2021 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigers

December 15, 2020

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers.

ZiPS Projections

20212020

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

BAL	CHW	HOU
BOS	CLE	LAA
NYY	DET	OAK
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Batters

Let’s get the bad news out of the way first: the Tigers are quite clearly the worst team in the AL Central. They may not be the worst team in baseball — the Orioles, Rangers, and Pirates will likely have something to say about that — but the Royals have made enough short-term improvements and Cleveland isn’t selling off fast enough to drop down into Tigers-territory.

But rather than belabor the point (none of this is remotely controversial), we can focus on some of the green shoots that sprouted during the bizarre 2020 season. These developments are extremely important because while Detroit has an array of quality pitching prospects, their lumber doesn’t match up. Where spot-fillers such as Jonathan Schoop, Austin Romine, Jordy Mercer, and C.J. Cron have been useful in recent years when the cupboard was empty, those types aren’t as necessary this time around. There are few possible stars among this group, but there are several guys who are at least interesting, kind of like the O’s and their supply of Quad-A 1B/DH types.

Of all the players who needed 2020 to work out, Jeimer Candelario was near the top of the list. After a promising 2018 season, he struggled in 2019, even suffering a well-deserved demotion to Triple-A Toledo for a spell. In 2020, he didn’t look like the batter who failed to slug even .350 the year before, instead hitting .297/.369/.503 in 52 games. The batting average near .300 is unlikely to persist thanks to a .372 BABIP, but he improved on a broad enough basis that he’s an actual option to move over to first, which would have seemed ludicrous a year ago. Candelario’s not particularly young, and he’s unlikely to bust out a 40-homer season or anything like that, but you can at least write him into the lineup using pen now.

You should be skeptical of Willi Castro‘s .349 2020 batting average for the same reason as Candelario’s: he’s simply not going to maintain a .448 BABIP. But he was a high-BABIP player in the minors and when you combine that with his major league performance, ZiPS thinks he’s likely a .340-.350 BABIP guy. That’s enough where he doesn’t need to have a ton of power or walks or defense to be a plus.

Don’t be scared by the Jeff Mathis offensive comp for Jake Rogers; there was a time when Mathis was considered an offensive prospect, as odd as that seems now. Mickey Tettleton was actually known as a glove guy in the minors! I’d like to see the Tigers prioritize playing time for him over Grayson Greiner or Eric Haase as he’s the only one with a good shot to be a legitimate starter for a few seasons. Rogers is no slouch defensively, and I’d be very comfortable letting him catch the team’s young pitching. Similarly, I’d like to see Zack Short get a chance to stick in a utility role rather than signing a veteran.

Pitchers

From a player development standpoint, 2020 was a real drag on Detroit’s game plan. With a stable of high-minors pitching prospects who needed innings more than anything, there was a lot of playing time lost that can never be recovered. Between playing their veterans (Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull) and seeing if Michael Fulmer could still pitch, the Tigers didn’t have enough starts for everyone who would have benefited. And when Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal struggled, there was nowhere to demote them to where they could still actually pitch in games.

I was actually sort of surprised the Tigers tendered Fulmer a contract for 2021. It’s tricky to see how he fits on the roster if neither Boyd nor Turnbull is traded this winter. There are a lot of players the Tigers need to look at, and Fulmer was awful in 2020 even if you give him the benefit of every statistical doubt. He was missing velocity in his return, and it’s hard to envision him being a high-leverage reliever. Nor would exiling him to a mop-up role recommend him to possible suitors.

