Lamet, however, has not made as much progress. According to MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell, the 28-year-old righty has resumed playing catch but has not been cleared to throw off a mound. That doesn’t rule him out if the Padres advance past the Dodgers, but for now, he’s on the sidelines.

Thus, Clevinger will go up against the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler in Game 1. Nobody knows how close to 100% he’ll be, but it’s difficult to imagine him pitching deep into the game given his layoff, and it’s worth noting that even when he did pitch this year, his performance was a step down from his recent work with the Indians. In eight starts, he posted a 3.02 ERA but a 4.15 FIP and 0.7 WAR in 41.2 innings; by comparison, last year he pitched to a 2.71 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and 4.5 WAR, and put together a 3.32 FIP from 2017-19. Via Statcast, where he held batters to an average exit velocity of 86.4 mph last year, with a .270 xwOBA, this year, those numbers rose to 88.2 mph and .319; by percentiles, the exit velo represents a drop from the 91st to the 52nd, and the xwOBA from the 91st to the 35th. Note that Clevinger’s workload was interrupted not only by his previous biceps issue but also a three-week absence from the Indians after he violated team rules on a road trip, needed to be quarantined, and then was sent to the team’s alternate training site along with fellow violator Zach Plesac.

While Clevinger is set to start Game 1, manager Jayce Tingler has yet to announce the rest of the Padres rotation, though to be fair, counterpart Dave Roberts only went so far as to name Clayton Kershaw for Game 2, meaning that the Dodgers have used the same running order as in the Wild Card Series against the Brewers. The Padres started Chris Paddack in Game 1 against the Cardinals and Zach Davies in Game 2, but both were lit up, with the former allowing six runs in 2.1 innings, the latter four runs in two innings. Even assuming those two pitchers stay in line and Clevinger is able to return on three days of rest for Game 5, the Padres will still need to cobble together some kind of bullpen-based solution for Game 4, and no, it won’t be Garrett Richards, whom the team is keeping in the bullpen, or MacKenzie Gore, who did not make the roster (Ryan Weathers, a 20-year-old lefty who was their 2018 first-round pick and who like Gore has yet to debut in the majors, is on the roster). In Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, Craig Stammen started and pitched a scoreless 1.2 innings as the first of nine pitchers to combine for a shutout.