2021 ZiPS Projections: Houston Astros

December 7, 2020

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Houston Astros.

ZiPS Projections

20212020

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Batters

If you want a reason why the Houston Astros are still a dangerous team and were just a game away from making the 2020 World Series despite a losing record in the regular season, look no further than the Big Numbers in the lineup. The Astros have a lot in common with their 2019 World Series opponents, the Washington Nationals, in that they’re both teams that have been serious contenders for a numbers of years, have some extremely talented young superstars, and are suffering depth issues due to veteran attrition. Even with the loss (as of now) of Michael Brantley and George Springer, there are still a lot of highlights on the club. And the weak points of the lineup are glaringly obvious.

One of those is left field, which is a good reminder that our Depth Charts today will not be the same as they are three months from now. I would be extremely surprised if Houston started the season with Chas McCormick and/or Ronnie Dawson in left. McCormick projects better than Dawson does, but as long as the team’s still trying to contend in 2021, this is definitely a Too Soon thing. It would be a little odd to give McCormick time playing time so quickly after Kyle Tucker had to fight for years for an extended shot! Nor am I convinced that Myles Straw actually ends up the starter in center next season, though it’s more plausible than the current situation in left.

ZiPS has been all-in on Tucker for a while, so his .268/.325/.512, 125 wRC+, 1.6 WAR 2020 performance in 58 games certainly wasn’t going to make ZiPS pessimistic. We’re already almost halfway through ZiPS Season (the Astros are the 14th team) and Tucker’s rest-of-career WAR currently stands second among right fielders, behind only Mookie Betts and ahead of Aaron Judge, Michael Conforto, and Trent Grisham (in that order). Of the teams that haven’t gone yet, only two remaining right fielders had better rest-of-career projections at this time last year, and both of them have dipped below Tucker since. Even if you still consider Christian Yelich a right fielder for the sake of discussion, he had an extremely disappointing 2020 and as he’s significantly older than Tucker, every year knocks off a greater percentage of his remaining career. And while there are many reasons to be excited about Jo Adell, his 2020 was one of the most miserable debuts I can remember for a legitimate elite prospect. But more on him when the Angels go.

I love watching Yordan Alvarez when he turns on a pitch, but I’m slightly more worried about him than ZiPS, which clearly isn’t too troubled by his largely missed season. But 2019 was a huge step forward for Alvarez and I think there’s some risk in losing what ought to have been a consolidation year for him. I think he’ll still be awesome, but that concern is floating there in the periphery of my brain. Still, even getting Alvarez back at not-quite-this-projection will help mitigate the losses of Brantley and Springer, assuming that the Astros don’t have big plans to replace them.

Alex Bregman‘s top comp is a player that you rarely hear talked about these days: Jim Ray Hart. The story of the 1960s Giants tends to revolve around Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, and Juan Marichal, and for obvious reasons. But during Hart’s prime years, from about 1964 to 1968, he was a key member of the lineup, good enough to finish in the top 20 in the majors in WAR among position players over that time period, a fraction of a win behind McCovey. A bad shoulder and struggles with alcoholism ended Hart’s run as a star well before he turned 30. He’ll probably be someone I feature in a future ZiPS Time Warp, but he’s an interesting and overlooked player in baseball history.

There’s a lot to like here, but the Astros have a tremendous amount of downside. Some bad injury luck to a star or two, and the depth chart thins out really fast.

Pitchers

It’s a testament to the skills of Houston’s front office that the pitching staff wasn’t a complete wreck in 2020 after losing both Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander. Of the nine pitchers to have a two-WAR season for the Astros from 2015, the year of their emergence, through 2019, only one, Lance McCullers Jr., will pitch for the team in 2021. That’s a lot of talent to replace under the best of circumstances. Picking up Zack Greinke without giving up any of the organization’s crown jewels was a real coup, but he can’t do it single-handedly.