Even with Skubal and Mize taking hits to their projections because of 2020, the rotation projects as broadly middling enough that the Tigers could be a Wild Card contender if the lineup and bullpen were up to snuff. The lineup’s not there yet, and the bullpen really isn’t either, with our Depth Charts currently ranking the group as the worst in baseball. If you were hoping for ZiPS to give a sunnier estimate than Steamer, you’re going to mostly be disappointed. ZiPS sees Joe Jimenez are a middle-tier reliever and thinks Daniel Norris will also be fine in a late-inning role, but after those two, well, at least the Tigers won’t have a lot of leads to protect in 2021.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Jeimer Candelario	B	27	3B	580	516	72	130	30	4	20	72	56	143	3	1
Willi Castro	B	24	SS	605	556	73	154	27	7	16	72	31	140	10	4
Jonathan Schoop	R	29	2B	537	502	71	135	24	2	24	75	22	114	1	0
C.J. Cron	R	31	1B	475	426	57	108	22	1	27	76	35	112	1	1
Jake Rogers	R	26	C	440	390	50	79	15	2	16	53	37	137	4	2
Zack Short	R	26	SS	470	403	53	88	20	3	12	43	59	126	8	5
JaCoby Jones	R	29	CF	432	392	55	92	23	3	14	43	28	129	9	4
Isaac Paredes	R	22	3B	530	482	53	123	22	2	13	51	38	88	3	2
Victor Reyes	B	26	RF	564	536	71	149	26	6	10	50	23	111	17	6
Niko Goodrum	B	29	SS	492	445	54	103	24	4	14	56	41	150	14	4
Kennys Vargas	B	30	1B	497	446	57	106	19	1	22	64	44	128	0	0
Riley Greene	L	20	CF	528	485	54	106	15	3	16	53	31	165	10	0
Eric Haase	R	28	C	398	364	45	74	12	2	17	52	26	149	1	1
Kade Scivicque	R	28	C	341	321	34	78	16	1	8	34	15	71	0	0
Daniel Pinero	R	27	3B	475	429	50	95	21	2	12	49	37	120	4	4
Kody Clemens	L	25	2B	504	460	49	101	23	4	12	55	34	134	8	3
Austin Romine	R	32	C	306	289	30	72	13	0	7	38	12	82	0	0
Dawel Lugo	R	26	3B	547	522	58	135	24	4	9	53	18	89	4	2
Harold Castro	L	27	2B	441	418	41	115	15	3	5	36	16	88	5	5
Jon Rosoff	L	26	C	226	209	19	48	7	1	1	14	13	37	4	3
Miguel Cabrera	R	38	DH	481	434	43	111	13	0	16	64	41	101	1	0
Grayson Greiner	R	28	C	310	282	32	55	11	1	10	37	22	96	1	0
Travis Demeritte	R	26	RF	469	419	58	91	20	3	16	53	43	158	4	3
Sergio Alcantara	B	24	SS	423	385	40	86	11	3	4	25	32	91	6	4
Christin Stewart	L	27	LF	500	445	51	100	21	2	19	63	43	136	1	0
Brandon Dixon	R	29	1B	400	373	40	86	21	3	12	50	21	120	6	3
Troy Stokes Jr.	R	25	LF	500	441	56	93	20	3	14	48	47	142	16	6
Bryant Packard	L	23	LF	489	444	54	100	21	0	14	48	39	141	7	3
Daz Cameron	R	24	CF	506	458	52	98	19	6	10	45	38	149	15	7
Jorge Bonifacio	R	28	LF	431	395	47	90	17	2	13	54	29	115	2	2
Chad Sedio	L	27	LF	404	370	38	77	15	3	7	36	17	110	1	1
Jacob Robson	L	26	LF	502	451	55	106	20	3	11	47	43	146	17	9
Cole Peterson	L	25	SS	478	449	40	102	14	3	1	27	19	75	17	9
Danny Woodrow	L	26	LF	474	432	45	99	13	3	1	27	32	106	17	8
Parker Meadows	L	21	CF	412	379	39	75	12	1	10	36	25	120	9	8
Akil Baddoo	L	22	CF	332	301	35	62	10	4	7	27	27	90	11	6
Joey Morgan	R	24	C	316	285	25	50	9	1	5	20	22	93	0	0
Brock Deatherage	L	25	CF	409	386	39	80	10	6	7	35	16	134	22	9
Derek Hill	R	25	CF	402	368	42	73	11	3	7	30	24	136	16	10
Brady Policelli	R	26	C	386	357	37	75	15	4	8	35	23	100	10	7
Luke Burch	L	27	LF	355	331	27	67	6	1	0	16	16	123	9	6

