Hayes was good defensively in the majors, and between him and Luis Robert, I felt pretty good that this methodology successfully identified minor-league glove standouts without any scouting data involved. What ZiPS did not see coming was just how solid Hayes was with the bat in his rookie season. If I had voted this time around, he likely would have gotten a tally on the back of my Rookie of the Year ballot. Hayes is not a big dude, but his power was impressive where previously it had been a work in progress. Five homers in 95 major league plate appearances isn’t a huge body of work, but he was in the top 20 in exit velocity, between Kyle Schwarber and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. A .700 slugging percentage isn’t in the future, but both ZiPS and Statcast think that he hit the ball like a .500 slugger in 2020. ZiPS isn’t fully there in 2021, but he’s one to watch.

Or should I call Hayes “the” one to watch? The general theme of Pittsburgh’s offense is that although there are few gaping maws of performance in the lineup, there’s a real dearth of impact offensive talent. Being uninteresting is arguably even worse than being lousy, at least from the position of an analyst. There’s a reason the 1962 Mets are fondly remembered by history for losing lovably, and the 1962 Houston Colt .45s are not. Bryan Reynolds and Adam Frazier are competent regulars, but there’s little upside here, and they feel more at home for a risk-averse contender with a single, specific hole to fill, such as Houston, Atlanta or Cleveland (if that team still counts). Colin Moran‘s not a difference-maker, just Josh Bell‘s replacement as an uninspiring first baseman. As for Gregory Polanco, the best the Pirates can hope for is that he’s healthy, returns to 2017-18 form, and nets the team a couple of good prospects when he follows his former outfield teammates out of town. That Phillip Evans ranks so highly in this list should be a great deal of concern for the front office, though the de facto starting shortstop having a Pat Meares top comp is ZiPS being mean, not me.

Ownership refused to aggressively invest in the team when there was a chance to go over the top, so I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for investment when the team is lousy. At this point, it’s a waiting game to see if prospects like Oneil Cruz and Travis Swaggerty can make the roster before the Pirates panic about the prospect of having to pay Hayes actual money, though Cruz’s future remains uncertain.

Pitchers

When I ran the Pirates ZiPS, my biggest surprise was how the team as a whole didn’t project quite as poorly as I expected. Now, I’d be lying if I said that this wasn’t more a function of my complete lack of faith in the roster than any real fount of excellence, but there are actually a few things to like about this pitching staff. I’m specifically talking about the rotation, the main reason the Pirates are projected to be somewhere around 90 losses rather than challenging the century mark. I wouldn’t call this a good rotation, but the results may stay comfortably above replacement-level, which is at least something to look forward to.