ZiPS is very optimistic about McCullers and is a believer in Framber Valdez after his breakout 2020, so that at least gives the Astros three starting pitchers they can count on entering next season, which is arguably two more than they were able to last spring. Cristian Javier was effective in 2020, but his peripherals didn’t match his ERA. And ZiPS shares some of Steamer’s pessimism about Jose Urquidy, as even over a handful of starts, losing more than a third of your strikeouts is a pretty significant issue. Personally, I’m more optimistic.

Yes, there’s a Justin Verlander projection. I know he’s out for the season, but you’ve read the disclaimer on these ZiPS posts, haven’t you? If not, I’m legally entitled to eat anything I want directly out of your fridge. Losing a second consecutive season to injury may very well keep Verlander below 250 career wins; if you had told me that in December of 2019, I would have scoffed. The good news for Verlander is that he has the postseason highlights to bolster his Hall of Fame-worthy regular season performance; he’s 27th all-time in career WAR among pitchers, and I doubt he’ll have trouble getting past the Hall electors when the time comes. I ought to have my ballot then and I will be checking his box!

Both the bullpen and rotation really need depth added to them this offseason, as 2020 made it crystal-clear that the Astros don’t have any remaining margin of error over the A’s in the AL West. I think the bullpen needs at least two quality arms, while in rotation, at least one pitcher who can eat 180 league-averageish innings is the bare minimum the team ought to pursue.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here

Batters – Standard

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Alex Bregman	R	27	3B	649	546	97	153	38	3	29	95	89	86	8	2
Carlos Correa	R	26	SS	508	446	67	124	23	1	24	91	53	113	2	0
George Springer	R	31	CF	577	506	96	138	22	2	28	90	59	113	5	5
Kyle Tucker	L	24	RF	616	557	93	154	31	7	27	103	50	127	24	4
Jose Altuve	R	31	2B	587	529	89	153	27	2	23	71	50	89	13	7
Yordan Alvarez	L	24	DH	449	393	66	111	25	0	28	82	51	119	4	1
Michael Brantley	L	34	LF	557	505	73	151	31	2	16	70	44	67	7	2
Myles Straw	R	26	CF	478	430	55	109	14	4	2	28	43	94	32	7
Aledmys Diaz	R	30	SS	396	366	49	95	21	1	15	50	22	60	2	2
Abraham Toro	B	24	3B	540	482	68	111	24	3	16	61	41	117	5	4
Martin Maldonado	R	34	C	380	335	42	71	14	0	12	41	32	110	1	1
Jamie Ritchie	R	28	C	336	296	36	69	14	0	5	26	33	76	2	0
Garrett Stubbs	L	28	C	276	247	32	57	12	1	5	24	21	51	7	2
Alex De Goti	R	26	2B	532	485	57	113	22	2	12	49	35	121	5	5
Drew Ferguson	R	28	CF	462	404	55	93	17	3	10	40	47	125	15	6
Josh Reddick	L	34	RF	481	440	54	115	19	3	11	49	36	77	4	2
Yuli Gurriel	R	37	1B	528	487	62	126	28	2	16	65	28	56	2	2
Lorenzo Quintana	R	32	C	320	302	37	70	15	1	13	42	11	77	5	5
Scott Manea	R	25	C	353	313	36	61	11	0	10	32	24	90	0	2
Chas McCormick	R	26	LF	468	415	51	101	13	4	9	40	43	80	13	4
Dustin Garneau	R	33	C	230	202	23	39	8	1	7	27	20	66	0	1
Taylor Jones	R	27	1B	472	421	54	95	19	1	16	54	40	131	0	1
Michael Papierski	B	25	C	365	318	35	54	8	1	6	23	40	101	2	3
Jeremy Pena	R	23	SS	522	476	53	110	17	5	9	40	33	113	15	9
Chuckie Robinson	R	26	C	412	386	37	76	16	1	10	37	21	132	5	2
Luis Santana	R	21	2B	310	282	30	64	11	0	4	21	19	50	5	4
Stephen Wrenn	R	26	RF	503	457	52	97	17	4	10	42	35	154	22	6
Colton Shaver	R	25	3B	477	424	53	84	18	1	19	56	42	161	1	3
J.J. Matijevic	L	25	1B	421	389	48	84	20	2	17	53	27	148	9	6
Jake Meyers	R	25	CF	498	453	48	91	20	2	10	39	35	134	9	9
Ronnie Dawson	L	26	CF	515	465	57	94	18	2	16	51	39	180	15	12
Freudis Nova	R	21	SS	422	405	42	89	17	0	12	42	15	114	15	13
Osvaldo Duarte	R	25	SS	504	471	46	92	14	5	10	39	28	173	14	12
Corey Julks	R	25	LF	483	436	45	92	17	2	7	33	41	133	12	8
Bryan De La Cruz	R	24	RF	527	484	53	110	21	4	8	42	36	123	9	7