Batters – Advanced

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	ISO	BABIP	RC/27	Def	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Jeimer Candelario	.252	.331	.442	105	.190	.312	5.3	6	3.0	Travis Fryman
Willi Castro	.277	.322	.437	101	.160	.345	5.3	-3	2.3	Dale Sveum
Jonathan Schoop	.269	.309	.468	104	.199	.305	5.4	-2	2.0	Jeff Kent
C.J. Cron	.254	.324	.500	117	.246	.282	5.8	1	1.9	Ivan Cruz
Jake Rogers	.203	.281	.374	74	.172	.266	3.6	10	1.5	Jeff Mathis
Zack Short	.218	.324	.372	87	.154	.287	4.1	0	1.3	Tony Schrager
JaCoby Jones	.235	.299	.416	89	.181	.313	4.4	3	1.2	Brad Snyder ????
Isaac Paredes	.255	.315	.390	88	.135	.289	4.4	1	1.2	Willy Aybar
Victor Reyes	.278	.309	.405	90	.127	.335	4.8	5	1.0	Willie McGee
Niko Goodrum	.231	.297	.398	84	.166	.317	4.3	-2	0.9	Joe Redfield
Kennys Vargas	.238	.308	.433	96	.195	.284	4.7	1	0.6	Ron Wright
Riley Greene	.219	.275	.361	69	.142	.296	3.6	6	0.5	Mel Hall
Eric Haase	.203	.259	.387	70	.184	.288	3.4	3	0.5	Louis Santangelo
Kade Scivicque	.243	.282	.374	74	.131	.289	3.8	0	0.4	Bob Melvin
Daniel Pinero	.221	.288	.364	74	.142	.279	3.5	3	0.3	Ryan Barthelemy
Kody Clemens	.220	.276	.365	70	.146	.283	3.5	4	0.3	Doug Saunders
Austin Romine	.249	.279	.367	71	.118	.325	3.7	1	0.3	Bob Melvin
Dawel Lugo	.259	.285	.372	75	.113	.297	3.9	3	0.3	Ricky Bell
Harold Castro	.275	.301	.361	77	.086	.338	3.9	0	0.2	Manuel Lee
Jon Rosoff	.230	.283	.287	54	.057	.275	2.7	4	0.1	Craig Mayes
Miguel Cabrera	.256	.320	.396	91	.141	.300	4.6	0	0.3	Ernie Young
Grayson Greiner	.195	.259	.348	61	.152	.256	3.1	1	0.0	Mike Ryan
Travis Demeritte	.217	.295	.394	83	.177	.306	4.0	-1	-0.1	Jack Voigt
Sergio Alcantara	.223	.283	.299	57	.075	.283	2.9	4	-0.2	Danny Bravo
Christin Stewart	.225	.300	.409	88	.184	.279	4.3	-5	-0.2	Todd Mensik
Brandon Dixon	.231	.275	.399	78	.169	.307	3.9	2	-0.3	Archi Cianfrocco
Troy Stokes Jr.	.211	.297	.365	77	.154	.277	3.8	-1	-0.3	Reid Gorecki
Bryant Packard	.225	.290	.367	75	.142	.298	3.7	-5	-0.9	Richie Robnett
Daz Cameron	.214	.285	.347	69	.133	.294	3.4	-2	-0.4	Mike Daniel
Jorge Bonifacio	.228	.285	.380	77	.152	.288	3.7	-1	-0.4	Bill McCarthy
Chad Sedio	.208	.266	.322	57	.114	.277	2.9	8	-0.5	Jason Aspito
Jacob Robson	.235	.303	.366	79	.131	.323	3.9	-4	-0.7	Vernon Thomas
Cole Peterson	.227	.259	.278	45	.051	.271	2.5	6	-0.9	Tony Rodriguez
Danny Woodrow	.229	.283	.280	53	.051	.302	2.8	8	-1.0	Derwin McNealy
Parker Meadows	.198	.248	.314	50	.116	.261	2.4	4	-1.0	B.J. Garbe
Akil Baddoo	.206	.274	.336	63	.130	.270	3.1	-7	-1.1	Duane Singleton
Joey Morgan	.175	.245	.267	38	.091	.241	2.1	-2	-1.2	Jose Molina
Brock Deatherage	.207	.243	.319	49	.111	.298	2.7	0	-1.2	Alex Presley
Derek Hill	.198	.256	.302	49	.103	.293	2.5	-2	-1.4	Kimera Bartee
Brady Policelli	.210	.264	.342	61	.132	.269	3.0	-12	-1.5	Paul Hoover
Luke Burch	.202	.243	.227	28	.024	.322	1.8	8	-1.8	Michael Harris

