1. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (-11.0%)

The Mets brought in Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha this the offseason to add depth to the rotation, depth that proved immediately necessary when Noah Syndergaard having Tommy John surgery. Marcus Stroman‘s torn calf has tested that depth even further, though the team received the good news that he’s already recovered sufficiently to be throwing simulated games. Even assuming Stroman comes back fine in the near future, though, losing deGrom, who ZiPS projects to finish second in the majors in WAR among pitchers, would be difficult to overcome. deGrom can dominate any game he’s in and despite the oddball offseason, his velocity’s actually increased by a couple miles per hour. The Mets can’t replace deGrom’s performance because, literally, nobody can.

2. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (-10.9%)

Mike Trout tends not to do well in this list because usually when I run it, the Angels are already spiraling out of playoff contention. A sixteen-team playoffs gives the Angels a lot of room for error, which they need given their 4-8 start. The Ohtani injury hurts the team further; while his comeback as a pitcher was not guaranteed, his upside possibility was something no other team’s pitching staff can match. Completing the Joc Pederson trade would have given the Angels more outfield depth, but as it is, losing Trout would be the most difficult loss to overcome.

3. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (-9.7%)

This is why Scherzer’s sore hamstring is so worrisome. Stephen Strasburg hasn’t made his 2020 debut and Joe Ross’ opt-out means he never will, leaving Washington’s rotation looking like the shelves of your neighborhood convenience store the day before a hurricane or blizzard. Right now, the projections are assuming a shorter next start for Scherzer; if his hamstring tweak turns out to be worse, it will become a major headache for the team. It hasn’t helped that at 4-5, the Nats haven’t been a particularly hot team in the early going.

4. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (-9.5%)

Nola’s not the most highly paid Phillies player, but he’s the most crucial right now. Losing Nola (or Zack Wheeler) likely results in Spencer Howard or Nick Pivetta taking their playing time. Pivetta’s fine, but he’s a fifth starter and while Howard’s a terrific prospect, he also has very little experience in the high minors.

5. German Marquez, Colorado Rockies (-9.5%)

The Rockies have horrifyingly thin depth on the offensive side past Brendan Rodgers, but they could probably play Aaron Rodgers in the infield and not have problems as long as the pitching continues to barely allow three runs a game. There’s no bigger fan of German Marquez than ZiPS; the projections regularly forecast him in the top 10 for rest-of-career pitching WAR. With 1.89 ERA and 0.8 WAR in three starts, he’s certainly pulled his share of the load this season. Colorado’s not overflowing with pitching depth and losing Marquez could derail their early success.

6. Juan Soto, Washington Nationals (-9.1%)

Losing Scherzer would be a body blow; losing Juan Soto wouldn’t be much better. Soto’s season was delayed by a positive COVID-19 test; he just made his season debut last night, going 2-for-4 with an RBI. The Nats went eight games without Soto’s services, something they’d very much like to not repeat.