Batters – Advanced

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	ISO	BABIP	RC/27	Def	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Alex Bregman	.280	.387	.520	143	.240	.288	7.6	0	5.9	Jim Ray Hart
Carlos Correa	.278	.354	.496	127	.217	.324	6.6	1	3.9	Rico Petrocelli
George Springer	.273	.355	.490	126	.217	.301	6.4	0	3.9	Moises Alou
Kyle Tucker	.276	.338	.503	124	.226	.315	6.7	5	3.9	Von Hayes
Jose Altuve	.289	.355	.478	123	.189	.312	6.4	-3	3.6	Bobby Avila
Yordan Alvarez	.282	.365	.560	146	.277	.337	7.8	0	3.3	Kent Hrbek
Michael Brantley	.299	.357	.463	121	.164	.320	6.4	2	2.9	Al Oliver
Myles Straw	.253	.321	.319	75	.065	.320	4.2	6	1.3	Kevin Rhomberg
Aledmys Diaz	.260	.306	.445	100	.186	.275	4.9	-3	1.3	Eric McNair
Abraham Toro	.230	.307	.392	88	.162	.272	4.2	0	1.1	Rey Quinones
Martin Maldonado	.212	.295	.361	77	.149	.277	3.6	3	1.0	Keith McDonald
Jamie Ritchie	.233	.318	.331	77	.098	.298	3.8	2	0.9	Mike Fitzgerald
Garrett Stubbs	.231	.296	.348	74	.117	.272	3.7	4	0.8	Doug Newstrom
Alex De Goti	.233	.289	.361	75	.128	.287	3.6	6	0.7	Tripper Johnson
Drew Ferguson	.230	.321	.361	85	.131	.309	4.1	-3	0.7	James Mouton
Josh Reddick	.261	.314	.393	91	.132	.295	4.5	1	0.6	Jim Eisenreich
Yuli Gurriel	.259	.303	.423	94	.164	.265	4.6	1	0.5	Ted Simmons
Lorenzo Quintana	.232	.272	.417	83	.185	.269	3.8	-1	0.5	Izzy Molina
Scott Manea	.195	.283	.326	65	.131	.239	3.0	3	0.4	Rob Bowen
Chas McCormick	.243	.316	.359	83	.116	.282	4.2	1	0.3	Jermaine Clark
Dustin Garneau	.193	.276	.347	68	.153	.248	3.1	2	0.3	Henry Blanco
Taylor Jones	.226	.299	.390	85	.164	.288	4.0	2	0.1	Nick Leach
Michael Papierski	.170	.274	.258	46	.088	.227	2.2	5	-0.2	Jose Molina
Jeremy Pena	.231	.289	.345	71	.113	.285	3.4	-6	-0.3	Hector Luna
Chuckie Robinson	.197	.245	.321	52	.124	.270	2.7	3	-0.3	Alan Probst
Luis Santana	.227	.294	.309	64	.082	.263	3.1	-2	-0.4	Jodam Rivera
Stephen Wrenn	.212	.274	.333	64	.120	.297	3.3	5	-0.5	Luis Terrero
Colton Shaver	.198	.279	.380	76	.182	.266	3.4	-8	-0.6	Brad Seitzer
J.J. Matijevic	.216	.268	.409	80	.193	.299	3.7	-2	-0.7	Tim Unroe
Jake Meyers	.201	.266	.320	58	.119	.262	2.7	2	-0.7	Edward Lowery
Ronnie Dawson	.202	.274	.353	69	.151	.290	3.1	-7	-1.0	Randy Salava
Freudis Nova	.220	.249	.351	60	.131	.276	2.7	-7	-1.4	Diory Hernandez
Osvaldo Duarte	.195	.245	.310	49	.115	.285	2.3	-6	-1.9	Dennis Walker
Corey Julks	.211	.284	.307	61	.096	.287	2.9	-7	-1.9	Bobby Malek
Bryan De La Cruz	.227	.283	.337	68	.110	.289	3.2	-10	-2.1	Darnell McDonald