Pitchers – Standard

Player	T	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	FIP
Matt Boyd	L	30	11	11	4.55	30	30	164.3	159	83	28	49	179	4.26
Spencer Turnbull	R	28	10	9	4.51	27	27	141.7	141	71	21	58	138	4.68
Matt Manning	R	23	8	8	4.43	25	25	124.0	123	61	18	46	120	4.41
Michael Fulmer	R	28	6	6	4.67	22	22	106.0	111	55	15	33	81	4.57
Dario Agrazal	R	26	8	8	4.99	27	26	137.0	159	76	24	25	92	4.88
Daniel Norris	L	28	7	7	4.79	30	20	109.0	114	58	17	37	100	4.47
Casey Mize	R	24	5	5	4.78	22	22	98.0	105	52	16	27	80	4.71
Tarik Skubal	L	24	7	8	4.91	25	24	110.0	106	60	21	44	119	4.86
Tyler Alexander	L	26	8	9	5.07	31	19	131.3	151	74	26	24	104	4.88
Buck Farmer	R	30	4	4	4.18	68	1	64.7	63	30	8	26	60	4.28
Ivan Nova	R	34	7	8	5.37	22	22	120.7	144	72	24	29	75	5.37
Joe Jimenez	R	26	5	4	4.26	68	0	61.3	58	29	9	23	65	4.34
Joey Wentz	L	23	6	7	5.52	24	24	107.7	114	66	20	52	98	5.39
John Schreiber	R	27	4	4	4.43	55	0	63.0	62	31	9	21	62	4.26
Alex Faedo	R	25	6	8	5.60	23	23	109.3	125	68	27	31	92	5.72
Jose Cisnero	R	32	4	4	4.59	63	0	66.7	63	34	10	34	72	4.73
Nick Ramirez	L	31	4	4	4.89	38	3	70.0	71	38	10	31	59	4.81
Zac Houston	R	26	3	3	4.68	44	1	57.7	52	30	8	34	62	4.81
Alex Lange	R	25	8	10	5.58	27	20	101.7	112	63	15	58	76	5.52
Alex Wilson	R	34	3	3	4.53	47	0	49.7	52	25	8	14	40	4.63
Jordan Zimmermann	R	35	5	6	5.65	19	19	92.3	109	58	20	22	69	5.31
Joe Navilhon	R	27	3	4	4.92	38	2	60.3	66	33	11	17	50	4.89
Nolan Blackwood	R	26	5	5	4.73	47	0	64.7	68	34	7	29	47	4.62
Tim Adleman ???	R	33	5	7	5.77	20	17	96.7	108	62	23	31	80	5.74
Drew Carlton	R	25	3	3	4.86	48	0	66.7	72	36	11	20	50	4.91
Ethan DeCaster	R	26	3	3	4.86	43	0	66.7	74	36	11	20	49	4.94
Beau Burrows	R	24	3	5	5.82	18	14	65.0	75	42	13	31	47	5.95
Bryan Garcia	R	26	3	3	4.91	56	0	51.3	51	28	8	25	47	4.95
Franklin Perez	R	23	0	0	6.75	4	4	10.7	13	8	2	8	6	6.74
Billy Lescher	R	25	3	3	5.43	34	4	58.0	64	35	12	21	46	5.58
Kyle Funkhouser	R	27	4	6	5.93	23	16	74.3	82	49	14	44	62	5.90
Hector Santiago	L	33	3	5	5.79	26	11	77.7	82	50	16	42	72	5.78
Gregory Soto	L	26	3	3	5.11	70	0	61.7	58	35	8	44	62	5.14
Rony Garcia	R	23	6	8	5.92	29	19	100.3	115	66	21	42	75	5.81
Jason Foley	R	25	2	3	5.40	28	0	35.0	39	21	5	17	24	5.29
Shao-Ching Chiang	R	27	6	10	5.95	24	24	124.0	149	82	27	40	84	5.79
Chris Smith	R	32	2	2	5.72	26	0	28.3	31	18	6	11	22	5.76
Logan Shore	R	26	3	5	6.08	21	16	84.3	103	57	17	32	47	6.00
Sandy Baez	R	27	3	5	6.43	29	12	77.0	93	55	17	39	53	6.39

