	96.7%	Y
Dodgers	2015	96.5%	Y
Cubs	2015	96.4%	Y
Astros	2015	94.7%	Y
Giants	2014	94.1%	Y
Blue Jays	2016	94.1%	Y
Cardinals	2019	89.5%	Y
Athletics	2018	88.4%	Y
Mets	2015	87.5%	Y
Red Sox	2016	86.6%	Y
Giants	2016	83.9%	Y
Dodgers	2018	83.9%	Y
Cardinals	2014	82.8%	Y
Tigers	2014	81.4%	Y
Average/Success Rate		96.5%	100%

While it might come as a surprise that none of the teams above blew their chances, given the small sample and the very high odds of half of those teams, all of them playing October baseball isn’t a huge statistical oddity. Plus, if we went back just a few more seasons, we’d see Atlanta, with playoff odds up over 95%, miss the playoffs. The 11 teams this season with 90%-plus odds aren’t guaranteed to make the postseason, but they’d have to really screw up over the next month to drop out of one of the 16 playoff spots entirely.

Good Chance (60%-80%)

Teams: St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets

There aren’t very many teams in the good-but-not-great chances area, but that mirrors what we’ve seen over the last few years as well:

Teams with 60%-80% Playoff Odds on September 1

Team	Year	Playoff Odds on 9/1	Made Playoffs?
Cubs	2019	76.2%	N
Yankees	2017	74.6%	Y
Rays	2019	73.3%	Y
Brewers	2018	71.0%	Y
Cardinals	2016	68.0%	N
Cardinals	2018	67.4%	N
Braves	2018	66.7%	Y
Indians	2019	66.4%	N
Royals	2014	65.1%	Y
Rockies	2017	60.6%	Y
Average/Success Rate		68.9%	60%

Last year’s Cubs team had the highest playoff odds on September 1 of any team to not make the playoffs since 2014. The Cardinals failed to make it twice in the last few years despite looked good heading into September, and last year’s Cleveland club also faltered. The Cardinals, Mets, and Blue Jays should probably make the playoffs, but there are a decent number of scenarios in which they don’t quite follow through.

50/50 (40%-60%)

Teams: Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies

There are 14 teams ahead of this quartet, so the odds would dictate that we should expect two of these clubs to make the playoffs.

Teams with 40%-60% Playoff Odds on September 1

Team	Year	Playoff Odds on 9/1	Made Playoffs?
Rangers	2015	54.8%	Y
Athletics	2019	52.2%	Y
Brewers	2014	50.7%	N
Tigers	2016	50.7%	N
Phillies	2018	42.6%	N
Twins	2017	41.9%	Y
Average/Success Rate		48.8%	50%

The Rockies bring up the rear here but even in that lower 40% range, one of the two teams above made the playoffs. So far we have 17 teams all with a very healthy shot of making the postseason.

Not Great (20%-40%)

Teams: San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins

There may be some doubt about what kind of chances these teams actually have with just a month to go. While whether to add or subtract at the deadline is a difficult proposition for teams at this level in normal years, perhaps history can help guide their view:

Teams with 20%-40% Playoff Odds on September 1

Team	Year	Playoff Odds on 9/1	Made Playoffs?
Diamondbacks	2018	37.4%	N
Mariners	2014	36.5%	N
Braves	2014	36.4%	N
Pirates	2014	36.2%	Y
Orioles	2016	31.7%	Y
Angels	2017	31.6%	N
Rockies	2018	27.6%	Y
Astros	2016	26.1%	N
Mets	2016	25.9%	Y
Brewers	2017	22.9%	N
Average/Success Rate		31.2%	40%

A 30% chance at the playoffs feels low to me, but seeing four of the last 10 and three of the last seven teams make the playoffs with those odds makes the chances feel a bit more real. One-in-three isn’t a long shot; it’s the odds of an average player reaching base in any given plate appearance.

Long Shots (5%-20%)

Teams: Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals

These are the teams we don’t expect to make the playoffs, but that also aren’t totally out of it. It’s a bit odd to see the defending World Champions here, but losing Anthony Rendon to free agency and Stephen Strasburg to injury are pretty big blows. They, along with the Diamondbacks, have a lot of games to make up to get back in the race. It’s not impossible, though, and one team bucked the odds last season:

Teams with 5%-20% Playoff Odds on September 1

Team	Year	Playoff Odds on 9/1	Made Playoffs?
Twins	2015	18.4%	N
Pirates	2016	17.9%	N
Angels	2015	16.9%	N
Cardinals	2017	16.9%	N
Orioles	2017	14.8%	N
Rays	2017	14.5%	N
Nationals	2015	13.9%	N
Brewers	2019	12.8%	Y
Mets	2019	12.8%	N
Mariners	2018	11.4%	N
Royals	2017	11.1%	N
Rays	2015	10.0%	N
Indians	2014	9.4%	N
Red Sox	2019	8.5%	N
Yankees	2014	6.9%	N
Indians	2015	6.9%	N
Rangers	2017	6.6%	N
Marlins	2016	6.1%	N
Giants	2015	5.7%	N
Yankees	2016	5.1%	N
Diamondbacks	2019	5.0%	N
Mariners	2017	5.0%	N
Average/Success Rate		10.8%	4.5%

The Milwaukee Brewers’ odds of making the playoffs weren’t great at the start of September last year, but they benefited from the Cubs’ struggles down the stretch and made the postseason. The teams in this category aren’t likely to make the playoffs, and under normal circumstances, moving pending free agents for younger players might make a lot of sense.

Not Their Year (0%-5%)

Teams: Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Pittsburgh Pirates

There have been 86 teams to enter the month of September with playoff odds under 5% since 2014, and none of them have ended up in the postseason. Of those 86 teams, only 11 were even at 0.5% or higher, so there aren’t a ton of direct examples for most of the teams in this tier this season. I should note that the 2011 Braves’ counterpart from the first group is the St. Louis Cardinals, who were under 5% at the beginning of September and managed to make the playoffs and then win the World Series.

I think there’s a pretty good argument that 20 of baseball’s 30 teams are definitely in the playoff hunt, with a handful of others that could potentially play their way back in to it. Only five teams are so far out of it as to start planning for 2021, though what that actually looks like at this trade deadline is unclear. We have about a third of the league that should be preparing for October, a third that’s still trying to get there, and a third that make intriguing trade partners for the rest.
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