Pitchers – Standard

Player	T	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP
Justin Verlander	R	38	11	7	3.35	23	23	145.0	113	54	24	33	179	3.63
Zack Greinke	R	37	11	8	3.74	29	29	171.0	158	71	28	33	168	3.98
Lance McCullers Jr.	R	27	8	6	3.91	22	21	112.7	101	49	14	44	124	3.98
Framber Valdez	L	27	9	8	4.11	30	18	124.7	112	57	14	59	131	4.13
Ryan Pressly	R	32	4	2	3.02	58	0	56.7	46	19	6	16	72	2.97
Brad Peacock	R	33	6	5	4.24	31	13	85.0	75	40	14	35	98	4.39
Roberto Osuna	R	26	4	2	3.12	54	0	52.0	44	18	7	9	56	3.47
Josh James	R	28	4	3	4.14	33	10	76.0	62	35	10	43	99	4.14
Brooks Raley	L	33	6	6	4.76	24	17	104.0	106	55	15	47	85	4.98
Jose Urquidy	R	26	6	6	4.83	25	21	117.3	120	63	24	33	106	4.98
Brett Conine	R	24	7	7	4.82	29	17	117.7	119	63	20	47	106	4.96
Aaron Sanchez	R	28	7	8	4.95	24	24	120.0	122	66	17	64	105	5.05
Luis Garcia	R	24	6	6	4.71	22	15	86.0	80	45	12	54	91	4.94
Austin Pruitt	R	31	5	4	4.55	29	8	87.0	93	44	14	22	71	4.50
Tyler Ivey	R	25	3	3	4.74	21	16	79.7	77	42	14	32	81	4.79
Cionel Perez	L	25	3	3	4.50	29	12	74.0	71	37	10	36	72	4.57
Hector Velazquez	R	32	3	3	4.56	32	10	73.0	74	37	11	30	60	4.89
Bryan Abreu	R	24	4	4	4.72	28	14	80.0	69	42	11	58	94	5.02
Nivaldo Rodriguez	R	24	5	5	4.89	21	12	81.0	82	44	13	36	69	5.08
Rogelio Armenteros	R	27	6	7	5.15	23	20	101.3	104	58	21	42	99	5.31
Enoli Paredes	R	25	5	5	4.84	32	8	74.3	65	40	12	46	87	5.00
Fernando Rodney	R	44	3	3	4.14	54	0	50.0	44	23	6	26	55	4.22
Blake Taylor	L	25	4	4	4.76	42	6	68.0	63	36	7	46	64	4.89
Kent Emanuel	L	29	5	5	5.10	26	10	90.0	99	51	16	27	68	5.05
Humberto Castellanos	R	23	3	3	4.24	33	0	63.7	66	30	8	17	48	4.30
Joe Smith	R	37	3	2	4.00	41	0	36.0	34	16	5	9	34	3.93
Brandon Bielak	R	25	7	8	5.33	25	19	103.0	109	61	20	48	89	5.55
Cristian Javier	R	24	6	7	5.33	30	20	109.7	98	65	24	67	134	5.58
Chris Devenski	R	30	3	3	4.47	48	1	54.3	51	27	11	17	60	4.65
Francis Martes	R	25	0	0	5.14	4	4	14.0	13	8	2	10	16	5.11
Jonathan Bermudez	L	25	3	4	5.29	18	7	51.0	51	30	9	28	48	5.42
Forrest Whitley	R	23	5	6	5.49	19	16	60.7	57	37	12	42	69	5.65
Dean Deetz	R	27	2	2	4.94	29	3	47.3	40	26	7	36	60	5.04
Chad Donato	R	26	7	9	5.50	24	17	103.0	112	63	21	45	86	5.65
Joe Biagini	R	31	2	2	4.69	53	0	55.7	57	29	8	24	49	4.69
Kit Scheetz	L	27	1	1	4.70	37	0	59.3	59	31	10	23	55	4.83
Ryan Hartman	L	27	5	7	5.59	23	17	103.0	112	64	23	38	90	5.62
Andre Scrubb	R	26	3	3	5.05	46	1	62.3	57	35	8	48	66	5.19
Ronel Blanco	R	27	3	4	5.43	31	4	58.0	58	35	9	40	54	5.56
Ralph Garza Jr.	R	27	4	4	4.96	41	0	69.0	68	38	10	36	65	4.92
Layne Henderson	R	25	3	3	5.21	23	0	38.0	36	22	5	30	39	5.44
Gabriel Valdez	R	25	3	5	6.52	17	6	49.7	58	36	11	29	35	6.58
Colin McKee	R	27	3	4	6.10	37	0	48.7	46	33	10	43	57	6.34
Chase De Jong	R	27	4	7	6.50	21	18	98.3	118	71	24	40	63	6.44
Carson LaRue	R	25	5	8	6.68	23	19	98.3	119	73	26	45	66	6.83