Pitchers – Advanced

Player	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BB%	K%	BABIP	ERA+	ERA-	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Matt Boyd	9.8	2.7	1.5	7.0%	25.6%	.302	99	101	2.0	Mark Redman
Spencer Turnbull	8.8	3.7	1.3	9.2%	22.0%	.302	100	100	1.8	Bill Bonham
Matt Manning	8.7	3.3	1.3	8.5%	22.3%	.302	102	98	1.7	Bill Long
Michael Fulmer	6.9	2.8	1.3	7.2%	17.6%	.295	97	104	1.2	Jim Bagby
Dario Agrazal	6.0	1.6	1.6	4.2%	15.5%	.305	90	111	1.1	Lary Sorensen
Daniel Norris	8.3	3.1	1.4	7.8%	21.1%	.307	94	106	1.0	John Rheinecker
Casey Mize	7.3	2.5	1.5	6.3%	18.8%	.301	94	106	1.0	Marty Janzen ??
Tarik Skubal	9.7	3.6	1.7	9.2%	24.8%	.294	92	109	1.0	Darren Burroughs
Tyler Alexander	7.1	1.6	1.8	4.2%	18.4%	.309	89	112	0.8	Butch Henry
Buck Farmer	8.4	3.6	1.1	9.3%	21.4%	.299	108	93	0.5	Doug Sisk
Ivan Nova	5.6	2.2	1.8	5.5%	14.2%	.302	84	119	0.5	Bob Bruce
Joe Jimenez	9.5	3.4	1.3	8.6%	24.4%	.299	106	94	0.4	David Wilhelmi
Joey Wentz	8.2	4.3	1.7	10.7%	20.1%	.302	82	122	0.3	Derek Thompson
John Schreiber	8.9	3.0	1.3	7.7%	22.8%	.301	102	98	0.2	Rafael Montalvo
Alex Faedo	7.6	2.6	2.2	6.4%	19.1%	.301	81	124	0.2	Tim Kester
Jose Cisnero	9.7	4.6	1.4	11.4%	24.2%	.299	98	102	0.2	Marc Wilkins
Nick Ramirez	7.6	4.0	1.3	10.0%	19.0%	.295	92	108	0.2	Hal Woodeshick
Zac Houston	9.7	5.3	1.2	13.1%	23.9%	.291	96	104	0.1	Clay Bryant
Alex Lange	6.7	5.1	1.3	12.2%	16.0%	.305	81	124	0.1	Edwin Morel
Alex Wilson	7.2	2.5	1.4	6.6%	18.8%	.295	100	100	0.1	Bobby Tiefenauer
Jordan Zimmermann	6.7	2.1	1.9	5.4%	17.1%	.307	80	125	0.1	Jason Johnson
Joe Navilhon	7.5	2.5	1.6	6.5%	19.0%	.302	92	109	0.1	Bill Fischer
Nolan Blackwood	6.5	4.0	1.0	10.0%	16.3%	.300	95	105	0.0	Scott Munter
Tim Adleman	7.4	2.9	2.1	7.3%	18.7%	.295	78	128	0.0	Robert Ellis
Drew Carlton	6.8	2.7	1.5	6.9%	17.2%	.296	93	108	-0.1	Bill Castro
Ethan DeCaster	6.6	2.7	1.5	6.8%	16.7%	.301	93	108	-0.1	Pedro Borbon
Beau Burrows	6.5	4.3	1.8	10.3%	15.7%	.302	78	129	-0.1	Cristhian Martinez
Bryan Garcia	8.2	4.4	1.4	11.0%	20.6%	.295	92	109	-0.1	Miguel Saladin
Franklin Perez	5.1	6.8	1.7	15.4%	11.5%	.306	67	150	-0.1	Carlos Paredes
Billy Lescher	7.1	3.3	1.9	8.1%	17.8%	.295	83	120	-0.1	Dick Coffman
Kyle Funkhouser	7.5	5.3	1.7	12.6%	17.8%	.304	76	132	-0.2	Jesse Jefferson
Hector Santiago	8.3	4.9	1.9	11.8%	20.2%	.297	78	128	-0.2	Johnny Schmitz
Gregory Soto	9.0	6.4	1.2	15.4%	21.7%	.296	88	113	-0.2	Philip Barzilla
Rony Garcia	6.7	3.8	1.9	9.2%	16.5%	.301	76	131	-0.2	Jim Adamczak
Jason Foley	6.2	4.4	1.3	10.6%	15.0%	.304	84	120	-0.2	Steve Barber
Shao-Ching Chiang	6.1	2.9	2.0	7.2%	15.1%	.305	76	132	-0.2	Bill King
Chris Smith	7.0	3.5	1.9	8.7%	17.3%	.291	79	127	-0.3	Mike Barlow
Logan Shore	5.0	3.4	1.8	8.3%	12.2%	.302	74	135	-0.3	Matt O’Brien
Sandy Baez	6.2	4.6	2.0	10.8%	14.6%	.306	70	143	-0.7	Dallas Trahern

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.

2021 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigerson December 15, 2020 at 2:00 pm

2021 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigers

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