Pitchers – Advanced

Player	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BB%	K%	BABIP	ERA+	ERA-	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Justin Verlander	11.1	2.0	1.5	5.7%	31.1%	.265	131	77	3.5	Dennis Martinez
Zack Greinke	8.8	1.7	1.5	4.7%	24.2%	.281	117	85	3.4	Claude Passeau
Lance McCullers Jr.	9.9	3.5	1.1	9.1%	25.6%	.296	112	89	2.0	Tim Leary
Framber Valdez	9.5	4.3	1.0	10.8%	24.1%	.294	106	94	1.8	Jim Rooker
Ryan Pressly	11.4	2.5	1.0	6.9%	31.2%	.296	145	69	1.3	Mark Eichhorn
Brad Peacock	10.4	3.7	1.5	9.6%	26.9%	.286	103	97	1.2	Michael LaCoss
Roberto Osuna	9.7	1.6	1.2	4.3%	26.8%	.276	140	71	1.1	Rawly Eastwick
Josh James	11.7	5.1	1.2	12.9%	29.7%	.294	106	95	1.0	Clay Bryant
Brooks Raley	7.4	4.1	1.3	10.1%	18.3%	.294	92	109	0.9	Bill Hallahan
Jose Urquidy	8.1	2.5	1.8	6.6%	21.2%	.287	91	110	0.9	Charlie Corbell
Brett Conine	8.1	3.6	1.5	9.1%	20.5%	.293	91	110	0.9	Ed Linke
Aaron Sanchez	7.9	4.8	1.3	11.8%	19.3%	.299	88	113	0.9	Brett Laxton
Luis Garcia	9.5	5.7	1.3	13.8%	23.3%	.297	93	108	0.8	Dick Ruthven
Austin Pruitt	7.3	2.3	1.4	5.9%	19.0%	.300	96	104	0.7	Bruce Dal Canton
Tyler Ivey	9.2	3.6	1.6	9.2%	23.3%	.292	92	108	0.7	Roger McDowell
Cionel Perez	8.8	4.4	1.2	11.0%	22.0%	.296	97	103	0.7	Gerry Arrigo
Hector Velazquez	7.4	3.7	1.4	9.3%	18.6%	.290	96	104	0.6	Hal Jeffcoat
Bryan Abreu	10.6	6.5	1.2	15.8%	25.5%	.291	93	108	0.6	Bob Brown
Nivaldo Rodriguez	7.7	4.0	1.4	10.0%	19.2%	.291	89	112	0.5	Gordon Rhodes
Rogelio Armenteros	8.8	3.7	1.9	9.4%	22.1%	.295	85	118	0.5	Steve Cummings
Enoli Paredes	10.5	5.6	1.5	13.8%	26.0%	.288	90	111	0.4	Heathcliff Slocumb
Fernando Rodney	9.9	4.7	1.1	11.9%	25.1%	.292	106	95	0.3	Joe Heving
Blake Taylor	8.5	6.1	0.9	14.7%	20.4%	.293	92	109	0.3	Luke Walker
Kent Emanuel	6.8	2.7	1.6	6.9%	17.3%	.299	86	117	0.3	Mike Caldwell
Humberto Castellanos	6.8	2.4	1.1	6.2%	17.6%	.296	103	97	0.3	Bill Castro
Joe Smith	8.5	2.3	1.3	6.0%	22.8%	.290	109	91	0.3	Clay Carroll
Brandon Bielak	7.8	4.2	1.7	10.3%	19.1%	.295	82	122	0.2	Sean White
Cristian Javier	11.0	5.5	2.0	13.6%	27.2%	.282	82	122	0.2	Bart Evans
Chris Devenski	9.9	2.8	1.8	7.4%	26.2%	.288	98	102	0.2	Brad Havens
Francis Martes	10.3	6.4	1.3	15.4%	24.6%	.306	85	118	0.1	Ben Fritz
Jonathan Bermudez	8.5	4.9	1.6	12.1%	20.8%	.294	83	121	0.1	Ted Bowsfield
Forrest Whitley	10.2	6.2	1.8	15.1%	24.7%	.292	80	125	0.0	Jerry Stephenson
Dean Deetz	11.4	6.8	1.3	16.5%	27.5%	.295	88	113	0.0	Clay Bryant
Chad Donato	7.5	3.9	1.8	9.7%	18.5%	.297	79	126	0.0	Sean White
Joe Biagini	7.9	3.9	1.3	9.8%	19.9%	.301	93	107	0.0	Jim Coates
Kit Scheetz	8.3	3.5	1.5	8.9%	21.2%	.292	93	107	0.0	Gabe Gonzalez
Ryan Hartman	7.9	3.3	2.0	8.3%	19.7%	.296	78	128	-0.1	Heath Phillips
Andre Scrubb	9.5	6.9	1.2	16.5%	22.7%	.295	87	116	-0.2	Hal Reniff
Ronel Blanco	8.4	6.2	1.4	14.8%	19.9%	.297	81	124	-0.2	Ken Wright
Ralph Garza Jr.	8.5	4.7	1.3	11.6%	21.0%	.297	88	113	-0.2	Barry Hertzler
Layne Henderson	9.2	7.1	1.2	16.7%	21.7%	.301	84	119	-0.2	Dave Cole
Gabriel Valdez	6.3	5.3	2.0	12.3%	14.9%	.299	67	149	-0.7	Jason Szuminski
Colin McKee	10.5	8.0	1.8	18.3%	24.3%	.295	72	139	-0.8	Johnny Humphries
Chase De Jong	5.8	3.7	2.2	8.9%	14.0%	.296	67	149	-1.0	Pat Ahearne
Carson LaRue	6.0	4.1	2.4	9.8%	14.4%	.296	65	153	-1.2	Brian Ahern

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.

2021 ZiPS Projections: Houston Astroson December 7, 2020 at 2:00 pm

2021 ZiPS Projections: Houston Astros

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